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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 04 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
الملاكات التخطيطية في العراق
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Publication Date
Tue Jul 11 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
International Studies Concerning Teachers’ Attitudes towards the Inclusion of Students with Special Educational Needs: Review of Literature
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Over the years, the issue of inclusion of students with special educational needs (SEN) in mainstream schools is controversial worldwide. Evidence from research argues that without a positive teachers’ attitude towards the inclusion of students with SEN in mainstream schools, the successful implementation of inclusion is most likely doubtable. The aim of this paper is to understand teachers’ attitudes towards the inclusion of students with SEN in mainstream schools from different perspectives and from different contexts. The conclusion drawn in this review can be that teachers’ attitude is the most important key towards the appropriate inclusion implementation in mainstream schools. The disparity of teachers’ attitudes towards th

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 30 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Aggregation of Accounting information between differentiated accounting systems ( Case Study )
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The purpose of the research is to present a proposed accounting system model for converting and aggregating accounting information within the framework of the differentiated accounting systems, and the research methodology consists of: The research problem is the existence of differentiated and dispersed accounting systems that operate within governmental economic units and at the same time seek to achieve a unified vision and goals for the organization, and the central research hypothesis is the possibility of conducting the process of conversion accounting information from the government accounting system to the unified accounting system, and then aggregate those systems. The research was conducted at the College of Administrat

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 20 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Community Perception on Smart Engagement: Case of Kubang Pasu Local Government
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Implementing smart community engagement should consider careful planning and collaboration with numerous stakeholders, including the community. The technology and program must be designed to frame its purpose and should link back to specific goals of implementing smart community engagement. Digital services do not guarantee a smart engagement between the community and the local government. This is the case for the Kubang Pasu local government where several online services have been provided in their attempt to implement the smart community concept. However, understanding on the preferences of features and requirements of existing web-based systems and the impact of these systems is lacking. Therefore, a perception study needs to be condu

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 31 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Evaluation of the Strategic Performance of the State Board of Antiquities and Heritage/Case Study
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This research aims to the possibility of evaluating the strategic performance of the State Board for Antiquities and Heritage (SBAH) using a balanced scorecard of four criteria (Financial, Customers, Internal Processes, and Learning and Growth). The main challenge was that the State Board use traditional evaluation in measuring employee performance, activities, and projects. Case study and field interviews methodology has been adopted in this research with a sample consisting of the Chairman of the State Board, 6 General Managers, and 7 Department Managers who are involved in evaluating the strategic performance and deciding the suitable answers on the checklists to analyze it ac

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Examining the Asymmetric Impacts of Interest and Exchange Rate on Investment in Egypt for the Period 1976-2020: Applying NARDL Model
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Most of the studies conducted in the past decades focused on the effect of interest rates and exchange rates on domestic investment under the assumption that the independent variables have the same effect on the dependent variable, but there were limited studies that investigated the unequal effects of changes in interest rates and exchange rates, both positive and negative, on domestic investment.  This study used a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model to assess the unequal effects of the real interest rate and real exchange rate variables on domestic investment in Egypt for the period 1976 - 2020.  The results revealed that positive and negative shocks for both exchange rates have unequal effects on

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Crossref
Publication Date
Mon Feb 13 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Challenges Facing Blended Education from the Point Of View of Teachers Teaching Children with Disabilities
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The current research aims to identify: 1) the challenges facing blended education from the point of view of teachers of students with disabilities. 2) The challenges facing blended education from the point of view of teachers of students with disabilities according to the gender variable (males-females). 3) The challenges facing blended education from the point of view of teachers of students with disabilities, according to the academic qualifications of graduates

(institute-bachelors-masters). 4) The challenges facing blended education from the point of view of male and female teachers, according to the functional service period with students with disabilities (less than 8 years - from 9 to 15 years - 16 years and above). 5) the

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
المحددات الاقتصادية والاجتماعية للبطالة في السودان -دراسة قياسية باستخدام انحدار المركبات الرئيسة للمدة (1981-2015م)
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Considering the magnitude of its economic, social and political impact, unemployment represents a crucial challenge confronting the majority of the countries of the world. The problem of the study was the high rates of unemployment in Sudan and the inability of economic growth rates to keep pace with the steady increases in unemployment rates during the study period. This study aimed to identify the economic and social variables influencing unemployment rate in Sudan, in addition to measuring the impact of these variables over the period (1981-2015). Data were collected from databases of the World Bank and Atlas of the World's data .The study hypothesized the presence of statistically significant and direct relationship between u

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 01 2014
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Article International attitudes to change in the Arab countries in the positions of analytical Read (United States, European Union, Russia)
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المواقف افي الدول العربية قراءة تحليلية في مواقف لدولية من التغيير (الولايات المتحدة - الاتحاد الاوروبي - روسيا)

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Crossref
Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Measure the Impact of global financial crisis on some indicators of the Saudi Arabia's economy using the Mendel-Fleming model for period (1997-2015)
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         The main objective of this study is to measure the Impact of global financial crisis on some indicators of the Saudi Arabia's economy using the Mendel-Fleming model, the importance of the study applied by focusing on the theme of general equilibrium in the face of fluctuations in the global economy. Study used a descriptive approach and the methodology of econometrics to construct the model. Study used Eviews Program for data analysis. The Data was collected from the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, for the period (1997-2014).Stationery of the variables was checked by Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) unit roots tests. And also the co-integration

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