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A modified time series model using conditional and unconditional estimations with applications to a real dataset
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Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 30 2022
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The Imam Shams AL-din Abdulrahman Bin Qudamah AL-Maqdsi (died: 682 A.H) Slections in proving contract annulment choice (AL-tassriah)and its duration
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Abstract

Prais be to Allah the Lord of the Worlds and prayers and peace be upon our faithfull Prophet …. I wrote this Research entitled (The Imam Shams AL-din Abdulrahman Bin Qudamah AL-Maqdsi (died: 682 A.H) Slections in  Slections in proving contract annulment choice (AL-tassriah)and its duration which Iclarrified the reason of choosing this title and my method in writing Morever, a brief  Overriew of the life of Imam Shams AL-din Bin Qudamah and the meaning of (AL-tassriah)and whether it proves to the buyer to return it, beside the duration which (the tassriah) proven, and a conclusion in which I showed the results I reached and some recommendations that some researchers in the field of Jurispruden

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
Energy Procedia
Studying The Effect of The Type of Substrate on The Structural, Morphology and Optical Properties of TiO2 Thin Films Prepared by RF Magnetron Sputtering
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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Leverage and its impact on the profitability of Islamic banks in Iraq: Case Study: Islamic Cooperation Bank for Investment for the years (2015-2018)
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This research deals with leverage and its impact on the profitability of Islamic banks in Iraq for the years (2015-2018), the research variables of leverage have been analyzed and measured as an independent variable, profitability as a dependent variable, and the research is based on a main hypothesis: there is a moral relationship of statistical significance. Between leverage and profitability at The Islamic Cooperation Bank for the period (2015-2018). The results of the research showed that there are moral (exorcist) relationships between the ratio of leverage and profitability indicators, as the higher the leverage ratio, the higher the profitability indicators. In addition, The Islamic Cooperation Bank has adopted a conservative poli

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 02 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effect Of Flexible Grouping Strategy And Three Step Interview Strategy On Achievement Of The History Material Among Student Of The First Intermediate Class
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  The research aims to know The Effect Of Flexible Grouping Strategy  and Three Step Interview strategy on achievement of the history material among student of the first literary class, The Researcher used the experimental design of the two experimental groups and the control group and with post test, researcher group (a) represent the experimental group taught according the Flexible Grouping Strategy  , and Division (c) to represent the second experimental group which studied according Three Step Interview strategy and Division (b ) to represent the control group taught in the traditional method, the number of students (99) students of (33) female students in each division. T

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 11 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Content Assessment of the Sciences Textbooks of Grades (1-4) in the Light of International Standards in Mathematics and Science TIMSS 2019 (Content Dimension)
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The current research aims to determine the requirements of Trends of International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS 2019) and to find out the extent to which the content of science textbooks for grades (1-4) in the Sultanate of Oman includes the requirements of (TIMSS 2019). Only the content dimension has been taken into account when conducting the content analysis. The study population includes all science books from the first to the fourth grade for the academic year 2021-2022. The study identified and organized the requirements in the study tool, which is a list of requirements of (TIMSS 2019). The results showed a general deficiency in all grades (1-4) in the content dimension including many main topics, subtopics, and objectives

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 02 2026
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
An Evaluation of Corrosion Pits in Esthetic Coated Stainless Steel Orthodontic Archwires in Dry and Wet Environment at Different Intervals (An In Vitro Study)
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Background: The demand for esthetic orthodontic appliances is increasing; so the esthetic orthodontic archwires were introduced. Among them, Teflon and Epoxy coated stainless steel archwires. The amount of force available from the archwire depends on the structural properties and susceptibility to corrosion. All metallic alloys are changed during immersion in artificial saliva, chlorhexidine mouthwash andtoothpaste, but their behaviors differ from one type to another. They corrode at different rates, which lead to decrease the amount of force applied to the teeth. This in vitro study was designed to evaluate the corrosion pits in stainless steel archwires coated with Teflon and with Epoxy in dry and after immersion in artificial saliva, chl

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 04 2016
Journal Name
European Journal Of Oral Sciences
Experimental polyethylene-hydroxyapatite carrier-based endodontic system: an in vitro study on dynamic thermomechanical properties, sealing ability, and measurements of micro-computed tomography voids
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The dynamic thermomechanical properties, sealing ability, and voids formation of an experimental obturation hydroxyapatite-reinforced polyethylene (HA/PE) composite/carrier system were investigated and compared with those of a commercial system [GuttaCore (GC)]. The HA/PE system was specifically designed using a melt-extrusion process. The viscoelastic properties of HA/PE were determined using a dynamic thermomechanical analyser. Human single-rooted teeth were endodontically instrumented and obturated using HA/PE or GC systems, and then sealing ability was assessed using a fluid filtration system. In addition, micro-computed tomography (μCT) was used to quantify apparent voids within the root-canal space. The data were statistically analys

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 12 2018
Journal Name
المجلة العراقية لبحوث السوق وحماية المستهلك
BIOLOGICAL ASPECTS AND PREDATORY EFFICIENY OF PREDATOR Chilocorus bipustulatus (L.) COLEOPTERA :COCCINELLIDAE ON DATE PALM SCALE Parlatoria blanchardi (T.) DIASPIDIDAE: HOMOPTERA UNDER LABORATORY CONDITIONS.
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Laboratory studies were conducted at the biological control unit, college of Agriculture, University of Baghdad to evaluate some biological aspects of the predator Chilocorus bipustulatus (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae), which is considered one of the most important predators on many insect pests, especially the scale insect, Parlatoria blanchardi, (Homoptera: Diaspididae) on date palms. The results showed that biological parameters of the predator were varied according to different degree of temperature. Egg incubation period was significantly different and reached to 7.5 and 5.44 day at 25 and 30°C respectively, Fertility was the same 100% at both temperature degrees. Larval growth periods were 17.41 and 16.12 day as well as the mortality du

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The Mechanical Behavior Of Materials
The slenderness ratio effect on the response of closed-end pipe piles in liquefied and non-liquefied soil layers under coupled static-seismic loading
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Abstract<p>This study presents the findings of a 3D finite element modeling on the performance of a single pile under various slenderness ratios (25, 50, 75, 100). These percentages were assigned to cover the most commonly configuration used in such kind of piles. The effect of the soil condition (dry and saturated) on the pile response was also investigated. The pile was modeled as a linear elastic, the surrounded dry soil layers were simulated by adopting a modified Mohr-Coulomb model, and the saturated soil layers were simulated by the modified UBCSAND model. The soil-pile interaction was represented by interface elements with a reduction factor (R) of 0.6 in the loose sand layer and 0.7 in t</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Tue Feb 26 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Role of Managerial Accounting Information System in Improving the Value Chain and its Impaction Evaluation Performance: دراسة حالة في الشركة العامة لصناعة الزيوت النباتية
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The performance measures and traditional methods used in management accounting is no longer able to provide convenient to evaluate the performance of economic units in the modern manufacturing environment information، and so this information is more important and feasibility must be Mistohat of all the company's activities and functions، and it is a problem Find the inadequacy of information management accounting that contribute to meet the needs of the upper levels of management to cope with the problems resulting from the increased size and complexity of the business، and lack of management accounting information and methods used in the performance evaluation، which reflected negatively on the value chain activities and then on the

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