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A modified time series model using conditional and unconditional estimations with applications to a real dataset
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Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
Le thème de la solitude et la structure narrative dans Le Procès-verbal de Jean Marie Gustave Le Clézio The Theme of Solitude and Narrative Structure in the Novel of “Trail ” of Jean Marie Gustave Le Clézio
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Abstract

     This paper tackles the theme of alienation as being a concurrent state of human being from birth to death; so extensive is the description of this state by writers. Alienation has been a product of their hard experiences and miserable lives. One such writer is Jean-Marie Gustave le Clézio who was so perfect in describing alienation in his works. Upon so many occasions, he imagined one or more of his characters as living in a chaotic world and so lived safely in alienation. The novel "Le Procès-Verbal" is one of the most important of his works. This paper deals with e the narrative structure of novel while shedding light on the hero's alienation: its essence and causes.

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Publication Date
Fri May 29 2026
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Frameworks for international press coverage of external interference in the formation of the Iraqi government Analytical study for the Saudi Al-Sharq Al-Awsat and Kayhan Al-Arabi-Iranian newspapers for the period (1/1/2018 - 31/12/2018)
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This research deals with the frameworks and mechanisms of international press coverage of the issue of foreign interference in the formation of the Iraqi government in the Saudi newspapers Asharq Al-Awsat and Kayhan Al-Arabi Iran and how this topic was addressed in the two newspapers. The frameworks for international press coverage of external interference in the formation of the Iraqi government. ”This research is one of the descriptive research that adopted the survey method، which made it possible to use the content analysis tool to analyze
the content of the two newspapers، whose numbers are (624) from the
newspapers (Al-Sharq Al-Awsat Al-Saudi Arabia and Kayhan Al-Arabi Iran) from (1/1/2018 to 31/12/2018)، and the researc

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 19 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Metastable And Nanocrystalline Materials
The Structural, Magnetic, and Electrochemical Properties of Composite PAni/Co<sub>0.2</sub>Mn<sub>0.8</sub>Fe<sub>2</sub>O<sub>4</sub>
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The current work concerns preparing cobalt manganese ferrite (Co0.2Mn0.8Fe2O4) and decorating it with polyaniline (PAni) for supercapacitor applications. The X-ray diffraction findings (XRD) manifested a broad peak of PAni and a cubic structure of cobalt manganese ferrite with crystal sizes between 21 nm. The pictures were taken with a field emission scanning electron microscope (FE-SEM), which evidenced that the PAni has nanofibers (NFs) structures, grain size 33 – 55 nm, according to the method of preparation, where the hydrothermal method was used. The magnetic measurements (VSM) that were conducted at room temperature showed that the samples had definite magnetic properties. Additionally, it was noted that the saturation magnetizatio

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 02 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
The Role of Certain Figures of Emphasis in the Televised Debate between Macron and Le Pen on may 3, 2017».: Le rôle de certaines figures d’insistance utilisées dans le débat télévisé entre Macron et Le Pen le 3 mai 2017
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      Political Discourse Analysis is an important linguistic study approach used by politicians to gain people support. The present paper sheds light on the figures of speech  of emphasis in the televised debate between the two presidential elections candidates, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen and the distinctive effect they add to the political discourse to win general public support as well as the presidential elections.

       The present paper provides a rudimentary definition and an analysis of the terms “discourse” and “political discourse” and traces the significant role played by politically directed televised Media and internet to support political pa

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Publication Date
Tue May 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
Partial substitution of Zn Effects on the Structural and Electrical Properties of High Temperature Hg<sub>0.95</sub>Ag<sub>0.05</sub>Ba<sub>2</sub>Ca<sub>2</sub>Cu<sub>3</sub>O<sub>8+δ</sub> Superconductors
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Publication Date
Mon Sep 20 2021
Journal Name
Key Engineering Materials
Fabrication of Ge&lt;sub&gt;30&lt;/sub&gt;Te &lt;sub&gt;70-x&lt;/sub&gt;Sb&lt;sub&gt;x&lt;/sub&gt; Glasses Alloys and Studying the Effect of Partial Substitution on D.C Electrical Energy Parameters
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The non-linear components has been emphasized for its multiple applications in rewritable recording and data storage devices. Chalcogenide glasses materials are promising due to their high refractive index. In this paper, alloys for Ge30Te70-xSbxglasses semiconductor (where x =0.0, 5, 10, 15 and 20) will be fabricated by melt quenching method. The effect of partial substitution on DC electric power parameters, and its knowledge of electrical conduction mechanisms, were investigated to determine the effect of Antimony on the density of extended states, local states, and in Fermi energy states. The electrical measurements revealed the existence of three conduction mechanis

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Publication Date
Sat May 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
The substitutions of Strontium by yttrium and their effects on Bi<sub>2</sub>Sr<sub>2</sub>-<sub>x</sub>Y<sub>x</sub>Ca<sub>2</sub>Cu<sub>3</sub>O<sub>10</sub>+<sub>δ</sub> superconducting compound
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Abstract<p>Superconducting compound Bi<sub>2</sub>Sr2-<sub>x</sub>Y<sub>x</sub>Ca<sub>2</sub>Cu<sub>3</sub>O<sub>10+δ</sub> were Synthesized by method of solid state reaction, at 1033 K for 160 hours temperature of the sintering at normal atmospheric pressure where substitutions Yttrium oxide with Strontium. When Y2O3 concentration (0.0, 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4 and 0.5). All specimens of Bi<sub>2</sub>Sr<sub>2</sub>Ca<sub>2</sub>Cu<sub>3</sub>O<sub>10+δ</sub> superconducting compounds were examined. The resistivity of electrical was checked by the four point probe technique, It was found th</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Mon Jul 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
Effect of Nickel Substitution On Structural and Electrical Properties of Hg<sub>0.5</sub>Pb<sub>0.5</sub>Ba<sub>2</sub>Ca<sub>2</sub>Cu<sub>3-y</sub>Ni<sub>y</sub>O<sub>8+δ</sub> Superconductor Composite
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Abstract<p>six specimens of the Hg<sub>0.5</sub>Pb<sub>0.5</sub>Ba<sub>2</sub>Ca<sub>2</sub>Cu<sub>3-y</sub> <italic>Ni<sub>y</sub> </italic>O<sub>8+δ</sub> (y=0.2,0.4,0.6,0.8,1.0) superconducting compound were prepared by solid state reaction method, with sintering temperature equal to 1123K for 24 hours. The electrical resistivity was examined by the four probe technique, It was found that all the specimens have metallic behavior and increasing the critical temperature with increasing nickel concentration. The optimum critical temperature T<sub>c</sub> was found equal </p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Fri Feb 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
Manufacturing and studying the effect of partial substitution on the properties of the compound Bi<sub>2-x</sub> Ag<sub>x</sub>Sr<sub>1.9</sub>Ba<sub>0.1</sub>Ca<sub>2</sub>Cu<sub>3</sub>O<sub>10+δ</sub> superconductors.
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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2012
Journal Name
Evidence-based Complementary And Alternative Medicine
Gelam Honey Inhibits the Production of Proinflammatory, Mediators NO,<mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M1"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mrow><mml:mtext>PGE</mml:mtext></mml:mrow><mml:mtext>2</mml:mtext></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math>, TNF-<b><i>α</i></b>, and IL-6 in Carrageenan-Induced Acute Paw Edema in Rats
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Natural honey is well known for its therapeutic value and has been used in traditional medicine of different cultures throughout the world. The aim of this study was to investigate the anti-inflammatory effect of Malaysian Gelam honey in inflammation-induced rats. Paw edema was induced by a subplantar injection of 1% carrageenan into the rat right hind paw. Rats were treated with the nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) Indomethacin (10 mg/kg, p.o.) or Gelam honey at different doses (1 or 2 g/kg, p.o.). The increase in footpad thickness was considered to be edema, which was measured using a dial caliper. Plasma and paw tissue were collected to analyze the production of inflammatory mediators, such as NO, PGE2

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