Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.
Is a high degree of economic freedom an important part in the development of the economies of developing countries in the last decade of the twentieth century and the beginning of the twentieth century and the atheist. This is because a test subject (deltoid analysis of the relationship between the degree of economic freedom and foreign trade of selected developing countries for the period
( 1990 -2005) to determine the degree of economic freedom in foreign trade promotion in Singapore and Turkey. The research recommends a number of recommendations, the most important is the responsibility of the Ministry of Planning in Iraq that is providing the necessary data for the Fraser Institute, the aim of increasing cooperation
Lead toxicity elicits neurological damage which is a well-known disorder that has been considered to be a major cause for multiple condition such as behavioral defect; mental retardation; and nerve insufficient activity.
This research is designed to estimate potential protective effect of vinpocetine on neurotoxicity stimulated by lead acetate in rats.
Eighteen adult rats of both sexes were randomly enrolled into three groups. Each group includes 6 rats as followings: Group I- Rats were given 0.3ml normal saline solution orally; then intraperitoneal injection of 100μl of the normal saline was given 1h later; this group was considered as control. Group II- Rats were given an intraperitoneal injection of 20mg/kg lead acetate
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The study aims to clarify the impact of the adoption of the International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS16) on lease contracts in the General Iraqi Insurance Company on the financial statements, and thus the impact on financial ratios and indicators, Since the financial reporting standard considers lease contracts as an asset called the right to use the asset and is offset by a liability, this changes the way the financial statements are presented, with an addition to both the asset and liability sides. In order to show the extent to which the adoption of the standard reflects on the financial performance
... Show MoreThe study consisted in the development and use of a practical method to detect and
monitor, analyze and produce maps of changes in land use and land cover in the district of
Mahmudiya in Baghdad during the period 1990-2007 using the applications of remote sensing
techniques and with the assisstant of geographic information systems (GIS),as a valuable
contribution to land degradation studies.
This study is based maiuly on the processing on two subsets of landsat5 TM images picked up
in August 1990 and 2007 respectively in order to facilitate comparision and were thengeometrically and radiometrcally calibrated ,to used for digital classification purposes using
maximum liklihoods classification or six spectral bands of
La disciplina sémantica siendo una rama de la lingüística y relacionada con los significados que residen detrás de los vocablos sería muy intereseante ser estudiada y investigada, sobre todo cuando tratamos de penetrarnos dentro de la evolución semántica y los motivos por los que se suceden estos cambios. Pues, es injusto dejar de dar una definición aclaratoria sobre esta disciplina y sus componentes.
El significado de los léxicos que se forma por un conjunto de semas o rasgos significativos mínimos. Sin embargo, no todos esos semas son igualmente intervenidos por los hablantes de una comunidad lingüística, sino que hay algunos de ellos que siempre están presentes, mientras que otros varían. Es decir, el significado
... Show MoreTwo homopolymeric and three copolymeric additives for base oil were synthesized using octyl acrylate (OA) and tert-butyl acrylamide (TBA) monomers. The two additives named P1 and P2 are the homopolymers of TBA and OA, respectively, whereas copolymeric additives named Co1, Co2, and Co3 were synthesized by varying the ratios of TBA:OA as 1:3, 3:1 and 1:1, respectively. The prepared polymers were characterized by Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR). Based on the solubility of synthesized polymers in base oil and reactivity ratios of TBA/OA copolymer (0.222, 0.434) calculated by Fineman-Ross method, P2, Co1, Co2 and Co3 were selected to evaluate their performance as pour point depressant (PPD), viscosity improver (VII), and anticorrosion addit
... Show MoreThis research shows the importance of Baghdad in the field of urban heritage and was demonstrated in the Ibn al-Fiqh al-Hamdani's book Baghdad the City of Peace in which he focused on many urban aspects and reviewing its historical importance by connecting them with modern events and the role they play in cultural and civilized construction which included: mosques, schools and markets etc. and the service providing institutions and other pillars of the Islamic cities through showing the development back then and its importance as an integral part of the urban and cultural heritage of the Islamic cities in general and Baghdad city in particular.
In his book Baghdad the City of Peace, Ibn al-Faqih Hamadhaani
... Show MoreBackground: The long term survival of dental implants is evaluated by the amount of crestal bone loss around the implants. Some initial loss of bone around dental implants is generally expected. There is reason to believe that reflecting a mucoperiosteal flap promotes crestal bone loss in the initial phase after an implant has been inserted. The surgical placement of a dental implant fixture is constantly changing and in recent years, there has been some interest in developing techniques that minimize the invasive nature of the procedure, with flapless implant surgery being advocated. The purpose of this study was to compare the radiographic level of the peri- implant bone after implant placement between traditional flapped surgery and f
... Show MoreThe objective of this study was to investigate the effect of Royal jelly RJ on morphology and motility of mice sperms. Sperms were collected from the cauda region of the epididymis of each 10 mice from the treatment and control groups. Direct activation techniques and evaluation of sperm morphology were carried out. Dhino microscope was used for sperm measurement. The inspection was carried out in Salamatic laboratory for pathological analysis in 2015.The result revealed that all of the sperm function parameters registered significant activation in the treatment group. There was a significant increase in both the percentage of the sperm motility grade A and the progressive motility (A+B) of the treatment gr
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