Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.
There are many problems facing the economic entities as a result of its mass production &variation of its products , the matter which had increased the need & importance of cost accounting which is regarded a main tool for the managerial control.
The actual costing system is unable to meet the contemporary management needs ,so the Standard costing system appear to provide the management with required information to perform its functions by the best use& way.
This research aims to determine the standard cost for the direct material for oil extraction activity by applying it in the north oil company.
يعد علم التدريب الرياضي الحديث عملية تربوية علمية مبنية على اسس صحيحة هدفها وصول اللاعبين الى التكامل في الاداء الفني وهذا يتم عن طريق التأثير المنظم والدقيق بواسطة استعمال التمارين البدنية التي تحدث تغيرات خاصة في عمل اعضاء واجهزة جسم الرياضي والتي بدورها تؤدي الى رفع كفاءة الاعضاء والاجهزة لتحقيق الانجازات الرياضية العالية ولقد استعملت الباحثتان اسلوب حديث من اساليب التدريب الرياضي من اجل تطوير تحم
... Show MoreObjective: The study aims at evaluating the psychological support and discharge plan from the hospital provided by nurses for woman undergone hysterectomy.
Methodology: The study uses descriptive design and non-probability (convenient) sample which is consisted of (40) nurses from (8) teaching hospitals in the City of Baghdad within the maternity wards. The study is carried out from 11 November 2020 to 27 June 2021. A observational tool is developed to evaluate the psychological support and the discharge plan after surgery. Content validity and internal consistency reliability are determined through pilot study. Data are collected through the use of the questionnaire and data are analyzed through the use of descriptive and inferentia
This research was carried out to evaluate the activity of crude juice of Olive on some cytogenetic parameters in mice like chromosomal aberration (CAs) and micronuclei formation(MN). The results showed that there was no significant difference between the crude juice (green and black)in CAs(3.77,4.10)and MN(0.25,0.25) in comparison with negative control (3.39,0.22)respectively. The interaction effect between the crude before and after treatment with mutagen MMC showed that the crude is one of the vital inhibitors of the mutagen by its ability in reducing the percentages of both the CAs and MN in bone marrow cells in mice.
The study aims to investigate the effectiveness of cognitive-behavioral counseling in reducing symptoms of social anxiety and improving social skills among a sample of intermediate school students in the city of Souq Al-Shuyukh at Dhi Qar Governorate. The sample consisted of (40) female students, their ages ranged (14-15). They were selected based on their high scores on the social anxiety scale. The sample was divided into two groups: an experimental group, and a control group, equal in number (20) students in each group. The researcher used the social anxiety scale and the social skills scale. In addition, he used the cognitive-behavioral counseling program, consisting of (11) counseling sessions, with a rate of (45) minutes per sessio
... Show MoreBackground: Bone mineral density has been assessed using Dual-Energy X-Ray Absorptiometry. Bone mineral density is measured according to the results of the Dual-Energy X-Ray Absorptiometry examination of the vertebral column and pelvis. Although diabetes mellitus type II (DM) is known to affect bone mineral density, at the present time this particular relationship is not clear. Objective: The aim of current study was to evaluate the effects of type II diabetes mellitus on bone mineral density of the upper and lower limbs as well as gender differences. Patients and Methods: This study involved 165 patients complaining of bone pain (85 males and 80 females), 85 patients of who suffered from diabetes, involving both genders. In addition,
... Show MoreThe current research aims to reveal the impact of the strategy of cooperative integration of fragmented information in the acquisition of physical concepts and science processes among fourth scientific students through the null hypotheses:
1- There is no statistically significant difference at the level of significance (0.05) between the average grades of female students of the experimental group studying physics according to the strategy of cooperative integration of fragmented information and those who follow the traditional method in the test of acquiring physical concepts.
2-There is no statistically significant difference at the level of indication (0.05) between the average grades of female students of the experimen
... Show MoreA new series of chalcone derivatives featuring an oxadiazole-quinoline moiety were successfully synthesized through a multi-step reaction sequence, commencing with quinoline-2-carboxylic acid as the starting material. First, the carboxylic group was chlorinated to form an acid chloride, following reacted with hydrazine hydrate. The resulting product underwent cyclization with carbon disulfide in an alkaline solution to produce 5-(quinolin-2-yl)-1,3,4-oxadiazole-2-thiol, followed by alkylation using chloroacetone. In the final step, an aldol condensation reaction was carried out by grinding the acetone derivative with various aromatic aldehydes, yielding the desired chalcones. The synthesized compounds were characterized by Rf, FTIR,
... Show MoreThe emergence of artistic movements in Western countries was after the period of modernity. They have introduced a great dialectical problem at the level of thought and discourse, which necessitated a change in the course of the aesthetic discourse into new visions. Thus, the present research aims to identify the aesthetic discourse of pop artists' Art and its representations in the outputs of the students of the Department of Art Education. The theoretical framework included two sections: the first one, what is the aesthetic discourse and the second is the educational bases of the students' outputs. The procedures of the current research included the analytical descriptive approach. The research sample consisted of (4) outputs chosen ac
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