Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.
Background: Pain and the usage of local anesthetic agents are still real problem in pediatric dentistry, for these reasons, the use of minimal invasive dentistry (MID) in regard to the patient comfort is important especially for children, anxious and uncooperative patients. Chemomechanical caries removal (CMCR) methods involve the selective removal of the carious dentine hence it avoided the painful removal of the sound dentine and the anxiety resulted due to the vibration of the hand piece which is also decreased thus it appears to be more acceptable and comfortable to the patient. Aims of this study: This study was conducted among group of children to assess and compare the anxiety rating scale (during and after treatment) between the
... Show MoreBackground: One of the most common and prevalent oral diseases among adolescents is periodontal disease particularly gingivitis, however enamel anomalies and dental trauma could occur. Aims of the study: This study was conducted among 14-15 years intermediate school male students in urban area of Al-Khalis city to assess the oral hygiene (dental plaque) and to estimate the prevalence and severity of gingivitis, enamel anomalies, as well as traumatic dental injuries, furthermore to show the significant difference between these two ages concerning these oral problems. Materials and methods: In this study the total sample consisted of 735 students (397 aged 15 years and 338 aged 14 years ). In present study dental plaque was recorded accord
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This study is an investigation of the drugs effect on some pathogenic Acanthamoeba isolated from Iraqi waters, where the problem of environmental adaptation that characterizes this organism in addition to being a reservoir for many pathogenic microorganisms that take shelter in it to escape disinfectants and medicines is sometimes difficult to treat it with traditional treatments. Twenty water samples were collected from different water regions in Iraq, namely the Dokan Lake, Tigris River, Euphrates River and Najaf Sea, 5 samples from each source. Acanthamoeba was isolated from water samples on NNA and PYG media, using an inverted microscope with an electron microscope to determine their phenotypic features. PCR and
... Show MoreThis study presents the debonding propagation in single NiTi wire shape memory alloy into linear low-density polyethylene matrix composite the study of using the pull-out test. The aim of this study is to investigate the pull-out tests to check the interfacial strength of the polymer composite in two cases, with activation NiTinol wire and without activation. In this study, shape memory alloy NiTinol wire 2 mm diameter and linear fully annealed straight shape were used. The study involved experimental and finite element analysis and eventually comparison between them. This pull-out test is considered a substantial test because its results have a relation with behavior of smart composite materials. The pull-out test was carried out by a u
... Show MoreThe study aims to evaluate sustainable traffic management strategies for congested intersections in medium-sized Iraqi cities, with a focus on Al-Sa’a Intersection and Al-Jari Street in Hit City. These nodes face severe traffic congestion, delays, and infrastructure limitations that compromise urban mobility and sustainability. A multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) framework was employed to analyze three categories of interventions—engineering, planning, and administrative—based on five weighted criteria: traffic efficiency (40%), delay reduction (25%), cost (20%), environmental impact (10%), and social acceptance (5%). The methodology combined field data collection (traffic counts, travel time, and delays), GIS-based spatial analysis, an
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