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A modified time series model using conditional and unconditional estimations with applications to a real dataset
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Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 23 2016
Journal Name
Journal University Of Kerbala
Synthesis and Characterization of Some Metal Complexes of [2-chloro-N-(1,5-dimethyl-3-oxo-2-phenyl-2,3-dihydro-1Hpyrazol-4-ylcarbamothioyl)acetamide] (L)
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A new ligand [ 2-chloro-N- (1,5-dimethyl-3-oxo-2-phenyl-2,3-dihydro -1H-pyrazol- 4- ylcarbamothioyl)acetamide](L) was synthesized by reacting the Chloro acetyl isothiocyanate with 4-aminoantipyrine,The ligand was characterized by(C HNS) elemental microanalysis and the spectral measurements including Uv-Vis ,IR ,1H and13C NMR spectra, some transition metals complex of this ligand were prepared and characterized by Uv-Vis, FT-IR spectra, conductivity measurements, magnetic susceptibility and atomic absorption. From the obtained results the molecular formula of all prepared complexes were [M(L)2(H2O)2]Cl2 (M+2 =Mn, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd and Hg),the proposed geometrical structure for all complexes were octahedra

Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2022
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The jurisprudential aspects of Imam Abu al-Fayyadh al-Basri And its impact on the Shafi’i school of thought, on the rulings of worship
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Summary of the jurisprudence research

  Praise be to God, Lord of the Worlds, and prayers and peace be upon the Master of the Messengers, our master Muhammad, and upon his pure family, and his ignorant and ignorant companions, and those who followed them in goodness until the Day of Judgment.

 Then:

 The many jurisprudential aspects that the Shafi’i imams said are of great importance, because these aspects are nothing but the opinions of venerable jurists who have reached a high degree of knowledge until they have become among the owners of faces. And among them are the Shafi’i jurists, the jurists may differ among themselves, either because there is no text about their imam in a

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The supervisory role of the central bank in the protection of commercial banks: An applied research in the Economy Bank for Investment and Finance
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Represents a supervisory and oversight role of the Central Bank  towards finding a sober banking sector, as the procedures , regulations and laws that the Central Bank insists on its implementation with the utmost precision, and that was to protect depositors and shareholders' class basis rights, but it is in the interest of the bank in the end, as it seeks to improve the performance of commercial banks and vaccinated against falling into the blunders, they also contribute to building a sober and stable banking sector and security contributes to the welfare and employment optimization of economic resources, and treatment of research (and the presence of banks decline in financial performance, according to financial performance indic

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 11 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Level of Psychological Burnout among University Professors in Light of Armed Conflicts in Yemen: Center for Political and Strategic Studies - Sana'a University - Yemen
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The research aims to identify the level of psychological burnout among the professors of Sana’a University in light of the armed conflicts in Yemen. The research sample consisted of (104) faculty members. A descriptive-analytical approach was adopted. The results of the research showed that university professors suffer from psychological burnout at a very high level in the overall score of the scale. There were no statistically significant differences in terms of gender, academic degree, teaching experience, marital status, number of family members, or salary. In light of the results, the researcher presented a number of relevant recommendations and suggestions.

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
EXTENSION ADMINISTRATION PERFORMANCE UNDER QUALITY STANDARDS FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF THE WORKING STAFF IN AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION AND VEGETABLES FARMERS OF CENTRAL GOVERNORATES IN IRAQ
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This research aims to identify the level of extension administration performance under comprehensive quality standards from the perspective of the working staff in agricultural extension at the level of the general extension body and agricultural directorates and agricultural division.this was to identify the extension administration performance under comprehensive quality standards from the perspective of vegetables growers , random sample was selected from the central region governorates Baghdad , Diyala , Babel , karbala and Al-Najaf , a random sample from the workers in the general body numbered 56 employee , sample of staff working in agricultural extension was selected at the level of agricultural directorates in proportion

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 15 2021
Journal Name
Al-academy
Characteristics of the folkloric shapes in the works of the potters Sajida al-Mashayikhi and Siham al-Saudi (acomparative study): وفاء حرب عبد اللطيف
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The research deals with the formal characteristics of folklore in contemporary Iraqi ceramics as a comparative study between the two potters Siham Al-Saudi and Sajida Al-Mashayikhi.
The research consists of four chapters. The first chapter is concerned with the research problem, the importance, the objectives, and the limits of the research, while the aim of the research answers the following question: The method and mechanisms of employing the traditional elements and vocabulary in the products of the potters “Seham Al-Saudi and Sajida Al-Mashaikhi”.
The second chapter came in the theoretical framework of the investigations and includes: The first topic: The second topic the movement in shaping contemporary Iraqi ceramics, whi

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 31 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Communicable Diseases
The Relation between RT-PCR and Chest CT Scan Sensitivity as Tools in the Diagnosis of COVID-19 Patients in Al-Najaf Province, Iraq
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The typical test for diagnosis of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is a reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) technique, but the chest CT scan might play a complementary role at the first detection of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia. Objectives: To determine the sensitivity of CT scan on patients with COVID-19 in Al-Najaf, Iraq, and to compare the accuracy of CT scan with that of RT-PCR technique. Material and Method: This is a prospective study. The patients suspicious of having COVID-19 infection and respiratory symptoms were registered. All patients were diagnosed by RT-PCR and chest CT. Diagnostic performance of CT was intended using RT-PCR as the reference sta

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 31 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Role of Information Technology Competency in Activating of Human Resources Management Practices/ Applied Study in the Informatics and Communications Public Company in Iraq
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This research aims to clarify the role of Information Technology Competency (ITC) with dimensions' (IT Usage, IT Knowledge, and IT Operations) as an independent variable in the activation of Human Resources Management Practices (HRM Practices) as a dependent variable with dimensions' (Training and Development, Recruitment, Job Design, and Performance appraisal). Based on this, the correlation and effect relationships between the independent and dependent variables are determined by formulating two main hypotheses. There are a significant relationship and effect of IT competency with HRM practices within the dimensions. Furthermore, the scope and population of this research are the Informatics and Communications P

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Trends of Fiscal Policy in bearing the financial burden of the government and the Extent Leadership in Iraq during the period 2004- 2014
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Abstract

There has been a heated controversy over the role the financial policy plays and how sufficient   it   is   in affording   the   financial   burden. This   burden   is   known as the operational   current expenses   which   the   governments   of   various countries mainly afford,   despite the   discrepancy   in   the   government’s   economic   policy.   After   the deterioration and deficit in the state budget in all countries nowadays, it was necessary to find an appropri

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 20 2025
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
<b>Commercial Graphite Flakes as an Adsorbent of Janus Green Dye from Aqueous Solution: Adsorption Kinetics and Isotherms Study</b>
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Commercial graphite (CGT) powder was used as an adsorbent surface for cationic dye, Janus green (JG), from aqueous solutions. This study aims to highlight the practical significance of using inexpensive CGT as an efficient adsorbent for the removal of JG dye from industrial wastewater. CGT was characterized by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, scanning electron microscopy, and X-ray diffraction. The adsorption process was investigated by examining parameters like the weight of the adsorbent, contact time, and temperature. Pseudo-second-order kinetic (PSO), pseudo-first-order, and intraparticle diffusion were used for analyzing the kinetic data. JG dye's adsorption kinetics fit the PSO kinetic model well (R2= 0.999). Furthermo

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