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A modified time series model using conditional and unconditional estimations with applications to a real dataset
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Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 27 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Prevalence of Smoking among Health Workers and Effectiveness of Instructional Booklet concerning Risks of Smoking on Health Workers′ Knowledge in Baghdad Teaching Hospital
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Objective(s): The present study aims at assessing the prevalence of smoking among health workers in Baghdad Teaching Hospital and to find out the effectiveness of instructional booklet concerning risk of smoking on health workers′ knowledge in hospital.

Methodology: A pre-experimental design study was conducted from 1st of October 2019 to 17th of March 2020. A non-probability sample consists of (500) participant (343 non-smokers and 157 smokers) from (1500) health workers in Baghdad Teaching Hospital, they included the physicians, nurses, pharmacists, physiotherapists, Laboratory Technicians, Medical Assistants. A questionnaire is constructed to evaluate the effectiveness of instructional booklet on health workers’ knowledge

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Publication Date
Sat Mar 30 2024
Journal Name
Civil Engineering And Architecture
Assessing Environmental Sustainability and Design Integration in the Context of District 838, Al-Dawra, Baghdad, Iraq - An Analysis of Urban Multifunctional Land Uses
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This research explores the intricate relationship between environmental sustainability and urban design in Al-Jumhuriya Neighborhood, Baghdad, reflecting urban development challenges and opportunities. It highlights the need to balance growth, functionality, and quality of life with environmental responsibility in urban areas worldwide. The research includes a literature review on environmental sustainability in urban design and the utilization of multifunctional land in contemporary cities. The research employs a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative and qualitative data collection methods. Survey results show a diverse range of perspectives, indicating concerns about air quality and local regulations but also positive views on co

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 01 2021
Journal Name
Biochemical And Cellular Archives
Evaluation the Effect of Allium Sativum (garlic) oil on The Expression of Maz E and Maz F Genes in Escherichia Coli Clinical Isolates
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Scopus (4)
Scopus
Publication Date
Thu Nov 01 2012
Journal Name
Iraqi Postgraduate Medical Journal
Lactic Acid 5% Mouthwash is an Effective Therapeutic and Prophylactic Agent in Treatment of Recurrent Aphthous Ulcer (Single blind placebo controlled therapeutic study)
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KE Sharquie, SA Al Mashhadani, AA Noaimi, RK Al-Hayani, SA Shubber, Iraqi Postgraduate Medical Journal, 2012 - Cited by 1

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 03 2012
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Study the effect of polyphenols extracted from Iraqi grape seeds on glucose , MDA levels and GST activity in streptozotocin (STZ ) induced diabetic mice.
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1-Objective:- Polyphenols are biochemical compounds with antioxidant activity against differences diseases related to Lipid peroxidation such as diabetes mellitus. Polyphenols distributed widely in medical plants, the aim of the study is to extract and analyze some polyphenolic compounds from grape seeds and examine their effects on (STZ) induced diabetic mice. 2-Methods:- In the present study , a group of polyphenols has been extracted from Iraq

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Crossref
Publication Date
Thu Mar 01 2018
Journal Name
International Journal Of Science And Nature
EXPERIMENTAL AND THEORETICAL STUDY OF 3-BENZYL -2- MERCAPTOQUINOIZOLINE-4(3H)-ONE (BMQ) AS AN INHIBITOR OF CARBON STEEL CORROSION IN ACIDIC MEDIA
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The inhibition of 3-Benzyl -2-mercaptoquinoizoline -4 (3H)-one (BMQ) on the corrosion of carbon steel in 0.5 M HCl studied by potentionstat polarization methods at 303–333 K. Results obtained show that BMQ act as inhibitor for carbon steel in HCl solution. The inhibition efficiency increase with increase in BMQ concentration. Activation parameters and Gibbs free energy for the adsorption process using Statistical Physics calculated and discussed. Quantum chemical calculations using DFT at the B3LYP/6-31G level of theory were used to calculate some electronic properties of the molecule to verify any correlation between the inhibitive effect and molecular structure of BMQ. The quantum calculations were proceeded to get data around correlati

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2014
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Study of the Inter-Particle Expectation Values for Inter and Outer Shell: Khalil H. Al-Bayati|Ban H. Al-Asaad|Baidaa S. H.
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In this research the Inter-Particle Expectation Values have been studied for atomics Helium (He) and Beryllium (Be) also for He-like ions, Be-like ions (Li-1, B+1? Li+1, Be+2, B+3) by using Hartree-Fock wave functions, We compared the results to some ions which have the same atomic number from each group with atomic number, We compared the results with published calculations to the last studied .

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 06 2015
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The Effect of The Electrochemical Deposition Potential Variation on The Coating of Hydroxyatite on Commertialy pure Titanium (CpTi) and Ti-6Al-4V Alloy
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In this research we investigated the corrosion behavior of the commertialy pure titanium and Ti-6Al-4V alloy that coated with hydroxyapatite by electrochemical deposition with applied voltage (6,9,12) Volt from aqueous solution containing Ca(NO3)2.H2O =7.0 gm/l , (NH4)2HPO4 =3.5 gm/l , Na(NO3)2 = 8.5 gm/l in order to improve the bonding strength of hydroxyapetite and medical metals and alloys and increasing the biocompatibility. The coating layer morphology was investigated by XRD, Optical microscope , and SEM tests, the corrosio tests was made by use senthesys simulated body fluid (SBF) , and we found that the propreate voltage for coatint on Ti was 9 Volt and for Ti-6Al-4Vwas12Volt.

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Crossref
Publication Date
Tue Aug 11 2020
Journal Name
International Journal Of Psychosocial Rehabilitation
The effect of the maximum physical effort on some physiological variables, body components and achievement level in the effectiveness of air rifle shooting
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The job that confronts players with the effectiveness of shooting with an air rifle is high, so it requires necessary functional adaptations that differ in their degrees from other sports. Regular training in air rifle shooting leads to physiological changes in most of the body's internal systems, and changes and responses can be identified. The functional accompanying physical activity through the presence of body components that reflect these physiological changes in the form of changes in some components, and the importance of research lies in studying the physiological changes accompanying the maximum physical effort and the consequent development of the level of achievement in the effectiveness of shooting with air rifle and body

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 01 2025
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Materials
IJM013 Effects of Partial Oxygen Content on Crystalline Structure and Surface Topography of Nanostructured Al2O3 Thin Films Prepared by DC Reactive Sputtering Technique
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Aluminum oxide thin films were prepared by dc reactive sputtering technique using different mixing ratios of argon and oxygen gases (90:10, 70:30, 50:50, 30:70, and 10:90). These films were characterized to introduce their crystalline structures, surface morphology, and elemental composition. A progressive transition occurs from a predominantly amorphous to a highly crystalline Al2O3 film as the oxygen content in the Ar:O2 gas mixture is increased. Increasing the oxygen content leads to a progressive decrease in surface roughness, resulting in smoother and more uniform films with finer granular features. The oxygen-rich environments yield the smoothest surfaces, while argon-rich environments result in significantly rougher surfaces. These f

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