Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.
Laboratory studies were conducted at the biological control unit, college of Agriculture, University of Baghdad to evaluate some biological aspects of the predator Chilocorus bipustulatus (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae), which is considered one of the most important predators on many insect pests, especially the scale insect, Parlatoria blanchardi, (Homoptera: Diaspididae) on date palms. The results showed that biological parameters of the predator were varied according to different degree of temperature. Egg incubation period was significantly different and reached to 7.5 and 5.44 day at 25 and 30°C respectively, Fertility was the same 100% at both temperature degrees. Larval growth periods were 17.41 and 16.12 day as well as the mortality
... Show MoreThe research aims to measure the net nominal protection coefficients for the products table eggs and poultry meat and the extent of its impact on domestic production volume for the period of 1990- 2013 has been the use of mathematical formulas simplified in the calculation of the transaction process with a view to the extent of support and protection offered by the state pricing policy for products Resources Sector Animal in Iraq and reach search Highlights and most important, there are volatile price state policy with regard to eggs and poultry meat, as it ranged net nominal protection coefficients between the larger and less than the right one, which means that values are unstable to support local producers or consumers, and can be The
... Show MoreIt is very known how great is the role of the Jewish writers in the system of the Zionist movement. The movement relied on writers and writers to carry out their programs, especially those pertaining to the creation of a "national homeland" for Jews. Most Jewish writers sang of Palestine even though they were not born there.
On such a basis, we have followed closely the writings of writers, critics and others by the end of the nineteenth century and the beginning of the twentieth century. We found that these writings are based on one common question: What is the fate of the Jewish people?
Most of these writings were accompanied by Theodor Herzl's proj
... Show MoreThe e-commerce is one of the best achievements of the twentieth century, since the conduct commercial transactions via the Internet may be the consumer easy selection process and purchase convenient manner different from traditional methods, and with the beginnings of the new millennium impose the emergence of e-commerce term significant challenges to the insurance industry as an important economic sectors Generally, and insurance companies in particular as a result of scientific development, which has led to a reduction in costs and innovation in the production, which led to intense competition on both levels local or global. The insurance industry is a vital part of the economy and it has a varied impact to the community and individual
... Show MoreThe research is based on a statement of the effect and nature of the relationship of elements of promotional mix represented by (advertising, personal selling, sales promotion, public relations and direct marketing) as the independent variable in the dependent variable represented in the competitive advantage in the General Company for the manufacture of medicines and medical supplies Samarra. Analytical descriptive in the theoretical side, through the use of a number of literature from scientific sources (books, research and studies published in Arab and foreign magazines) was also relied on the methodology of the case study in the practical side, Data collection using the questionnaire tool, which was designed using the triangular Like
... Show MoreThe issue of measurement of operational efficiency and productivity plays a major role in determining the weakness of the company, especially in relation to the productive processes, and thus starting to address these points and improve their performance. Hence the problem of research on how to determine the constraints in the production process, to identify weaknesses in the company. The research aims to clarify the role of throughput accounting in measuring the operational efficiency of the company in addition to clarify some of the constraints and causes behind them. The study concluded a set of conclusions, the most important of which is the availability of throughput accounting indicators that help in measuring operational efficienc
... Show MoreBackground: The PMMA polymer denture base materials are low mechanical properties, adaptation of the denture base to underlying tissue is important for retention and stability of denture. The aim of the study was toevaluate the effect of mixtureZrO2-Al2O3 nanoparticles on impact strength, transverse strength, hardness, roughness, denture base adaptation of heat cured acrylic resin denture base material. Materials and methods: One hundred (100) specimens were prepared, the specimens were divided into five groups (20 specimens to each) according to the test type, each group was subdivided in to two subgroups (control and experimental) each subgroup consist of 10 specimens, the experimental group included mixture of 2% (ZrO2-Al2O3ratio2:1) b
... Show MoreBackground: Polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) is the most commonly used material in denture fabrication. The material is far from ideal in fulfilling the mechanical requirements. Midline fracture; poor thermal conductivity and water sorption, are common problem in this material. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of addition of surface treated Aluminum oxide nano fillers on some properties of heat cured (PMMA). Materials and methods: In addition to controlled group of heat cured PMMA the silanized (Al2O3) nanoparticles was added to PMMA powder by weight in three different percentages 1wt%, 2wt% and 3wt%, mixed by probe ultra-sonication machine. 200 specimens were constructed and divided into 5 groups according to the test (e
... Show MoreThe research aims to shed light on the importance of forensic accounting and its role in winning compensation claims against the company because of the ability of the forensic accountant (the judicial expert) to interpret and analyze the data. The research community represents the insurance companies in Iraq. The research sample was represented by the National Insurance Company. Coverage of the theoretical and deductive approach in covering the practical side, based on the financial records of the National Insurance Company for years of research.One of the most important conclusions reached by the researchers was that forensic accounting has a role
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