Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.
The important factor in the success of construction projects is its ability to objective estimate of the cost of the project and adapt to the changes of the external environment, which is affected by a lot of elements and the requirements of the competitive environment. The faces of those projects are several problems in order to achieve particular goals. To overcome these difficulties has been the development of research in the last two decades and turn the focus on the role of the cost of project management, by providing information and assist management in planning and control of the budget among the main elements of the project, namely, (time-cost-quality),The research aims at the possibility of developing and implementing mechanisms
... Show MoreIn addition to being a religious book with high human and moral themes, Nahj al-Balagha is considered a mirror of Arab culture and a literary masterpiece at the height of eloquence and eloquence, and because proverbs in the form of short, concrete and understandable phrases for everyone, experiences, thoughts and convey ideas, Imam Ali (AS) used it to facilitate the understanding of various political, social and moral concepts. In this article, we intend to criticize the way Dashti, Shahidi and Foladvand translated it by using Newmark's model due to the importance and cultural reflections of proverbs in understanding the cultural atmosphere governing Nahj al-Balagheh. In his evaluation model, Newmark divides cult
... Show MoreJean-Paul Sartre and Badr Shakir al-Sayyabe are among the most prominent writers that critiqued the destructive role of capitalism and the patriarchal power system in the period of the Post-World War II crisis. Divided into three chapters, the present study examines two of the most eminent literary works in the history of the Western and Eastern societies in the fifties of the last decade: Jean Paul Sartre’s play : The Respectful Prostitute and Badr Shaker al-Sayyabe’s poem: The Blind Prostitute.
Chapter one discusses the position of the prostitute in a patriarchal societies. Chapter two linguistically analy
... Show MoreThis study seeks to address the impact of marketing knowledge dimensions (product, price, promotion, distribution) on the organizational performance in relation to a number of variables which are (efficiency, effectiveness, market share, customer satisfaction), and seeks to reveal the role of marketing knowledge in organizational performance.
In order to achieve the objective of the study the researcher has adopted a hypothetical model that reflects the logical relationships between the variables of the study. In order to reveal the nature of these relationships, several hypotheses have been presented as tentative solutions and this study seeks to verify the validity of these hypotheses.
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This paper tackles the theme of alienation as being a concurrent state of human being from birth to death; so extensive is the description of this state by writers. Alienation has been a product of their hard experiences and miserable lives. One such writer is Jean-Marie Gustave le Clézio who was so perfect in describing alienation in his works. Upon so many occasions, he imagined one or more of his characters as living in a chaotic world and so lived safely in alienation. The novel "Le Procès-Verbal" is one of the most important of his works. This paper deals with e the narrative structure of novel while shedding light on the hero's alienation: its essence and causes.
... Show MoreThis research deals with the frameworks and mechanisms of international press coverage of the issue of foreign interference in the formation of the Iraqi government in the Saudi newspapers Asharq Al-Awsat and Kayhan Al-Arabi Iran and how this topic was addressed in the two newspapers. The frameworks for international press coverage of external interference in the formation of the Iraqi government. ”This research is one of the descriptive research that adopted the survey method، which made it possible to use the content analysis tool to analyze
the content of the two newspapers، whose numbers are (624) from the
newspapers (Al-Sharq Al-Awsat Al-Saudi Arabia and Kayhan Al-Arabi Iran) from (1/1/2018 to 31/12/2018)، and the researc
The current work concerns preparing cobalt manganese ferrite (Co0.2Mn0.8Fe2O4) and decorating it with polyaniline (PAni) for supercapacitor applications. The X-ray diffraction findings (XRD) manifested a broad peak of PAni and a cubic structure of cobalt manganese ferrite with crystal sizes between 21 nm. The pictures were taken with a field emission scanning electron microscope (FE-SEM), which evidenced that the PAni has nanofibers (NFs) structures, grain size 33 – 55 nm, according to the method of preparation, where the hydrothermal method was used. The magnetic measurements (VSM) that were conducted at room temperature showed that the samples had definite magnetic properties. Additionally, it was noted that the saturation magnetizatio
... Show MorePolitical Discourse Analysis is an important linguistic study approach used by politicians to gain people support. The present paper sheds light on the figures of speech of emphasis in the televised debate between the two presidential elections candidates, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen and the distinctive effect they add to the political discourse to win general public support as well as the presidential elections.
The present paper provides a rudimentary definition and an analysis of the terms “discourse” and “political discourse” and traces the significant role played by politically directed televised Media and internet to support political pa
... Show MoreThe non-linear components has been emphasized for its multiple applications in rewritable recording and data storage devices. Chalcogenide glasses materials are promising due to their high refractive index. In this paper, alloys for Ge30Te70-xSbxglasses semiconductor (where x =0.0, 5, 10, 15 and 20) will be fabricated by melt quenching method. The effect of partial substitution on DC electric power parameters, and its knowledge of electrical conduction mechanisms, were investigated to determine the effect of Antimony on the density of extended states, local states, and in Fermi energy states. The electrical measurements revealed the existence of three conduction mechanis
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