Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.
A new ligand [ 2-chloro-N- (1,5-dimethyl-3-oxo-2-phenyl-2,3-dihydro -1H-pyrazol- 4- ylcarbamothioyl)acetamide](L) was synthesized by reacting the Chloro acetyl isothiocyanate with 4-aminoantipyrine,The ligand was characterized by(C HNS) elemental microanalysis and the spectral measurements including Uv-Vis ,IR ,1H and13C NMR spectra, some transition metals complex of this ligand were prepared and characterized by Uv-Vis, FT-IR spectra, conductivity measurements, magnetic susceptibility and atomic absorption. From the obtained results the molecular formula of all prepared complexes were [M(L)2(H2O)2]Cl2 (M+2 =Mn, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd and Hg),the proposed geometrical structure for all complexes were octahedra
Summary of the jurisprudence research
Praise be to God, Lord of the Worlds, and prayers and peace be upon the Master of the Messengers, our master Muhammad, and upon his pure family, and his ignorant and ignorant companions, and those who followed them in goodness until the Day of Judgment.
Then:
The many jurisprudential aspects that the Shafi’i imams said are of great importance, because these aspects are nothing but the opinions of venerable jurists who have reached a high degree of knowledge until they have become among the owners of faces. And among them are the Shafi’i jurists, the jurists may differ among themselves, either because there is no text about their imam in a
... Show MoreRepresents a supervisory and oversight role of the Central Bank towards finding a sober banking sector, as the procedures , regulations and laws that the Central Bank insists on its implementation with the utmost precision, and that was to protect depositors and shareholders' class basis rights, but it is in the interest of the bank in the end, as it seeks to improve the performance of commercial banks and vaccinated against falling into the blunders, they also contribute to building a sober and stable banking sector and security contributes to the welfare and employment optimization of economic resources, and treatment of research (and the presence of banks decline in financial performance, according to financial performance indic
... Show MoreThe research aims to identify the level of psychological burnout among the professors of Sana’a University in light of the armed conflicts in Yemen. The research sample consisted of (104) faculty members. A descriptive-analytical approach was adopted. The results of the research showed that university professors suffer from psychological burnout at a very high level in the overall score of the scale. There were no statistically significant differences in terms of gender, academic degree, teaching experience, marital status, number of family members, or salary. In light of the results, the researcher presented a number of relevant recommendations and suggestions.
This research aims to identify the level of extension administration performance under comprehensive quality standards from the perspective of the working staff in agricultural extension at the level of the general extension body and agricultural directorates and agricultural division.this was to identify the extension administration performance under comprehensive quality standards from the perspective of vegetables growers , random sample was selected from the central region governorates Baghdad , Diyala , Babel , karbala and Al-Najaf , a random sample from the workers in the general body numbered 56 employee , sample of staff working in agricultural extension was selected at the level of agricultural directorates in proportion
... Show MoreThe research deals with the formal characteristics of folklore in contemporary Iraqi ceramics as a comparative study between the two potters Siham Al-Saudi and Sajida Al-Mashayikhi.
The research consists of four chapters. The first chapter is concerned with the research problem, the importance, the objectives, and the limits of the research, while the aim of the research answers the following question: The method and mechanisms of employing the traditional elements and vocabulary in the products of the potters “Seham Al-Saudi and Sajida Al-Mashaikhi”.
The second chapter came in the theoretical framework of the investigations and includes: The first topic: The second topic the movement in shaping contemporary Iraqi ceramics, whi
The typical test for diagnosis of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is a reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) technique, but the chest CT scan might play a complementary role at the first detection of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia. Objectives: To determine the sensitivity of CT scan on patients with COVID-19 in Al-Najaf, Iraq, and to compare the accuracy of CT scan with that of RT-PCR technique. Material and Method: This is a prospective study. The patients suspicious of having COVID-19 infection and respiratory symptoms were registered. All patients were diagnosed by RT-PCR and chest CT. Diagnostic performance of CT was intended using RT-PCR as the reference sta
... Show MoreThis research aims to clarify the role of Information Technology Competency (ITC) with dimensions' (IT Usage, IT Knowledge, and IT Operations) as an independent variable in the activation of Human Resources Management Practices (HRM Practices) as a dependent variable with dimensions' (Training and Development, Recruitment, Job Design, and Performance appraisal). Based on this, the correlation and effect relationships between the independent and dependent variables are determined by formulating two main hypotheses. There are a significant relationship and effect of IT competency with HRM practices within the dimensions. Furthermore, the scope and population of this research are the Informatics and Communications P
... Show MoreAbstract
There has been a heated controversy over the role the financial policy plays and how sufficient it is in affording the financial burden. This burden is known as the operational current expenses which the governments of various countries mainly afford, despite the discrepancy in the government’s economic policy. After the deterioration and deficit in the state budget in all countries nowadays, it was necessary to find an appropri
... Show MoreCommercial graphite (CGT) powder was used as an adsorbent surface for cationic dye, Janus green (JG), from aqueous solutions. This study aims to highlight the practical significance of using inexpensive CGT as an efficient adsorbent for the removal of JG dye from industrial wastewater. CGT was characterized by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, scanning electron microscopy, and X-ray diffraction. The adsorption process was investigated by examining parameters like the weight of the adsorbent, contact time, and temperature. Pseudo-second-order kinetic (PSO), pseudo-first-order, and intraparticle diffusion were used for analyzing the kinetic data. JG dye's adsorption kinetics fit the PSO kinetic model well (R2= 0.999). Furthermo
... Show More