Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.
New series of 4, 4'-((2-(Aryl)-1H-benzo [d] imidazole-1, 3 (2H)-diyl) bis (methylene)) Diphenol (3a-g) was successfully synthesized from cyclization of the reduction product of bis Schiff bases (2) with aryl aldehydes bearing phenolic hydroxyl in the presence of acetic acid. The structure of these compounds was identified from FT-IR, 1H NMR, 13C NMR and EIMs. The Antioxidant capability was screened by DPPH and FRAP assays. Both assays showed antioxidant capability more than BHT as well. Compounds 3b and 3c showed antioxidant capacity slightly less than ascorbic acid. The docking study for theses compound was carried out as III DNA polymerase inhibitor. The results of docking demonstrated that the increase in hinderances around phenolic hydr
... Show MoreThis experiment was conducted in the orchard of the Department of Horticulture,college of Agriculture,Baghdad University during the growing season of 2007 To study the effects of spray with three concentration of cultar(0,500,1000 mg.L-1) ,tow concentration of K2SO4(0,5g.L-1), and salinity of irrigation water with three concentration (1,2,3dS.m-1) on some characteristics of vegetative growth of two cultivars of apricot trees (Labib1 and Zienni).The age of trees was four years .The tree grafted on original of seed apricot . Afactorial trail was carry out according to randomized complete block design with arrangement of split-split with three replications. Salinity of irrigation water took main plot, potassium took sub plot and cultar took s
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В статье представлены явления полисемии и омонимии в специализированной терминосистеме, а именно в геодезической терминологии; определены предпосылки и причины возникновения полисемии и омонимии в профессиональном языке в области геодезии и кадастра; установлены различия и взаимосвязь между понятиями омонимия и полисемия; выделены главных типы полисемантических тер
... Show MoreBackground: Polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) is the most commonly used material in denture fabrication. The material is far from ideal in fulfilling the mechanical requirement. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of addition of 3% wt of treated (silanized) Titanium oxide Nano filler on some physical and mechanical properties of heat cured acrylic denture base material. Materials and methods: 100 specimens were constructed, 50 specimens were prepared from heat cure PMMA without additives (control) and 50 specimens were prepared from heat cure PMMA with the addition of TiO2 Nano fillers. Each group was divided into 5 sub groups according to the test performed which was mixed by probe ultra-sonication machine. Results: A highly
... Show MoreCentric study on the interest of the Directorate General of Training and Development / Ministry of Electricity to consolidate the concept of process and enhancement of knowledge in the areas of organizational change، it reached a sample of the study (44) people who are highly heads of departments، technicians and administrators in different sections of the Directorate and by using the correlation coefficient (Spearman) & coefficient of simple regression been tested correlations between variables and the impact of the study، as has been reached to integrate the role of cognitive processes with the areas of organizational change and relationships that were significant at the level of overall dimensions and subsidiary organs.
... Show MoreBackground: Teachers are considered as dynamic force who take a pivotal position in any educational system. Since they may play a significant role in passing the preventive information and health promotion, it is important that their own oral health knowledge, attitude, and practices conform to the professional recommendations. The aim of this study was to evaluate oral health knowledge, attitude and practices among kindergarten teachers, and their impact on teachers’ oral health condition in Al-Rusafa Sector, Baghdad, Iraq. Materials and Methods: This cross-sectional survey was conducted among 80 kindergarten teachers. A self-administered questionnaire was distributed among these teach¬ers. This questionnaire format contains two
... Show MoreIntroduction and Aim: Klebsiella pneumoniae is a Gram-negative bacterium responsible for a wide range of infections, including respiratory tract infections (RTIs). This research was aimed to study the antibacterial and antibiofilm effect of AgNPs produced by Gram positive and negative bacteria on RTIs associated with K. pneumoniae. Materials and Methods: The biofilm formation of K. pneumoniae was determined by tube method qualitatively from select bacterial species characterized by UV-Visible spectroscopy. The antibacterial susceptibility of the bacteria AgNPs was tested for their antibacterial and antibiofilm activity on a clinical isolate of K. pneumoniae. Results: K. pneumoniae isolated from RTIs were strong biofilm producers. The ant
... Show MoreFiber‐reinforced elastic laminated composites are extensively used in several domains owing to their high specific stiffness and strength and low specific density. Several studies were performed to ascertain the factors that affect the composite plates’ dynamic properties. This study aims to derive a mathematical model for the dynamic response of the processed composite material in the form of an annular circular shape made of polyester/E‐glass composite. The mathematical model was developed based on modified classical annular circular plate theory under dynamic loading, and all its formulas were solved using MATLAB 2023. The mathematical model was also verified with real experimental work involving the vibration test of the f
... Show MoreA single-crystalline semi-polar gallium nitride (11-22) was grown on m-plane (10-10) sapphire substrate by metal organic chemical vapor deposition. Three-step approach was introduced to investigate the grain size evolution for semi-polar (11-22) GaN. Such approach was achieved due to the optimized gallium to ammonia ratio and temperature variations, which led to high quality (11-22) oriented gallium nitride epilayers. The full width at half maximum values along (-1-123) and (1-100) planes for the overgrowth temperature of 1080°C were found to be as low as 0.37° and 0.49°, respectively. This was an indication of the enhanced coalescence and reduction in root mean square roughness as seen by atomic force microscopy. Surface analysi
... Show MoreThe purpose of this paper is to identify environmental awareness under the Corona pandemic among students of the Faculty of Physical Education and Sports Sciences at the University of Kufa. and comparison of environmental awareness under the Corona pandemic between students of the Faculty of Physical Education and Sports Sciences at the University of Kufa. The two researchers used the descriptive approach in the style of the survey and comparisons to identify the research community in the students of the College of Physical Education and Sports Sciences at the University of Kufa for the academic year 2020-2021, who numbered (210) students, then a sample of (80) students was chosen randomly, with a percentage of (38.09%) from the research co
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