Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.
The research aims to how to deal with certain situation to ensure the continuous competitive excellence of business market under the situation of covid-19, especially how to deal with major challenges, identifying the capabilities of tourism industry, investigating the ability of tourism agencies to resist the dynamic change of both internal as well as external environment to ensure their sustainability.
The important here as the paper notice, is how to be efficient and trying to find solutions in order to grow and survive through choosing certain strategies that aligned the critical issues.
Thus to achieve this level, many scenarios planed that could adopt in case of such pande
... Show MoreWith the increase in competition between insurance companies in addition to the increasing numbers in the number of insurance companies, whose number decreased to (32) private companies until the end of the year (2020). The blue ocean at the level and its effects on increasing the market share. Therefore, the two researchers tested the hypothesis and the research concluded that there is a relationship A .Also the researcher put some recommendations the most prominent is that the invention is considered one of the successful strategies an d the company has to encourage the employees according to inventive thoughts
In this work, the preparation of new multidentate Schiff-base lig and and its metal complexes are described. The formation of the lig and{ 2,2`((5-methyl-1,3-phenylene)-bis-(oxy))-bis-N`(E`)-2- hydroxybenzylideneacetohydrazide}[H2L] was prepared from the reaction {2,2-((5-methyl-1,3-phenylene)-bis-(oxy))- di-(acetohydrazide)}[M]precursor and salicylaldehyde in a 1:2 mole ratio, respectively. The reaction of the lig and [H2L] with (Cr+3 , Mn+2 and Fe+2 )metal ions in a 1:2 (L:M) mole ratio. Ligand and complexes were characterised via spectroscopic analyses; [FT-IR, UV-Vis spectroscopy,(C.H.N) microanalysis, chloride content, thermal analysis(TG), electrospray mass, magnetic susceptibility and conductivity measurements. The characterisation d
... Show MoreResults showed high efficiency of the predator Chrysoperla carnea (Stephens) to attack and consume nymphal instars and adults of cabbage aphid, Brevicoryne brassicae (L.).The total average of the nymphal instars consumed by the larval stage of predator were 308.67, 285.9, 198.77, 154.7 for 1st ,2nd ,3rd ,4th nymphal instars respectively .While it was 110,107.9 for apterae and alatae respectively . Also, predation efficiency increases with the progress of the larval instars up to the third (last) which was the most voracious .The 1st instar nymph consumed by the larvae of the predator were 47,80,181.67 nymphs ,with predation rate of 14.71% , 23.75% and 50.13% for 1st ,2nd and 3rd larval instars
This research cancellations in life insurance policies and their impact on the solvency of the insurance companies (Applied Research in the Iraqi general insurance company), The study was descriptive approach in identifying and addressing variables which consists of {cancellations in life insurance} independent variable, the financial solvency of insurance companies as the dependent variable, and for the purpose of achieving the objectives of the research were formulated one hypothesis has been tested in the Iraqi insurance company, the researcher used the financial statements in the collection data needed for the study and information . The research found a number of conclusions highlighted that inflation, as well as economic variables
... Show MoreThe study aimed to identify the awareness degree of teacher students in the department of Arabic language and their supervisors at Al-aqsa University for their future roles in the age of knowledge. To achieve this objective, descriptive- analytical approach was used. The instruments of this study were two questionnaires: first one consist of (20) item for teacher students, and the second consist of (27) item for educational supervisors which covered three roles: professional, technological, and humanitarian. The sample was (120) student selected randomly, and (39) supervisors of Arabic language. The result revealed that the mean of degree awareness of teacher students and their supervisors of future role are (3.857), (3.472) respectively
... Show MoreThe study was conducted out at the Ministry of Agriculture's Poultry Research Station/Animal ResourcesDepartment/Agricultural Research Center. To see how body weight (BW) and leptin hormone (LEP) levels inbreeder blood affect fertility and hatchability. 140 Iraqi local laying chickens (120 females + 20 males) aged 28weeks were used in the study. Following the numbering of The experiment was divided into three periods,each lasting 28 days, during which the breeder's live body weight was recorded and divided into two categories(greater than 1.5 kg and less than 1.5 kg), and blood samples were collected at the end of each period todetermine the concentration of leptin hormone in the breeders' blood. For comparison between mothers'performance,
... Show MoreAbstract\
The value chain analysis is main tools to achieve effective and efficient cost management; it requires a depth and comprehensive understanding for all internal and external activities associated with creating value. Supply chain as apart of value chain, that means managing it in active and efficient can achieve great results when adopting a comprehensive and integrated performance for these two chains activities. The research aims to identify possible ways to integrate the performance of value and supply chains of the sample" Kufa-cement plant" and determine the effect of this integration in enhancing customer value. The research arrival that logical and integrated analysis of value and supply chains helps
... Show MoreThe experiment was carried out in the green house of botanical garden belong to Department of Biology/College of Education for Pure Science- Ibn–al- Haitham/University of Baghdad, for the growth season 2015 using plastic pots. The experiment aimed to study the effect of two concentrations of sodium chloride (50, 100) mM.L-1 in addition to the control and four concentrations of kinetin (25, 50, 75, 100) mg.L-1 in addition to the control and the influence of application and non application of fertilizlizer NPKZn in the level 160 kg.h1- and their interactions on some growth parameters (fresh weight for both root and vegetative part, dry weight for leaves , value of secondary productivity, biomass duration for vegetative part and dry weight f
... Show MoreThe levels of circulating angiogenic and anti-angiogenic factors, namely vascular endothelial growth factor–A (VEGF-A) and soluble vascular endothelial growth factor receptor-1 (sVEGFR-1), have been linked to the development of renal dysfunction due to the proliferation of microvasculature within the kidneys of type 2 diabetic (T2DM) patients. The study aims to scrutinize serum levels of VEGF and sVEGFR-1 in a sample of Iraqi diabetic nephropathy patients to support their reliability as markers for the prediction of nephropathy in type 2 diabetes mellitus patients as well as to assess the ACE inhibitor’s effect on the levels of these two markers. Method: The ninety participants of this case-control study were split into three gr
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