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A modified time series model using conditional and unconditional estimations with applications to a real dataset
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Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 29 2017
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
The Role of Some Inflammatory Markers (IL-6 and CRP) in the Pathogenesis of Acute Coronary Syndrome in Iraqi CCU for Heart Diseases
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In this work an enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) technique has been used for detection of some inflammatory markers in serum of acute coronary syndrome (ACS)-Patients Admitted to the cardiac care unit (CCU) of Iraqi Centre For Heart Diseases and Ibn AlNafees Teaching Hospital. The present method includes quantitative measurement of interleukine-6 (IL-6) and C-reactive protein (CRP), as their increase during symptoms may be responsible for identifying the mechanism of myocardial damag, in addition to their best performance than other quantitative tests perhaps due to their association with atherosclerotic process that belongs to the endothelial dysfunction. Aim of this study is to estimate the prevalence and correlation of IL-6 w

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 30 2012
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Success rate of Percutaneous Coronary Intervention of Chronic Total Occlusion in Ibn Al-Baitar Hospital for cardiac surgery and Al-Nassyeria cardiac center
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Back ground: Chronic total occlusion (CTO) of coronary arteries remains one of the most challenging lesion subsets in interventional cardiology even with the development of medical devices and operator expertise. Successful revascularization results in improved in angina status ,increased exercise capacity and reduces the need for lat CABG surgery .
Objectives: This study sought to determine the overall procedural success rate of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for CTOs and to examine the relation between variables such as; patients’ characteristics, risk factors, lesion characteristics and procedural success rate.
Methods: In this study ,clinical and coronary angiography data of (80) patients with CTO who underwent PCI

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 29 2020
Journal Name
Frontiers In Physiology
Cystic Fibrosis Transmembrane Conductance Regulator (CFTR) in Human Lung Microvascular Endothelial Cells Controls Oxidative Stress, Reactive Oxygen-Mediated Cell Signaling and Inflammatory Responses
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Publication Date
Sat Sep 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Role Of Quality Management In Enhancing The Efficiency And Effectiveness Of Settling Accounts Tax(Empirical Study You Jordan Income &Sales Tax Department
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This research aims to investigate the role of quality management in enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of settling accounts tax in terms of achieving satisfaction in charge of the hand and the increase of tax revenue on the other hand, by testing the main hypothesis of the study and the sub-hypotheses in the Income and Sales Tax Department in Jordan for the period 2000-20

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 25 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Problem of International Finance and Efficiency of Local Savings in Financing for Development in Algeria: Standard study for the period (1970-2014)
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      The aim of this study is to investigate the nature of the relationship between domestic savings and domestic investment, or rather the efficiency of domestic savings in financing development in Algeria, in order to explain this relationship, identify the challenges to investment, and finance and accelerate economic growth. The economic measurement methodology has estimated the relationship between the savings rate and the local investment rate in the Algerian economy. We have annual data for the period 1970-2014. One of the most important conclusions is that there is no relationship between savings and investment, nor even an integration between them. To illustrate this, the use of some statistical tools, a

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 26 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Geographical Analysis of Health's Field for Families in Al-Adhamiyah and Rusafa Districts in 2016: سمر حسين عكله, و صلاح محسن جاسم
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This research aims to analyze the indicators of spatial variation in the guide of health field in both Al-Adhamiyah and Rusafa districts according to the environmental and administrative units in 2016. The analysis was done by groups of health guide indicators. The objectives of the study were to identify the spatial variation of health services and assess the health situation for families following the environmental and administrative units of the studied area. Such objectives can be done by specifying the extent of the families’ consent to the type of services, measuring the cases of deprivation, and identifying the most deprived areas. The study has finally concluded that there is a clear spatial variation between the indicators and

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 04 2026
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Immunohistochemical evaluation of vascular endothelial growth factor and transforming growth factor-beta on osseointegration of CpTi implant radiated by low level laser therapy
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Background: Dental implants provide a unique treatment modality for the replacement of lost dentition .This is accomplished by the insertion of relatively inert material (a biomaterial) into the soft and hard tissue of the jaws, there by providing support and retention for dental prostheses. Low level laser therapy (LLLT) is an effective tool used to prompt bone repair and modeling post surgery; this has referred to the biostimulation effect of LLLT. The aims of this study were to evaluate the immmunohistochemical expression of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and transforming growth factor -beta (TGF-β) in experimental and control groups with mechanical test. Materials and Methods: Thirty two adult New Zealand white rabbits use

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Publication Date
Sun Aug 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Achieve the internal and external dimensions of corporate social responsibility through the human resources management strategies / case study in the Municipality of Ramadi.
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The main focus of research is on how to achieve the internal and external dimensions of corporate social responsibility through human resources management strategies, which is a major of research aimed. The main problem of this research was confirmed, which confirms that there is an unclear role for social responsibility, lack of human resources management strategies, and ambiguity of roles in the municipality under study. The diagnose of the problem and determining the gap between the internal and external dimensions of social responsibility and human resources management was identified, which attacked the researcher's attention to navigate in this subject, look for the reasons for the gaps and try to reduce them. The case study

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 31 2018
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Peers Pressure And Families Smoking Habit Influence On Smoking Behavior among male Students attending Secondary Schools At second Al- Kurkh education Directorate /Baghdad.
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Background:  There is a strong desire of adolescent to have a peer group and to be appreciated and also to become a member of this group which can affect one each other. There for; encourage, adapting,and imitating of friends and group consider as the main reasons behind starting of smoking among youngsters. Smoking habits in the family were found tobe acause of smoking pressure among adolescentas peer pressure. Smoking habit may be started before 18 years of age in most adult smokers.

Objectives: To study the effect of peer pressure and family smoking habiton the prevalence of smoking among secondary school students.

Type of the study:  A cross

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Pharmacia
Synthesis, docking study, and structureactivity relationship of novel niflumic acid derivatives acting as anticancer agents by inhibiting VEGFR or EGFR tyrosine kinase activities
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