Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.
This research aims to measure the productivity of nursing services and recognize the reality of providing such services in some public hospitals in the province of Diyala, as well as identify the most important factors affecting the productivity of nursing services, and developer measure adopted by the researcher (Kien, 2012), which includes seven factors (workforce , management team, stimulation, pressure of working hours (time), material / equipment, supervision, safety), Used the experimental method in the search, one of the private scientific research curriculum depends primarily on the scientific experiment and study of the subject, or a scientific phenomenon, which provides an opportunity to learn the facts
... Show MoreBackground: Bone mineral density (BMD) has been assessed using Dual-Energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA). This procedure is considered to be of vital importance in assessing the general condition of individuals concerning their skeletal mineralization. BMD is measured according to the results of the DEXA examination of the vertebral column and pelvis. Although diabetes mellitus (D.M.)is known to affect BMD, the information regarding this relationship is not currently particularly clear. Objective: This study concentrates on the point that the assessment of BMD for the vertebral column is insuffi-cient to give a realistic and correct picture of the mineralization of the remaining part of the skeleton. Besides, this study elicited a gen
... Show MoreThe contemporary art culture is considered a resultant of preceding human civilizations from the early days. At the same time, it got closer to the local privacy, because the contemporary Iraqi potter worked hard to create new art, refusing to base his art on the early works, creating art pieces that contains properties to inherited art and their form significance, in order to create a new identity of his own, bringing an empowerment to his deepened civilization, with the goal to create national identity ideas from one hand, and entity and locality from another. Europeans also followed the direction of our civilization, such as (Picasso, Henry Moore, Barbra Hurth, Brankouzi, Hans Arp,..etc). From this point of view comes the importance o
... Show MoreBackground: Lung cancer is a common disease for patients over the age of 50 years, especially males due to smoking habits. This study aimed to compare the modulation complexity score (MCS) for the advanced treatment planning techniques which the intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) and volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT). Materials and Methods: Thirty patients who had non-small lung cancerous tumors on their left side participated in this study. The range ages were 68 to 98 years, the heights were between 151 and 182cm and they having weights from 46 to 79 kg. For Each patient will create two plans dial using two different techniques, which will be Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy (IMRT) and Volumetric Modulated Arc Therapy
... Show MoreThe yellow scale insect
Introduction and Aim: Klebsiella pneumoniae is a Gram-negative bacterium responsible for a wide range of infections, including respiratory tract infections (RTIs). This research was aimed to study the antibacterial and anti-biofilm effect of AgNPs produced by Gram positive and negative bacteria on RTIs associated with K. pneumoniae. Materials and Methods: The biofilm formation of K. pneumoniae was determined by tube method qualitatively from select bacterial species characterized by UV-Visible spectroscopy. The antibacterial susceptibility of the bacteria AgNPs was tested for their antibacterial and antibiofilm activity on a clinical isolate of K. pneumoniae. Results: K. pneumoniae isolated from RTIs were strong biofilm prod
... Show MoreThe research aims to determine the impact of employees’ retention strategy on organizational memory. This research is historical, descriptive, and analytical. The sample consists of 158 faculty members in five private colleges in Baghdad. The technique used to analyze the data is SEM (Structural Equation Modeling), and SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences). The research concludes that the employees retaining strategy plays a vital role in retaining employees and hence maintains organizational memory. The findings and recommendations of this research assure the administrations of private colleges that employees retention strategy play a vital role in retaining its employee and hence maintains organizational memory. T
... Show MoreThe exercise of activities and sports are of great importance to public health and to maintain the ideal health weight as well as the psychological and mental comfort of humans. The aim of this study is to determine the contribution and participation of educated females in physical activities at the University of Baghdad hall for the years 2011-2016, and to show the factors that influence women's contribution to physical activities at the university by selecting 100 students of males and 100 females' students randomly. During the questioning questions and statistical analysis of the questioning to find out the reasons for the discouraging contribution of the women to the various physical activities and try to find solutions and r
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