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A modified time series model using conditional and unconditional estimations with applications to a real dataset
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Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 15 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Investigating the impact of non-nutritive sweeteners on the antifungal potential of alcoholic and aqueous Eucalyptus extracts against salivary candida albicans (An in-vitro study)
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Background: Eucalyptus extracts and derivatives are natural substances with potent antimicrobial properties. This study investigated the in- vitro effects of non-nutritive sweeteners on the antifungal activity of alcoholic and aqueous Eucalyptus extracts against Candida albicans, a common oral pathogen. Materials and Method: Ten isolates of Candida albicans were isolated from dental students’ salivary samples. The alcoholic and aqueous extracts were prepared from fresh Eucalyptus leaves using maceration. The sensitivity of Candida albicans isolates to various concentrations of Eucalyptus extracts ranging from 50 to 250 (mg/mL) was evaluated via agar well diffusion method, while the agar streaking method  was used to assess the minimum

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 01 2024
Journal Name
Indonesian Journal Of Chemistry
Synthesis, Structure and Biological Activity Studies of New Metal Ion Complexes Based on 3-[(3-Hydroxynaphthalene-2-yl-ethylidene)-hydrazono]-1,3-dihydro-indol-2-one
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In the present study, a novel ligand (L) made of 2-hydroxynaphthaldehyde and 3-hydrazone-1,3-dihydro-indole-2-one(3-[(3-hydroxynaphthalen-2-yl-ethylidene)-hydrazono]-1,3-dihydro-indol-2-one). The ligand was characterized by FTIR, UV-vis, mass, 1H-NMR, 13C-NMR, and CHN elemental analysis. New complexes of this ligand were created by treating methanol and a drop of DMF solution of the produced ligand with the hydrated metal salts of Mn(II), Co(II), Ni(II), Cu(II), and Zn(II) in a molar ratio of 2:1 (L:M). As a result, complexes have been emerged and identified FTIR, UV-vis, C.H.N., chloride-containing, molar conductance, magnetic susceptibility, and atomic absorption. The characterization result for each complex indicated complexes wi

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Publication Date
Sun May 02 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The role of the auditor in allocating common costs in the gas industry and its reflection on the company's performance: Applied Research in North Gas Company
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The auditor has a role in allocating joint costs in the gas industry, and the auditor's procedures are considered as systematic critical examination, analysis and evaluation of everything related to costs in general and joint costs in the gas industry in particular, with the aim of controlling the joint costs of gas industry products, and knowing the share of the cost of each product from the total industry costs Gas products reflect the reality of the company's performance by discovering weaknesses, defects and any errors, to ensure increased effectiveness and efficiency of the parties concerned with auditing them and imposing control and control over the company's resources, as well as

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 08 2025
Journal Name
Retos
The effect of mental training for sensory perceptions of skill performance in some indicators of electrical activity and the special physical abilities of young pole vaulters
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Objective: The aim of the research is to prepare skilled mental exercises according to spatial and temporal perceptions and the awareness of the strength of young pole-vaulters, and to recognize the impact of these exercises on improving the indicators of electrical activity of working muscles and some special physical abilities and accomplishing this effectiveness Research methodology: The researcher used the experimental curriculum (one experimental group), and included the sample of research on (5) two joint jumpers in the Iraqi club championship, all from the center of talent in athletics, the sample is trained on the same curriculum prepared by the coach himself but accompanied by a mental training approach that Prepared by the

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 23 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Risk of non-compliance and its impact on the profitability of Islamic banks: (Applied res earch in the Islamic Cooperation Bank)For the years (2016-2012)
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This research deals with the risks of non-compliance and its impact on the profitability of Islamic banks. Research variables were measured and analyzed as the risk of non-compliance as an independent variableand profitability as a dependent variable. The profitability was measured by three indicators ((rate of return on assets, rate of return on equity and rate of return on Total deposits)) The results of the research showed a significant relationship between the risk of non-compliance and the rate of return on assets and rate of return on total deposits, while there was no relationship between the risk of non-compliance and rate of return on ownership. The research recommended that the senior management of the Islamic Investment Bank s

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 30 2004
Journal Name
Journal Of Physical Education
Comparison of the results of some tests of passing and dribbling of the basketball of tow different years between teams of chosen young players in Baghdad
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This study is concerned with the comparison of the results of some tests of passing and dribbling of the basketball of tow different years between teams of chosen young players in Baghdad. Calculative methods were used namely (Arithmetic mean, Value digression and T.test for incompatible specimens). After careful calculative treatments, it has been that there were abstract or no abstract differences in the find results of chestpass, highdribble and cross-over dribble. The clubs were: (Al-Khark, Air defence, Police and Al-Adamiyah) each one separate from the other for the year (2000-2001). After all that many findings were reached such as the lack of objective valuation (periodical tests) between one sport season and the other. In the light

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 26 2022
Journal Name
Bmc Public Health
Investigating the current environmental situation in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region during the third wave of COVID-19 pandemic: urban vs. rural context
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Abstract<sec> <title>Background

Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic led to a massive global socio-economic tragedy that has impacted the ecosystem. This paper aims to contextualize urban and rural environmental situations during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region.

Results

An online survey was conducted, 6770 participants were included in the final analysis, and 64% were females. The majority of the participants were urban citizens (74%). Over 50% of the urban residents significantly (p

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 15 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Assessing the Brief Book of the Modern and Contemporary History of Asia from the Perspective of the Students in the Department of History - University of Baghdad
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The current research aims to assess the Brief Book of the Modern and Contemporary History of Asia from the perspective of the students in the Department of History, University of Baghdad. The study is carried out in Iraq and the research group has included students of the Department of History in the College of Education--Ibn Rushd and the College of Education for Women- University of Baghdad. The chosen sample of the assigned research consisted of (72) students from third stage in the Department of History, which equals (0.38%) of the total group members amounted (188) female and male students representing (40) students from the College of Education--Ibn Rushd, and 32 students from

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Publication Date
Sun May 08 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The effect of the relationship between the internal auditor and the external auditor on the Earnings quality in Iraqi companies listed in the Iraqi Stock Exchange
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The changes that have occurred in the business environment and scientific and technological progress, as well as the complexity of administrative problems resulting from its practice of various activities, have led to an increase in the responsibilities entrusted to it, and for the purpose of achieving its strategic objectives, which has made the pillars of corporate governance an inevitable matter required by the nature of modern scientific management of the governorate, the success that companies seek is based on the fertile environment and the dialectical relationship between the individual and the company, and to achieve this success there must be a compatible and harmonious audit environment between the internal and external

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Degree of Management Practice of Roaming and Its Role in Achieving Organizational Justice ((An analytical Study of the Opinions of Directors in Anbar Education Directorate))
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Abstract

This Study aimed to investigate the reality of the application of the degree of management practice by Walking Around, namely (discovery of facts, improvement of communication, motivation, development, creativity and feedback) and Its role in achieving organizational justice (procedural justice, distributive justice, Interactional Justice),The availability of the core principles of this system from the point of view of the senior management personnel in the Directorate of Anbar Education, and the importance of research in the philosophical rooting of the nature of the variables as a modern administrative terminology, the research dealt with a problem expressed by a number of intellectual and appl

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