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A modified time series model using conditional and unconditional estimations with applications to a real dataset
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Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 15 2020
Journal Name
Al-academy
The political dimension in the speech of the director, author (Dawoud Abdel Sayed) Citizen film, informant and thief (amodel): احمد جبار عبد الكاظم
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The research addresses the questioning of political loads in a cinematic model from the films of the author (David Abdel Sayed), who has been busy throughout his films in criticizing political power, where he presented protests visions her body the artistic composition of cinematic means of expression through artistic treatments that facilitate the representations of modernity in contemporary cinematic trends, and by this Several contemporary cinematic criticism is an example of a thinker cinematographer who presents his critical thesis on power politics through the composition of the film (material - form - expression). The research consisted of four chapters. The first was a methodological framework that included the research problem o

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 15 2020
Journal Name
Al-academy
The aesthetics of the design idea and its communicative role in the graphic achievement: انتصار رسمي موسى-دينا محمد عناد -سحر علي سرحان
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The field of graphic design has witnessed a unique, unique form transformed in its construction and installation and superior to systems through its creation of foundational data for design ideas with functional aesthetics and utilitarianism and effective and moving formulation in light of modern trends and what globalization has brought about in terms of openness to the outside world and the processes of communication and communication with the international community through graphic design. Based on the above, this study marked (Aesthetics of the Design Idea and its Communication Role in the Graphic Outcome) comes to clarify the topic through three chapters, including the first chapter, which was devoted to the research methodology, th

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2011
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Effect of cultar, potassium and salinity of irrigation water on some characteristics of vegetative growth of two cultivars of apricot (Prunus armeniaca L.)‏
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Publication Date
Mon Sep 02 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of The American Oil Chemists' Society
Direct application of tungstosilicic acid hydrate for the treatment of high free fatty acid in acidic crude palm oil and for biodiesel production
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Abstract<p>This study explored the use of industrial acidic crude palm oil (ACPO) for biodiesel production, facing a significant obstacle due to its high free fatty acid (FFA) content, which complicates the biodiesel production process. Typically, esterification is employed to convert FFAs into fatty acid methyl ester (FAME). Herein, the effectiveness of tungstosilicic acid hydrate (TSAH) as an unsupported heteropoly acid (HPA) catalyst for FFA esterification in ACPO was investigated. The FFA content was reduced from 8.43% to 0.95% under optimum conditions (4 wt% catalyst dosage, a methanol to oil molar ratio of 10:1, 150 min and a temperature of 60°C). Noteworthy, the TSAH catalyst showed stability over 7</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The availability of the internal mechanisms of corporate governance and the Contexts of workof the Federal Board of Supreme Audit of Iraq (BSA (
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The research focuses on addressing one of the most important concepts of modern management that deal with the relationship between government institutions and stakeholders, Which now occupies a special significance in trends modern management, a concept of corporate governance it takes the internal mechanisms due to its key role and is important in the process of corporate governance and looking for building Effective mechanisms for this concept in light of laws and regulations that are available in the local environment and on the functioning of government institutions, Search has been applied in the Federal Board of Supreme Audit of Iraq (BSA) due to its particular importance as an institution control and as a awaits the societ

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2025
Journal Name
International Journal Of Physiology, Sports And Physical Education
The effect of compound exercises supported by information technology (GPS Ubiko and Polar verity senses) on the development of endurance in football players
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Publication Date
Sun Feb 10 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Samples of Al Samarqandi’s Selection in some of Washing Laws and the touch of the Grecians Quran in his book (The scholars’ Masterpiece)
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The Research is interested in the detailed comparative study of certain selection of
Imam Alsamarqandi in some subjects of washing and touching the Gracious Quran.
The value of this study is that it is related to one aspect of the duties obliged on Muslim
like parity.
The study has tried to collect certain scholars’ opinions of eight doctrines with the
selection of Alsamarqandi to make a comp arson between them and to show how
Alsamarqandi is able to create legal laws from his sources to lead the researchers nto have
knowledge about the syllabi of the famous scientists.
Finally we ask God to bless to what is right and to accept this study and make it part of
our good deeds, Ameen.

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of Internal Audit Standards IIA`s in improving the local guideline and its reflection on the efficiency of internal audit performance
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The function of internal auditing has become an important function that aims at achieving objectives that are compatible with these developments and changes that have occurred in many countries in the world, which required the emergence of professional associations and institutes in the profession of internal auditing. Improve the guideline of the internal audit units issued by the Federal Audit Bureau to enhance the efficiency of internal audit performance in Iraqi government units. The researchers adopted the statistical method of proving the hypothesis by constructing a questionnaire that included three main axes: supporting the senior management in adopting the current guide, and the second being the importance of improving t

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2011
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Studying the Effect of Addition Particles of Alumina (Al2O3) and Zirconia (ZrO2), on Some Mechanical Properties for Matrix Composites (Al-Si-Mg) Alloy
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This study is concerned with the effect of adding two kinds of ceramic materials on the mechanical properties of (Al-7%Si- 0.3%Mg) alloy, which are zirconia with particle size (20μm > P.S ≥ 0.1μm) and alumina with particle size (20μm > P.S ≥ 0.1μm) and adding them to the alloy with weight ratios (0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8 and 1%). Stirring casting method has been used to make composite material by using vortex technique which is used to pull the particles to inside the melted metals and distributed them homogenously.

After that solution treatment was done to the samples at (520ºC) and artificial ageing at (170ºC) in different times, it has been noticed that the values of hardness is increased with the aging time of the o

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 30 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Evaluation the Effect of Velocity and Temperature on the Corrosion Rate of Crude Oil Pipeline in the Presence of CO2/H2S Dissolved Gases
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In this paper investigate the influences of dissolved CO2/H2S gases, crude oil velocity and temperature on the rate of corrosion of crude oil transmission pipelines of Maysan oil fields southern Iraq. The Potentiostatic corrosion test technique was conducted into two types of carbon steel pipeline (materials API 5L X60 and API 5L X80). The computer software ECE electronic corrosion engineer was used to predict the influences of CO2 partial pressure, the composition of crude oil, flow velocity of crude oil and percentage of material elements of carbon steel on the rate of corrosion. As a result, the carbon steel API 5L X80 indicates good and appropriate resistance to corrosion compared to carbon steel API

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