تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
The emergence of oil fields and subsequent changes in adjacent land use are known to affect settlements and communities. Everywhere the industry emerges, there is little understanding about the impact of oil fields on land use in the surrounding areas. The oil industry in Iraq is one of the most important industries and is almost the main industry in the Iraqi economic sector, and it is very clear that this industry is spread over large areas, and at the same time adjoins with population communities linked to it developmentally.
The rapid development and expansion of oil extraction activities in various regions has led to many challenges related to land-use planning and management. Here, the problem of research arises on th
... Show MoreIn this study, we investigate the behavior of the estimated spectral density function of stationary time series in the case of missing values, which are generated by the second order Autoregressive (AR (2)) model, when the error term for the AR(2) model has many of continuous distributions. The Classical and Lomb periodograms used to study the behavior of the estimated spectral density function by using the simulation.
Helps to use the mechanics of organizational agility in improving product quality by reducing waste or reduce it by removing activities that do not add value, which is the main reason for inefficiency and low productivity and increase costs, so the difficulty of changing administrative decisions to cope with internal and external changes to keep up with market trends renewable are the basic issue that research seeks to be addressed through the adoption of mechanisms of organizational agility, which will be reflected in bottom line in a positive way in improving the quality of products, and thus lies Applied important to look at the light of the results achieved and in which they can know the nature of the relationship between the
... Show MoreThe research started from the basic objective of tracking the reality of organizational excellence in educational organizations on the basis of practical application. The research in its methodology was based on the examination of organizational excellence in the way of evaluating institutional performance. Tikrit University was selected as a case study to study the reality of application to the dimensions of organizational excellence in it, The results of the analysis for ten periods during the year and month. For the accuracy of the test and its averages, it was preferable to use the T test to determine the significance of the results compared to the basic criteria.
The research found that there is an o
... Show MoreThis research aims to shed light on the reality of the process of rehabilitation of human resources for the implementation of electronic management practice in the ministry, and availability requirements of the application of electronic management and diagnosis of the most important stages and steps that can be followed in the process of transition towards electronic management to keep abreast of developments in the field of information technology, has been the application of this research in the Ministry of science and technology on a group of heads of departments and directors of the people in the departments of the Ministry through the use of case study method, which includes cohabitation field intervi
... Show MoreThis research aims to find out the relationship of risk behavior & job satisfaction for workers in the emergency program in the international relief agency (UNRWA) in the Gaza Strip and the level of each of them, and to achieve that we have been conducting research on the strength of "210" sample employees of the emergency program staff in the international relief agency in Gaza governorates, and try to answer the research questions the researcher through the use of measurements of risk behavior and job satisfaction are two of the researcher, The researcher has used several statistical methods to identify the validity and reliability of scales and access to research and interpretations of the results, and these methods: the m
... Show MoreConsidering the magnitude of its economic, social and political impact, unemployment represents a crucial challenge confronting the majority of the countries of the world. The problem of the study was the high rates of unemployment in Sudan and the inability of economic growth rates to keep pace with the steady increases in unemployment rates during the study period. This study aimed to identify the economic and social variables influencing unemployment rate in Sudan, in addition to measuring the impact of these variables over the period (1981-2015). Data were collected from databases of the World Bank and Atlas of the World's data .The study hypothesized the presence of statistically significant and direct relationship between u
... Show MoreImplementing smart community engagement should consider careful planning and collaboration with numerous stakeholders, including the community. The technology and program must be designed to frame its purpose and should link back to specific goals of implementing smart community engagement. Digital services do not guarantee a smart engagement between the community and the local government. This is the case for the Kubang Pasu local government where several online services have been provided in their attempt to implement the smart community concept. However, understanding on the preferences of features and requirements of existing web-based systems and the impact of these systems is lacking. Therefore, a perception study needs to be condu
... Show MoreThis research aims to the possibility of evaluating the strategic performance of the State Board for Antiquities and Heritage (SBAH) using a balanced scorecard of four criteria (Financial, Customers, Internal Processes, and Learning and Growth). The main challenge was that the State Board use traditional evaluation in measuring employee performance, activities, and projects. Case study and field interviews methodology has been adopted in this research with a sample consisting of the Chairman of the State Board, 6 General Managers, and 7 Department Managers who are involved in evaluating the strategic performance and deciding the suitable answers on the checklists to analyze it ac
... Show MoreThe purpose of the research is to present a proposed accounting system model for converting and aggregating accounting information within the framework of the differentiated accounting systems, and the research methodology consists of: The research problem is the existence of differentiated and dispersed accounting systems that operate within governmental economic units and at the same time seek to achieve a unified vision and goals for the organization, and the central research hypothesis is the possibility of conducting the process of conversion accounting information from the government accounting system to the unified accounting system, and then aggregate those systems. The research was conducted at the College of Administrat
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