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A modified time series model using conditional and unconditional estimations with applications to a real dataset
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Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 02 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Comparative Histological Study of the Stomach in Two Species of Iraqi Vertebrates (Magpie Pica pica L. and Small Asian Mongoose Herpestes javanicus E.)
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          A histological study showed the wall of the stomach in Pica pica and Herpestes javanicus consists of four layers: mucosa, submucosa, muscularis externa and serosa. Also, the present study showed many  differences in the histological structures of the stomach for each in both types. The stomach of P. pica consists of two portions: the proventiculus and gizzard, while the stomach of H. javanicus consists of three portions: cardiac, fundic and pyloric regions. The mucosa layer formed short gastric folds, named plicae. In the proventiculus of P. pica, sulcus is found between each two plicae, but the folds called gastric pits in the gizzard, which are full with koilin. Lamina properia in both types contained gastric g

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of business incubators represented by the banking system in financing small and medium enterprises in Iraq for the period 2000-2010
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The process of transformation from the central economy to a free economy requires restructuring the economy according to a new economic philosophy that relies on activating the role of private economic activity in which private and medium-sized institutions occupy an essential axis for their active role in the economies of all countries, especially those countries that have directed towards the market mechanism and sector leadership. The special process of economic development and the role that commercial banks can play in advancing the financing of these projects by establishing specialized business incubators for financing.

What encouraged countries to pay attention to these institutions is the ease of

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 20 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
An Experimental Study of the Server-based Unfairness Solutions for the Cross-Protocol Scenario of Adaptive Streaming over HTTP/3 and HTTP/2
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Since the introduction of the HTTP/3, research has focused on evaluating its influences on the existing adaptive streaming over HTTP (HAS). Among these research, due to irrelevant transport protocols, the cross-protocol unfairness between the HAS over HTTP/3 (HAS/3) and HAS over HTTP/2 (HAS/2) has caught considerable attention. It has been found that the HAS/3 clients tend to request higher bitrates than the HAS/2 clients because the transport QUIC obtains higher bandwidth for its HAS/3 clients than the TCP for its HAS/2 clients. As the problem originates from the transport layer, it is likely that the server-based unfairness solutions can help the clients overcome such a problem. Therefore, in this paper, an experimental study of the se

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Use sensitivity analysis in evaluating projects Investment under the conditions of risk and uncertainty Case study of glass bottles project in Anbar province
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This paper studies the investment project evaluation under the condition of uncertainty. Evaluation of investment project under risk and uncertainty is possible to be carried out through application of various methods and techniques. The best known methods are : Risk-adjusted discount rate , certainty equivalent method , Sensitivity analysis and Simulation method The objective of this study is using the sensitivity analysis in evaluation Glass Bottles project  in Anbar province under the condition of risk and uncertainty.

After applying sensitivity analysis we found that the glass bottles project  sensitive to the following factors (cash flow, the cost of investment, and the pro

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Publication Date
Mon May 01 2017
Journal Name
The Journal Of Immunology
Attenuation of Staphylococcal enterotoxin-B (SEB)-induced lung injury (ALI) by resveratrol results from miR-193a down-regulation and alterations in metabolic profile
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Abstract<p>Resveratrol, (RES), a phytoalexin, is well-known for its anti-inflammatory and anti-oxidant properties. SEB, a superantigen, is known to trigger ALI and cause mortality. In the current study, we tested the effect of RES in a dual-dose model of SEB exposure that triggers ALI and causes 100% mortality in C3H/HeJ-mice. The data revealed RES attenuated SEB-induced ALI and prevented mortality. Forty eight hours post-SEB exposure, lung-infiltrating mononuclear cells were tested for microRNA expression profile to determine the epigenetic regulation by resveratrol. SEB-activated splenocytes were pre-treated with 50 μM of RES or vehicle for metabolic profile analysis by measuring oxygen consu</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Wed Feb 22 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
The Effect of Short Range Correlation on The Nuclear Charge Density Distribution, Elastic and Inelastic Electron Scattering Coulomb Form Factors of 18O Nucleus
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The effect of short range correlations on the inelastic longitudinal Coulomb form
factors for the lowest four excited 2+ states in 18O is analyzed. This effect (which
depends on the correlation parameter β) is inserted into the ground state charge
density distribution through the Jastrow type correlation function. The single particle
harmonic oscillator wave function is used with an oscillator size parameter b. The
parameters β and b are, considered as free parameters, adjusted for each excited state
separately so as to reproduce the experimental root mean square charge radius of
18O. The model space of 18O does not contribute to the transition charge density. As
a result, the inelastic Coulomb form factor of 18

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The use of two indicators of market value-added and return on capital invested in measuring the performance of the Iraqi banking sector
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For a long time, the intensification of profit represented a major goal for the company management ,but this goal confirmed a series of restrictions such the constriction on short period, the time rather than on long and medium strategic goal, the relationships with customers ,the supplies, employees , This goal is replaced by another one (intensification of the company's value) ,and the fortune of the share holders itself ,for the purpose  of creating value, the company must generate  great outcomes to cover the operating expense and to insure the a suitable compensation to the invested capital (the market value added) is  the indication used to estimate the company ability to create value –added the development

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Publication Date
Sat Aug 13 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The efficiency of the tax examiner and its impact on discovering the artificial adjustment of profits: Applied research in the General Tax Authority
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The aim of the research is to measure the length between the variable the efficiency of the tax examiner with its dimensions represented by (scientific questions, practical process (experience), training and development, impartiality and independence, ethics of the profession) and the approved variable discovering the artificial adaptation of profits, and the degree of arrangement of those dimensions its importance and priority, and the research problem has been identified  In a main question that is there any effect of copying the images of the image examiner in discovering the adaptation, the financial statements and reports of the companies (X, Y) and the banks (A, B) were relied on in the interpretation of the results, t

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Publication Date
Sat Mar 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The exercise of citizenship behaviors and their impact on customer loyalty: Analytical study from the standpoint of employees in the National Insurance Company
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The exercise of citizenship behaviors and their impact on customer loyalty (An analytical study from the perspective of workers in the National Insurance Company).

The Research aims to find out the degree of customers National Insurance company for customer citizenship behavior and its impact on the level oh loyalty from the perspective of employess in the company, as well as the statement of the differences in the answers of employees according to their personality traits. To achieve the goals of research has been the use of the questionnaire as a tool for the collection and distribution of data on a sample of (90) individuals, as was the use of statistical program (SPSS) in the process of statistical analysis methods (mean, sta

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Effect of Zinc (Zn) -Doped on the Structural, Optical and Electrical Properties of (Cdo)1-Xznx Films Prepared by Pulsed Laser Deposition Technique
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Pure cadmium oxide films (CdO) and doped with zinc were prepared at different atomic ratios using a pulsed laser deposition technique using an ND-YAG laser from the targets of the pressed powder capsules. X-ray diffraction measurements showed a cubic-shaped of CdO structure. Another phase appeared, especially in high percentages of zinc, corresponding to the hexagonal structure of zinc. The degree of crystallinity, as well as the crystal size, increased with the increase of the zinc ratio for the used targets. The atomic force microscopy measurements showed that increasing the dopant percentage leads to an increase in the size of the nanoparticles, the particle size distribution was irregular and wide, in addition, to increase the surfac

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