Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.
Five subsurface sections covering the entire length of the Jeribe Limestone Formation (Early Middle Miocene) were studied from four oilfields in northern Iraq. It is hoped to unravel this formation microfacies ; depositional environment; diagenetic attributes and their parental processes; and the relationship between these processes and the observed porosity patterns. The microfacies were found to include mudstone, wackestone, packstone, and grainstone, which have been deposited respectively in open platform, restricted platform, and edge platform which represent the lagoonal environment, while the deposits of the lower parts of the Jeribe formation especially in well Hamrin- 2 reflect a deeper fore slope environment. By using the lithofac
... Show MoreKE Sharquie, SA Al-Mashhadani, A A Noaimi, RK Al-Hayani, SA Shubber, Iraqi Journal of Community Medicine, 2017 - Cited by 1
Three-dimensional nonlinear thermal numerical simulations are conducted for the friction stir welding (FSW) of AA 7020-T53. Three welding cases with tool (rotational and travel) speeds of 900rpm-40mm/min, 1400rpm-16mm/min and 1400rpm-40mm/in are analyzed. The objective is to study the variation of transient temperature in a friction stir welded plate of 5mm workpiece thickness. Based on the experimental records of transient temperature at several specific locations during the friction stir welding process for the AA 7020-T53, thermal numerical simulation is developed. The numerical results show that the temperature field in the FSW process is symmetrically distributed with respect to the welding line, increasing travel speed decreasing tran
... Show More"The aim of the research is to identify the availability of the dimensions of the research variables represented by organizational symmetry and the quality of work-life at the University of Information and Communications Technology, which is one of the formations of the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research in Baghdad, in addition to knowing the relationship and influence between them. The research relied on the descriptive analytical approach based on peer description. The research was analyzed and the research sample consisted of (148) individuals, the sample was chosen using the comprehensive inventory method, data was obtained by relying on the questionnaire which was prepared from ready-made m
... Show MoreBackground: Rehabilitation of the carious tooth to establish tooth structure integrity required cavity design that show a benign stress distribution. The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of the cavity position on the stress values in the reamining tooth structure restored with amalgam or resin composite. Materials and methods: Seven 2-D models of maxillary first premolar include class I cavity design was prepared, one sound tooth (A) 3 composite (B1, B2, and B3) and 3 amalgam (C1, C2, and C3). In design (BI and C1) the cavity position is in the mid distance between bacc-lingual cusp tip, design (B2 and C2) and (B3 and C3) shifted toward the buccal cusp and the lingual cusp for 0.5 mm respectively. One hundred N vertical
... Show MoreLithium-rich layered oxide cathodes have attracted considerable attention due to their high energy density, but have suffered from voltage drop, structural instability, and limited electrical conductivity. In this study, the electrochemical performance of the lithium-rich cathode material Li[Li0.20Mn0.54Ni0.13Co0.13]O2 was evaluated after modification by zinc doping and composition with graphene oxide or graphene. The zinc-doped powders were synthesized by the sol-gel method, while the graphene-based composites were prepared by the hydrothermal route. The structural, morphological and electrochemical characteristics of the modified materials were examined using X-ray diffraction, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, field emission scann
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He research specifies subjects which may contribute in improve productivity of the General Company for vegetable oil product/ Al-Farab factory and aims to release the relationship between system Quick Response Manufacturing (QRM) and scheduling operations.
The Implementation was in the general company for vegetable oil product (Al-Farab factory), Universe Factory It suffers from a failure to follow Scheduling in its operations And not taking into account the lead times And delays in product delivery dates, Here are drawing the attention of the administration in the factory to use Quick Response Manufacturing (QRM) to control the energy and inventory, machin
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This research aims to study the impact of strategic information systems on the development of intellectual capital in the Public Shareholding Electricity Distribution Company in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. To achieve the objectives of the study, a questionnaire was developed for the purpose of data collection, as the number of valid questionnaires for analysis was about (135), and SPSS and AMOS 0.26 software was used to analyze the collected data. The study found out that the respondents' perceptions of the level of importance of strategic information systems and the level of importance of intellectual capital were high, and that the relational capital has ranked as first, followed by structural capital, and h
... Show MoreTo determine the potential of gingival crevicular fluid (GCF) volume, E‐cadherin and total antioxidant capacity (TAC) levels to predict the outcomes of nonsurgical periodontal therapy (NSPT) for periodontitis patients.
NSPT is the gold‐standard treatment for periodontal pockets < 6 mm in depth, however, successful outcomes are not always guaranteed due to several factors. Periodontitis‐associated tissue destruction is evidenced by the increased level of soluble E‐cadherin and reduced antioxidants in oral fluids which could be used as predictors for success/failure of N
In this work, we synthesized thirteen compounds of 1-(2-furoyl)thiourea derivatives 1-13 by conversion of 2-furoyl chloride to 2-furoyl isothiocyanate by reacting it with potassium thiocyanate in dry acetone in a quite short reflux time then, in the same pot, different of (primary and secondary amines) were added individually to achieve thiourea derivatives. The products were characterized spectroscopically using (FT-IR, 1H NMR and 13C NMR) techniques. Some of them were evaluated as antioxidant agents using DPPH radical scavenging method, and all were examined theoretically as enzyme inhibitors against Bacillus pasteurii urease (pdb id: 4ubp) and by studying molecular docking using Autodock (4.2.6) software.