تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
Abstract
Travel Time estimation and reliability measurement is an important issues for improving operation efficiency and safety of traffic roads networks. The aim of this research is the estimation of total travel time and distribution analysis for three selected links in Palestine Arterial Street in Baghdad city. Buffer time index results in worse reliability conditions. Link (2) from Bab Al Mutham intersection to Al-Sakara intersection produced a buffer index of about 36% and 26 % for Link (1) Al-Mawall intersection to Bab Al- Mutham intersection and finally for link (3) which presented a 24% buffer index. These illustrated that the reliability get worst for link
... Show MoreTwenty five samples out of sixty wound swabs taken from burn patients were identified as P. aeruginosabacteria by conventional methods. Antibiotics susceptibility tests were performed against thirteen antibiotics. P. aeruginosa samples were treated with 0.5 mg/ml of Safranin O solution then irradiated with 532nm Q-switched Nd:YAG laser at four energy densities (0.324, 0.704, 1.380, and 1.831 J/cm2) for different times of 5, 8 and 11 minutes with 5Hz repetition rate. The viability, susceptibility to antibiotic and production of pyocyanin were determined before and after irradiation. The results showed that the number of CFU/ml of P. aeruginosa decreased with increasing the dose of irradiation. Complete killing of cells was observed at 1.8
... Show MoreThe Anticyclone Merge affects Iraq’s climate clearly through its impact on the different climatic elements. where it appears while they pass through special and distinctive weather . and most of this affection appears in temperatures, Therefore, this research study the relationship between the repetition and the survival period of the Anticyclone Merge and temperature average by using coefficient correlation (Pearson) that shows there’s strong inverse relationship between the integration of Anticyclones and temperatures average. &nbs
... Show MoreThe study aims to make an in-depth analysis and the financial account components in the Iraqi balance of payments because it reflects the economic center of the country towards outside world, it also helps in making decision about monetary and financial policies, finance and foreign Trade the importance of FDI for Iraq lies as an important sources as wells provides advanced technology and job chances, It also avoids the country negative effects of borrowing processes from abroad . for analyzing direct and indirect foreign investment on the balance of payments and financial account in a period between (2003 to 2015), a community and research sample have been selected, presented in CBI/ Balance of payments. Department,
... Show MoreThe idea of this study depends on determining the demand of water to products of aslected project, and determining transformation wastes according to constant scientific formula and measuring value (the depended) to reach the water needed and give the amount of waste in water and additional areas that can be agricuitured if the right administration and possibilities of exploiting water well are available
المبادئ العامة للقانون ودرها في اطار التجارة الدولية
In the South of yement, when the accupation of Aden in 1839 by the British, British politics has proceeded in accordance with interests in promoting the existence and exploitation of this important site to implement their interests. Historians believe that Britain played a major role in the conflicts that have taken place on the land of Yemen, through a series of military and political dealings between them and the Ottoman Empire prior to withdrawal of Yemen and between local authorities and power to Yemen, such interactions have led to very serious consequences for the future of Yemen and Yemen was often divided into three parts, the northern areas under the authority of Imam Yahya, and the South, under the control of Britain, Asir and
... Show MoreAfrican countries are among the countries in the world that suffer from the phenomenon of child recruitment in wars and conflicts. There are many reasons behind it, including the nature of the human formation of children, the societal violence to which they are exposed, lack of access to education, economic hardships, as well as the role of African wars and conflicts and other reasons that compelled children to join armed groups and participate in military operations. The recruitment of children is divided into two types, compulsory and voluntary, and this leads to many humanitarian and security repercussions that are not limited to a specific period of time but extend to subsequent generations, and due to its seriousness, t
... Show MoreNations witnessed since its existence a state of wills conflict as a result of the intersection and intertwining of interests, through which it sought to achieve its goals and objectives, and this has often led to direct military conflicts and countless wars, and witnessed the entry into global wars in which humanity lost millions of lives and losses .Despite the great changes in the international arena, especially in recent decades, the conflict of wills has not ceased, although some of its features and forms have changed, and it has become more complicated after the withdrawal of this conflict to international organizations and bodies, including the Security Council. It is mandated under the Charter of the United Nations to wor
... Show MoreThe concept of power despite its implications unclear and unknown was one of the most standards in international relations ambiguity and lack of clarity, however was more standards important and influential in the conduct of international relations, and since that time until today since that ambiguity in the meaning of power and use it as a factor of international relations factors and drive the engines were very different and irony from case to case and from researcher to another, but it may be classified force as the international status enjoyed by the state in the international ocean and here is a structure formed of forces posed by the state, such as economic and political nature of the political system and military power and concept
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