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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of political thinking on the decision maker in analyzing the strategic environment of the state (applied study in the Iraqi Ministry of Finance)
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The Political Thinking Regarded as an important element for the formulation of the stat, weather in its formation, the structure of it s entity, its political system and it s governmental instruments .The political thinking can not act without determined strategy, So they intend to work hard to formulate a railed strategy that make them able to determine its  directions to general issues.

   The Study aimed to solve the problem through the following question:

1- What are the levels of Political Thinking and Strategic Analysis in the financial ministry?

2- What are the relation ship between the dimensions of Political  T

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 24 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Analytical Study of the Content of Social and National Studies Textbooks of the Middle Stage in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in the Light of the Values of Social Peace
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This study aimed to reveal the extent to which the values of social peace are included in the content of social and national studies textbooks of the middle stage in kingdom of Saudi Arabia. To achieve this goal, the researcher used the descriptive analytical approach. The study sample consisted of all developed social and national studies textbooks of the middle stage in kingdom of Saudi Arabia in first and second semester of student books in edition of 1439-1440. The study tool was the analysis card. The study reached the following results: 1-The content of social and national studies textbooks of the middle stage in kingdom of Saudi Arabia as a whole included (38) social peace values of total (40) values, corresponding to the inclusio

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 29 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Chicago School in Urban Sociology: A Socio-Historical Approach on the Pragmatic Thought Influence as a Theoretical Frame of Reference in it-1892-2020
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The present theoretical study analyzes the legacy of the Chicago School of Urban Sociology and evaluates it in the light of the growth and development of Chicago City and the establishment of sociology in it. Sociology has become an academic discipline recognized in the United States of America in the late nineteenth century, particularly, after the establishment of the first department of sociology in the University of Chicago in 1892. That was during the period of the rapid industrialization and sustainable growth of the Chicago City. The Chicago School relied on Chicago City in particular, as one of the American cities that grew and expanded rapidly in the first two decades of the twentieth century. At the end of the nineteenth centur

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 31 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Seemingly Unrelated Regression Model to Measure the Profitability of Some Iraqi Private Commercial Banks with Presence of Outliers
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A seemingly uncorrelated regression (SUR) model is a special case of multivariate models, in which the error terms in these equations are contemporaneously related. The method estimator (GLS) is efficient because it takes into account the covariance structure of errors, but it is also very sensitive to outliers. The robust SUR estimator can dealing outliers. We propose two robust methods for calculating the estimator, which are (S-Estimations, and FastSUR). We find that it significantly improved the quality of SUR model estimates. In addition, the results gave the FastSUR method superiority over the S method in dealing with outliers contained in the data set, as it has lower (MSE and RMSE) and higher (R-Squared and R-Square Adjus

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Modeling of Bending Properties of Stainless Steel 304 Sheets Welded by Tungsten Inert Gas Welding Process
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In this research, the effects of both current and argon gas pressure on the bending properties of welded joints were studied. Using the possible ranges of welding gas pressures and currents, Tungsten inert gas welding (TIG) of stainless steel (304) sheet was used to obtain their influence on the maximum bending force of the (TIG) welded joints. Design of experiment (DOE) ‘version 10' was used to determine the design matrix of experiments depending on the used levels of the input factors. Response surface methodology (RSM) technique was used to obtain an empirical mathematical model for the maximum bending force as a function of welding parameters (Current and Argon gas pressure). Also, the analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to verif

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2016
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Modeling the removal of Cadmium Ions from Aqueous Solutions onto Olive Pips Using Neural Network Technique
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The uptake of Cd(II) ions from simulated wastewater onto olive pips was modeled using artificial neural network (ANN) which consisted of three layers. Based on 112 batch experiments, the effect of contact time (10-240 min), initial pH (2-6), initial concentration (25-250 mg/l), biosorbent dosage (0.05-2 g/100 ml), agitation speed (0-250 rpm) and temperature (20-60ºC) were studied. The maximum uptake (=92 %) of Cd(II) was achieved at optimum parameters of 60 min, 6, 50 mg/l, 1 g/100 ml, 250 rpm and 25ºC respectively.

Tangent sigmoid and linear transfer functions of ANN for hidden and output layers respectively with 7 neurons were sufficient to present good predictions for cadmium removal efficiency with coefficient of correlatio

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 09 2018
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Neural Network Modeling of Cutting Force and Chip Thickness Ratio for Turning Aluminum Alloy 7075-T6
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The turning process has various factors, which affecting machinability and should be investigated. These are surface roughness, tool life, power consumption, cutting temperature, machining force components, tool wear, and chip thickness ratio. These factors made the process nonlinear and complicated. This work aims to build neural network models to correlate the cutting parameters, namely cutting speed, depth of cut and feed rate, to the machining force and chip thickness ratio. The turning process was performed on high strength aluminum alloy 7075-T6. Three radial basis neural networks are constructed for cutting force, passive force, and feed force. In addition, a radial basis network is constructed to model the chip thickness ratio. T

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Publication Date
Sat Jul 01 2006
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
العلاقات السياسية الدولية واستراتيجية ادارة الازمات
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العلاقات السياسية الدولية واستراتيجية ادارة الازمات

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 18 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Modified Approach by Using Prediction to Build a Best Threshold in ARX Model with Practical Application
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The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2010
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Prediction of Equilibrium Mixing Index and Optimum Mixing Time for Three solid materials in Fluidized Column
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     Equilibrium and rate of mixing of free flowing solid materials are found using gas fluidized bed. The solid materials were sand (size 0.7 mm), sugar (size0.7 mm) and 15% cast iron used as a tracer. The fluidizing gas was air with velocity ranged from 0.45-0.65 m/s while the mixing time was up to 10 minutes. The mixing index for each experiment was calculated by averaging the results of 10 samples taken from different radial and axial positions in fluidized QVF column 150 mm ID and 900 mm height.

     The experimental results were used in solving a mathematical model of mixing rate and mixing index at an equilibrium proposed by Rose. The results show that mixing index increases with inc

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