Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.
The research discusses one of the most critical issues of corporate finance which is related to asset utilization efficiency. Researchers used internal growth rate as independent variable (Proxy of asset utilization efficiency) and sustainable growth rate-dependent variable (proxy of stockholders wealth). According to these two variables, researchers formulate major hypotheses (There is no significant effect of internal growth rate on sustainable growth rate), as well as two sub-hypotheses, examine the components of major variables. Sample of Iraqi industrial companies which listed in the Iraqi stock exchange selected to test and examine main hypotheses. Result of simple and multiple regressions explain there is a significant effect of i
... Show MoreSome physical and chemical characteristics of Jurf Al- Sakar drinking water plant in Babylon governorate have been studied. Seven locations for this plant were selected. These were the drinking water treatment plant source on Euphrates River before entering the plant, precipitation, filtration and collection tanks, and also after leaving the plant at distances of one meter, 4 and 8 km. The samples were collected bimonthly from October, 2002 to August, 2003. Some results match with the national and international standard characters while the other characters (Turbidity, total hardness, calcium, nitrate, phosphate and the biological oxygen demand values) were not match. The present study showed that drinking water treatment plant is undrinka
... Show MoreBackground: Change in palatal vault shape and Reinforcement of high impact acrylic denture base resin may in turn affect the dimensional accuracy of acrylic resin and affecting the fitness of the denture. The aim of study is to evaluate the effect of fiber reinforcement for high-impact acrylic resin denture base with different palatal vault shapes on linear dimensional change and effect of palatal vault shapes on linear dimensional changes of non-reinforced and fiber reinforced high impact denture base acrylic resin Material and method: Three different palatal vault shapes were prepared on standard casts using CNC (computer numerical control) machine. 60 samples of heat polymerized high impact acrylic resin maxillary denture base were fabri
... Show MoreThis study focuses on the biodegradation of oxymatrine insecticide by some soil fungi isolated from four agriculture stations. The results showed that the highest degradation rate 94.66% was recorded by Ulocladium sp. at 10 days and A. niger recorded the lowest degradation rate 45.86%, while at 20 days Ulocladium sp. also showed the highest degradation rate 94.98% and the lowest degradation rate reached to 82.49% with A.niger. The mix (Exerohilum sp.+Ulocladium sp.) recorded the highest degradation rate of oxymatrine insecticide 90.22%, 88.51%, 85.34% at 4, 8 and 12 ppm.The use of mixed isolates enhanced the biodegradation process. There is no study of oxymatrine biodegradation
... Show MoreIt is known that energy subiect has ocuppied a lot of scientests minds about
how to treat the traditional energy and the renewing energy . we know that
most traditional energy coal , oil , Natural gas, neuclear fuel , are limited
guantiy and alsow subjected to be ended .Statics studies refer to reserve
of oil in world will exhausted btween ( 2075- 2100) and alsow cosl too .
While neuclear fuerl which the world seek today through explod the uranium
atom ( 233) the therum atom (239) and neuclear mxied through ruemlear
mixing , These energy have effect on environment and humanity speciaty if
they are used in militery purposes .
For all theses scientests srarch for resources of renewing enery through
researches
This study has been done for testing the effectiveness and efficiency of probiotic in its ability to inhibit Aspergillus flavus , which secretes the aflatoxin B1 and compare it with materials that were approved to be effective in the inhibition of the growth of fungi and break down and reduction of mycotoxin. these are the filax substance and ozone gas. A laboratory experiment has been conducted to determine the isolates out of the fungus producing the aflatoxin B1.the isolate producing aflatoxin B1 has grown on the yellow corn seed. the probiotic was added along with the filax and they have been exposed to ozone gas and then they were stored from 30 days. A bio test was con conducted to knw the effects of biological toxin on the broiler me
... Show MoreOf the importance of the concept of ownership of real estate as the basic basis from which various projects are launched in various economic, tourism, and urban areas .... The need to research the diagnosis of real estate reality went astray in the difficulties, which played a decisive role in the process of urban development.
This leads us to the research problem of the difficulty of implementing urban development plans in many cases due to the absence of a clear methodology for organizing and modernizing the ownership of real estate and its coordination with the management of urban land and to achieve the objective
... Show MoreThe current study is descriptive; it focuses on studying the contemporary geopolitical problem, and sectarian differences in Caucasus. Nagorno-Karabakh is considered an important disputed region nowadays. Many parties and states participated in this dispute, especially after the conflict had developed into an open war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Thus, the study aims to examine the causes of the conflict in this region, analyze the international positions on this conflict, and find if Armenia was able to occupy this region. The methodology adopted by the researchers is the functional approach, and the theory of power analysis that Cohen created for analyzing all strengths that drove each of the parties t
... Show MoreFollowers and their followers (may Allah be pleased with them all) followed the approach of the guidance and the Sunnah of the Messenger of Allah Muhammad (peace be upon him) in the collection and codification of the hadith of the Prophet Muhammad in various Arab and Islamic areas. Subsequent judge Faqih Abu Bakr al-Ansari had a distinct effect during that time immortalized in the pages of our Islamic history in preserving the Sunnah of our great Prophet Muhammad (PBUH) and documenting the constants of Sharia and Islamic jurisprudence and its importance in the activity of intellectual and scientific movement in the Arab Islamic State.
A new ligand [N- (1,5- dimethyl -3- oxo- 2 – phenyl - 2 ,3 – dihydro -1H- pyrazol -4- ylcarbamothioyl) acetamide] (AAD) was synthesized by reaction of acetyl isothiocyanate with 4-aminoantipyrine, The ligand was characterized by micro elemental analysis C.H.N.S., FT-IR ,UV-Vis and 1H-13CNMR spectra, some transition metals complex of this ligand were prepared and characterized by FT-IR, UV-Vis spectra, conductivity measurements, magnetic susceptibility and atomic absorption. From the obtained results the molecular formula of all prepared complexes were [M(AAD)2(H2O)2]Cl2 (M+2 = Mn, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd and Hg),the proposed geometrical structure for all complexes were octahedral.