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A modified time series model using conditional and unconditional estimations with applications to a real dataset
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Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2014
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Effect of the fungus Metarhizumanisopliae (Metchnikoff) Sorokin and actelic insecticide in the protection of bean seeds packaged in bag from infection by cowpea beetle
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this study was perform to defined the effect of fungus Metarhiziumanisopliae Sorokin with concentrations 5x101, 5x103 and 5x105 spore/ ml and Actelic insecticide with concentration 0.001% in in rate of germinate treated string bean seeds also study effect of packed bags in two different type: jute and polypropylene bags which treated with fungal suspension pervious mention and insecticide in rate infested the string bean seeds packed in it.Results of the study showed the following: Lower rate of weight loss of cowpea seeds appear in poly propylene bags 4.41, 5.95% after six months of treatment with 5x 105 spore/ ml and Actelic insecticide respectively compared with 15.08% to control treatment. The fungal concentrations and insecticide not

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 24 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Advanced Biotechnology And Experimental Therapeutics
Influence of the high mobility group A1 genetic polymorphism on indices of metabolic syndrome and insulin resistance in the Iraqi population: Case-control study
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The high mobility group A1 gene (HMGA1) rs139876191 variant has been related to metabolic syndrome and type 2 diabetes, but data are lacking in Middle Eastern populations. The study aimed to assess whether the HMGA1 rs139876191 variant is associated with metabolic syndrome risk and whether this variant predicts the risk of insulin resistance. This case-control study was carried out at single center in Kirkuk city/ Iraq from February to August 2022. Polymorphisms in HMGA1 and genotyping were identified by Sanger sequencing of genomic DNA obtained from 91 Iraqi participants (61 patients with metabolic syndrome and 30 control). Lipid profile, serum (glucose and insulin), glycated hemoglobin, blood pressure, body mass index, and waist circumfer

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 02 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effect of Driver and Posner Models in correcting Alternative Perceptions in Educational Psychology Material for the Students at the Institute of Fine Arts
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To achieve the goals, the researcher followed the design of equal and   independent groups of partial control and post-test . The research has chosen the Institute of Fine Arts in the area Almansour area as deliberate sample where three sections of students have been chosen and the   number of students is (69) students. The researcher conducted equivalence in the variables (age, and IQ , and the overall rate for grade III). in diagnostic phase,  (21) concepts of alternative    image out of (46) concepts have been identified in addition to the goals of formulation of acquisition concepts according to the three processes (definition, discrimination and application). Achievement test has been

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 02 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
Spacio-Temporal Relations in the Translated Text in Both Russian and Arabic: Временные и пространственные отношения с текстом перевода на русском и арабском языках
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 The present paper(Spacio-Temporal Relations in the Translated Text in Both Russian and Arabic) focuses on the spacio-temporal effect in the translated text; it is possible to compose the translation text simultaneously with the  process of the composing the original text. This is carried out during the simultaneous consecutive translation. And, the time and place of composing the translation might greatly differ from the time and place of composing the original textt. The translator may tackle a text of an ancient time and written in a language which might have changed, and may thus appear as another language where the author might have talked on behalf of a people who had lived or are living in apparently different geographic

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Re-engineering management processes and its impact on the strategic decision-making process Field study on the College of Education / University of Mustansiriya / Iraq
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The aim of the research is to identify both the re-engineering of management processes and the strategic decision-making process in the research community and determine the nature of the correlation between the two variables and know the relationship between them to achieve the research goal. The researcher used a descriptive and analytical method. The research community consists of a group of professors and staff of the College of Education affiliated to the University of Mustansiriya in Baghdad, which their number were (45),  the researcher has distributed the forms to all members of the sample,  only (3) forms were excluded for invalidity and thus the number of forms approved in the analysis were (42) forms. The rese

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 31 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
Stratigraphic Analysis and Depositional Environment of the Newly Recorded Umm Er Rhadhuma Formation (Paleocene) from the Borehole K.H12/7, South Anah City, Western Iraq
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The Paleocene benthic foraminiferal zonation of the Umm Er Rhadhuma Formation from the borehole (K.H 12/7), South Anah City (Western Iraq), has been re-studied and re-analyzed precisely based on the large benthic foraminifera (LBF). They are represented by two biozone Rotorbinella hensoni Partial Range Zone, recorded from the Lower and middle parts of the Umm Er Rhadhuma Formation and Lockhartia praehaimei Partial Range Zone determined Uppermost of this unit, and dated to be the Selandian – Thanetian stage. Almost all the biogenic (micro and macro) and non-biogenic constituents, including large benthic foraminifera, Algae, Echinoderm, Bryozoans, Oyster, Gastropod fragments, and peloids, in addition to lithofacies types, indicate t

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 13 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Contemporary Risk Factors of High Blood Pressure for Youth Group (18-24) Years for Students of Technical Institute in Baquba and University of Diyala
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Objective: This study aimed to investigate the relationship between high blood pressure and
different variables, such as (weight, smoking, amount of salt and water taken daily, and number
of hours of natural sleep per person) for young people.
Methodology: The study was conducted on students at the student community of the Technical
Institute in Baquba and the University of Diyala during the period from September 2015
until June 2016. The patients ranged in age from 18-24 years. All data were collected through
a questionnaire that included the main reasons and periodic follow-up of the disease.
Results: The total number of samples was 450.The results showed that 33% of all samples
have high blood pressure. The rel

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of public expenditure and public revenue on some of the intangible components of social development in Iraq for the period 1985-2008
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تحتل أدوات السياسة المالية (الإنفاقية والإيرادية) مكانة مهمة بين أدوات السياسات الاقتصادية الأخرى لما تتمتع به من تأثيرات اقتصادية واجتماعية على مجمل النشاط الاقتصادي .

     وفي بحثنا هذا سنركز على الآثار الاجتماعية لأدوات السياسة المالية (الإنفاق العام والإيراد العام) لما للتنمية الاجتماعية من أهمية متزايدة في عالمنا اليوم خاصة فيما يتعلق بمقوماتها غير المادية المتمثلة في خدما

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Empowerment administrative Factors and its impact on Performance of the service organization An analytic Research at the Ministry of Interior – General Directorate of Traffic
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Abstract

The research study about the empowerment as an independent variable, in which details include (training and improvement, incentives, information sharing, trust, and delegation), has also focused on the performance of the service organization as a dependent variable in all dimensions which include (improve work efficiency, building the core competencies, focus on the beneficiary of the service, increasing the feeling of satisfaction of the employees, and the organizational support commitment). The research has been based on the opinions of a chosen sample of 75 service officers of the Ministry of Interior who work at the General Directorate of Traffic. The research problem has been identified by t

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Use of the Regression Tree and the Support Vector Machine in the Classification of the Iraqi Stock Exchange for the Period 2019-2020
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 The financial markets are one of the sectors whose data is characterized by continuous movement in most of the times and it is constantly changing, so it is difficult to predict its trends , and this leads to the need of methods , means and techniques for making decisions, and that pushes investors and analysts in the financial markets to use various and different methods in order to reach at predicting the movement of the direction of the financial markets. In order to reach the goal of making decisions in different investments, where the algorithm of the support vector machine and the CART regression tree algorithm are used to classify the stock data in order to determine

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