The grey system model GM(1,1) is the model of the prediction of the time series and the basis of the grey theory. This research presents the methods for estimating parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the accumulative method (ACC), the exponential method (EXP), modified exponential method (Mod EXP) and the Particle Swarm Optimization method (PSO). These methods were compared based on the Mean square error (MSE) and the Mean Absolute percentage error (MAPE) as a basis comparator and the simulation method was adopted for the best of the four methods, The best method was obtained and then applied to real data. This data represents the consumption rate of two types of oils a heavy fuel (HFO) and diesel fuel (D.O) and the use of tests to confirm the accuracy of the grey model. After obtaining the results, the best method to estimate the parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the method of the Particle Swarm Optimization method (PSO) It has been used to treatment the missing values in the data and in the prediction where it has been shown to have the best results
Abstract
The extremes effects in parameters readings which are BOD (Biological Oxygen Demands) and DO(Dissolved Oxygen) can caused error estimating of the model’s parameters which used to determine the ratio of de oxygenation and re oxygenation of the dissolved oxygen(DO),then that will caused launch big amounts of the sewage pollution water to the rivers and it’s turn is effect in negative form on the ecosystem life and the different types of the water wealth.
As result of what mention before this research came to employees Streeter-Phleps model parameters estimation which are (Kd,Kr) the de oxygenation and re oxygenation ratios on respect
... Show Moreملخـــص البحــــث
البحث يحدد القيم التي تم التركيز عليها والإهتمام بها في كتاب القراءة الكوردية للصف الثاني في المرحلة الاساسية المقرر, وكذلك القيم التي لم يتم التركيز عليها أو الإهتمام بها و التي تم تجاهلها بصورة كاملة في نفس الكتاب. وتحديد عدد الصفحات التي تم تخصيصها مقارنة مع مساحات الصور التوضيحية والفنون الأدبية في الكتاب المقرر
The current study aims to compare between the assessments of the Rush model’s parameters to the missing and completed data in various ways of processing the missing data. To achieve the aim of the present study, the researcher followed the following steps: preparing Philip Carter test for the spatial capacity which consists of (20) items on a group of (250) sixth scientific stage students in the directorates of Baghdad Education at Al–Rusafa (1st, 2nd and 3rd) for the academic year (2018-2019). Then, the researcher relied on a single-parameter model to analyze the data. The researcher used Bilog-mg3 model to check the hypotheses, data and match them with the model. In addition
... Show Moreمن أجل الإجابة على التساؤل المتعلق بمشكلة البحث وهو؛ ماهي الصعوبات التي تواجه المدرسين باستخدام أساليب التدريس الحديثة بدرس التربية الرياضية للمرحلة المتوسطة؟ والعمل على إيجاد الحلول المناسبة لهذه الصعوبات. استخدم الباحثين المنهج الوصفي بالأسلوب المسحي على عينة من مدرسي ومدرسات التربية الرياضية في محافظة ديالى في المدارس المتوسطة والبالغ عددهم (81) مدرساً ومدرسة، وبعد إعداد الاستبانة الخاصة بالبحث وتوزيع
... Show MoreThe prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traff
... Show MoreEvaluation is one of the most important elements of teaching process. The recent trends in evaluation and educational reform movements have called for using alternative evaluation, which focuses on performance evaluation. Authentic assessment is usually described as formative, in which students participate in their acquisition, in addition to the fact that students are productive and active, which is reflected in the students' achievement and skill level. The study aims to reveal the degree of knowledge and use of alternative assessment tools by primary school teachers in Gaza -Palestine. To meet the objective of the study, the researchers used the descriptive-analytical method and the questioner as a study tool. The study sample c
... Show Moreاللغة هي الأداة الرئيسة للتواصل اللغوي بين أفراد المجتمع . أن المتحدث بأية لغة يحتاج إلى استخدام رموز مشتركة. ومع ذلك، تسهم الظروف الاجتماعية والجغرافية والفردية المختلفة في ذلك, اذ أن هنالك طرقاً مختلفة لاستخدام اللغة نفسها, لذلك فأنها ضرورية للحفاظ على انماط معينة لجعل التواصل ممكنا. وهذا الاستخدام المختلف يؤدي الى تنوع استخدام اللغة. هذا يعني ان المتحدثين في مكان ما لا يتكل
... Show Moreمفهوم معامل الارتباط كمقياس يربط بين متغيرين هذا يجلب انتباهنا إلى موضوع الإحصاء في كل المستويات. أكثر من ذلك هناك ثلاث نقاط خاصة هي اعتيادياً نشدد عليها كما يأتي:-
(1 معامل الارتباط هو الدليل المعياري والذي قيمته لا تعتمد على قياسات
المتغيرات الأصلية.
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... Show MoreIn this paper the method of singular value decomposition is used to estimate the ridge parameter of ridge regression estimator which is an alternative to ordinary least squares estimator when the general linear regression model suffer from near multicollinearity.