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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 19 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
الاحداث الأحداث السياسية التي مرت بها مدينة دمشق للمدة (100-400هـ/718- 1009م)
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Damascus has great importance throughout its history and has increased in the Umayyad period, It was interested the by Caliphs, and became the capital of the Islam, But the late Umayyad era has witness of troubles and political, this led to collapse the Umayyad state and take the Abbasid rule, despite the neglect of the Abbasids for this city and they left to others, but it remains of great concern by some of the Abbasid caliphs.

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 06 2019
Journal Name
المجلة العلمية لعلوم و فنون الرياضية كلية التربية الرياضية للبنات جامعة حلوان
قياس مستوى التعايش السلمي وتحليل المخاطر التي تهدده لدى لاعبات المنتخبات الرياضية الجامعية
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Publication Date
Fri Aug 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Bayesian method to estimate the parameters of Exponential Growth Model with Autocorrelation problem and different values of parameter of correlation-using simulation
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We have studied Bayesian method in this paper by using the modified exponential growth model, where this model is more using to represent the growth phenomena. We focus on three of prior functions (Informative, Natural Conjugate, and the function that depends on previous experiments) to use it in the Bayesian method. Where almost of observations for the growth phenomena are depended on one another, which in turn leads to a correlation between those observations, which calls to treat such this problem, called Autocorrelation, and to verified this has been used Bayesian method.

The goal of this study is to knowledge the effect of Autocorrelation on the estimation by using Bayesian method. F

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
" Forecasting Future Cash Flows Using the Metrics of Cash Flow and the Accounting Return "
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Providing useful information in estimating the amount and timing and the degree of uncertainty concerning the future cash flows is one of the three main objectives of the financial reporting system, which is done through the main financial statements. The interest on standard-setting bodies in the forecasting of future cash flows, especially Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) explain under Accounting Standard (1) of the year 1978 "Objectives of Financial Reporting by Business Enterprises", paragraph (37) thereof that accounting profits better than cash flows when forecasting future cash flows, In contrast, IAS (7) as amended in 1992 aims to compel economic units to prepare statement of c

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 04 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effectiveness of a Proposed Study Unit Based on the Funds of Knowledge Theory in Developing the Attitudes Towards Cultural Identity and the Proposed Study Unit among Students of Basic Education in the Sultanate of Oman
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The present study aims to explore the effectiveness of a proposed study unit based on the funds of knowledge theory in developing the attitudes towards cultural identity and the proposed study unit. In order to achieve the goal of the study, the two researchers followed the quasi-experimental approach, where the study sample consisted of (28) female students of the fifth-grade at Al-Jeelah Basic Education School, Al-Dakhiliyah Governorate in the Sultanate of Oman. The data were collected by two scales: the first is a scale of attitudes towards cultural identity consisting of (26) items. The second was a scale of attitudes towards the proposed study unit, which consisted of (24) items. The results of the study revealed that the effect of

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 19 2015
Journal Name
Al-academy
Transformations in The Process of Mass Communication Using the International Network of Information (Internet): انتصار رسمي موسى
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Summarized the idea of research is marked by "changes in the process of mass communication by using the international network of information" by specifying what data networking and mass communication is the transformation processes in the mass communication network where research aims to:1. Diagnostic data and transformations in the process of mass communication network.2. Provide a contact form commensurate with the characteristic mass of the International Network of electronic information, and research found to provide a communicative model called the (human contact network). In short (HCN) Humanity Communication Net also reached conclusions concerning the search process and communicative transformations and changes that have taken pla

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 04 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
(الاستدامة في الحصول على الخدمات الحضرية (حالة تطبيقية على مدينة النجف الأشرف
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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Effect of strategic Supremacy on strategic success A case study in Thi Qar Governorate
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Purpose To test the effect of strategic Supremacy on strategic success A case study in Thi Qar Governorate, methodology/approach – this is a mandatory entry.

a case study was used and applied to the Department managers of Government of the province of Thi Qar, Research limitations/implications – It is clear that the strategic Supremacy variable is not being used effectively to achieve strategic success.

Practical implications – use strategic supremacy positively to Support for strategic success. implementing and monitoring ignorance of them in how to use thi

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Earned Value Method in Project Control Applied research
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   There is no doubt that the project control function is very important for administration, so the project Management depends on to monitor and control the project. The project control integrated to the planning which is the base of the administration functions; planning, organizing, directing, and controlling. Without project control cannot be insure to fulfill the plan of the project by the budget and specified time. The project management apply many methods of control to achieve the goals of project which are cost, time, and required specifications. Earned Value Management one of control methods that used in the project by international companies.

Earned Value Method is used in the project o

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 01 2010
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
التحليل الاحصائي لتجارب القياسات المكررة للبيانات المصنفة في حالة معالجتين وثلاث معالجات
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من اهداف بعض التجارب هي معرفة تاثير التسلسلات المختلفة لبعض الادوية او التغذية او تجارب التعلم. وفي بعض الاحيان قد تكون الوحدات التجريبية نادرة لهذا نقوم باستخدام الوحدات التجريبية على نحو متكرر. او بسبب الميزانية المحدودة فان صاحب التجربة يخضع كل وحدة تجريبية لاختبارات عديدة ويطلق على هذا النوع من التجارب التي يتم فيها استخدام الوحدات التجريبية (الاشخاص) Subject على نحو متكرر

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