Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.
The qualitative concept of training experienced athletes is not limited to strength training alone, but extends to general physical conditioning and, ultimately, to special strength training during the specific phases of athletic preparation, depending on the type of sport practiced. Since athletic training should not follow a single, monotonous pattern, the researchers adopted modern Boot camp exercises to develop special strength and biomechanical variables for female triple jump athletes. The study aimed to design Boot camp exercises specifically to enhance special strength and certain biomechanical indicators in young female triple jump athletes, and to identify the impact of these exercises on their performance. The researchers
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This research emerged due to the needs of Iraqi social sector for diagnosing the problems ,finding the appropriate solutions,and exploiting the social opportunities to solve these problems .The research problem focused on raising the following question: "Were Iraqi Managers in the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs able to use their qualifications as social entrepreneurs in the ministry to improve the quality of life of the disadvantaged groups?", In light of that, the importance and objectives of the study were determined, and this research derives its importance from trying to address social problems by measuring the degree of meeting the subjective and objective needs of the custo
The research aims to explain the role of huge data analyzes in measuring quality costs in the Iraqi company for the production of seed, and the research problem was diagnosed with the weakness of the approved method to measure quality costs, and the weak traditional systems of data analyzes, the researcher in the theoretical aspect relied on collecting sources and previous studies, as well as Adoption of the applied analytical approach in the practical aspect, as a set of financial analyzes were applied within the measurement of quality costs and a statement of the role of data analyzes in the practical side, the research concluded to a set of conc
... Show MoreObjectives: To assess levels of premenstrual psychological disorders of the students in Bab Al-Mua’dham Complex and to find out the relationship between the levels of premenstrual psychological and physical disorders and some demographic characteristics of the students. Methodology: A descriptive study was accomplished throughout the period from the 1st of October, 2015 to the 8th of July, 2016 to assess the psychological and physical problems. A purposive sample of 313 students distributed among different colleges of Bab Al-Mua’dam complex distributed as following: 82 students are from college of Arts; 79
Although a great deal of works has been done on the area of capital structure and dividend policy, there is still insufficient knowledge of how these policies affect stock prices. This shortcoming may have been originated from the separation between both policies when investigating their effect on stock prices. Based on this point, this research adopts a new technique (completely randomized design), to combine the effect of capital structure and dividend policy on stock prices rather than separating between them. The study used panel based regression analysis depending on the sample of 30 service and industrial Jordanian firms for the period of 2001-2010. The result of test hypotheses found the following; 1) dividend payout has a
... Show MoreObjective(s): to assess the effectiveness of educational program on improving diabetic foot self-efficacy concerning managing their feet. Methodology: A descriptive analytic (quasi – experimental) design study was carried out at Diabetic and Endocrinology Center in Baghdad- Rusafa Sector from 2nd of May 2017, to27th June 2018. Non-probability sample of (80) male and female diabetic patients were selected. The study instruments consisted of two major parts: first
The current study aims to show the importance of plant products as mosquitocides against Culex quinquefasciatus. Castor oil Nanoemulsions were subedit in various ratios including castor oil, ethanol, tween 80, and deionized water by using ultrasonication. Thermodynamic, centrifugation, PH, assay which improved that the formula of 10 ml of castor oil, ethanol 5ml, tween 80 (14 ml) and deionized water 71ml was more stable than other formulas. The stable formula of castor oil nanoemulsion was characterized by transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and dynamic light scattering (DLS). Nanoemulsion droplets were spherical in shape and were found to have a Z-average diameter of 87.4nm. A concentration of ca
... Show MoreFocusing of Gaussian laser beam through nonlinear media can induce spatial self- phase modulation which forms a far field intensity pattern of concentric rings. The nonlinear refractive index change of material depends on the number of pattern rings. In this paper, a formation of tunable nonlinear refractive index change of hybrid functionalized carbon nanotubes/silver nanoparticles acetone suspensions (F-MWCNTs/Ag-NPs) at weight mixing ratio of 1:3 and volume fraction of 6x10-6 , 9x10-6 , and 18x10-6 using laser beam at wavelength of 473nm was investigated experimentally. The results showed that tunable nonlinear refractive indices were obtained and increasing of incident laser power density led to increase the nonlinear refractive inde
... Show MoreAim of the study: Is to evaluate the effect of myrrh oil local application on the healing process of skin wounds histologically , histomorphometrically and , histochemically. Materials and methods:Twenty male white New Zealand rabbits were used in this study. An incisional wounds with full thickness depth and of 2 cm length were done on both sides of the cheek skin of each rabbit. The left sided incisions (the control group) were irrigated with distilled water (10µL). The right sided incisions (the experimental groups) were treated with myrrh oil (10µL). Each group was subdivided into 4 subgroups according to the healing interval into 1,3,7 and 14 days(5 rabbits for each group). Results: Histological findings of our current study s
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