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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous varia

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Prediction of Surface Roughness after Turning of Duplex Stainless Steel (DSS)
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Feed Forward Back Propagation artificial neural network (ANN) model utilizing the MATLAB Neural Network Toolbox is designed for the prediction of surface roughness of Duplex Stainless Steel during orthogonal turning with uncoated carbide insert tool. Turning experiments were performed at various process conditions (feed rate, cutting speed, and cutting depth). Utilizing the Taguchi experimental design method, an optimum ANN architecture with the Levenberg-Marquardt training algorithm was obtained. Parametric research was performed with the optimized ANN architecture to report the impact of every turning parameter on the roughness of the surface. The results suggested that machining at a cutting speed of 355 rpm with a feed rate of 0.07 m

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Financial adjustment for the trend of financial policy of the Iraqi cooperative agricultural bank – during the period (1992-2015).
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Abstract

Financing is one of the important pillars for activating and activating the agricultural sector, through which we can see an agricultural project on the ground. However, supplying the agricultural sector with financial resources requires a credit policy that is capable of making the right financing decision, because the financial resources are limited. The credit policy, and the financing decision, must be the best use not only to provide the necessary money, but to work to provide everything that would develop and activate the agricultural sector.

The transformation of the Agricultural Cooperative Bank of Iraq from specialized banking to the overall would lead to a decrease in the volume

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
الطبعة الاولى
التدابير الدولية المضادة للفساد الاداري
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تعددت التعاريف اللغوية والاصطلاحية لمفهوم الفساد الإداري، ويتضح من خلال هذه التعريفات عدم وجود تعريف موحد له، إلا أنه بشكل عام يشير إلى الخروج على القانون والنظام أو استغلال المال العام لتحقيق مصالح سياسية أو اقتصادية أو اجتماعية لفرد أو جماعة معينة، مما يجعله عملًا غير أخلاقي يتميز بإساءة استعمال السلطة أو الموقع الوظيفي لمنح بعض الأفراد أفضلية على الآخرين. كما يتمثل الفساد الإداري في قيام الموظف العام با

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2011
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
وقائع ندوة فرع الدراسات الدولية
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وقائع ندوة فرع الدراسات الدولية

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2013
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Activities of International Studies Branch
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نشاطات فرع الدراسات الدولية

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 08 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
المعوقات والالتزامات الأسریة التي تواجھ المراة في عملھا
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This research aims to understand the main problems and family
commitments faced by working women, and make proposals that would stop or
lessen them, the researcher made questionnaire , applied on a sample of (20)
university female teachers, the study showed that the main problems in respect to
their importance as: Anxiety of leaving children at home alone, the weak role of the
nurseries and kindergartens in taking care of the children, relative large number of
children per family which would lead to more commitments, and the unavailability
of convenient working arrangement for working mothers.

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Publication Date
Sat Mar 26 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Role of Big Data applications in forecasting corporate bankruptcy: Field analysis in the Saudi Business Environment
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This study aimed to investigate the role of Big Data in forecasting corporate bankruptcy and that is through a field analysis in the Saudi business environment, to test that relationship. The study found: that Big Data is a recently used variable in the business context and has multiple accounting effects and benefits. Among the benefits is forecasting and disclosing corporate financial failures and bankruptcies, which is based on three main elements for reporting and disclosing that, these elements are the firms’ internal control system, the external auditing, and financial analysts' forecasts. The study recommends: Since the greatest risk of Big Data is the slow adaptation of accountants and auditors to these technologies, wh

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research obj

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 25 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Exploring Important Factors in Predicting Heart Disease Based on Ensemble- Extra Feature Selection Approach
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Heart disease is a significant and impactful health condition that ranks as the leading cause of death in many countries. In order to aid physicians in diagnosing cardiovascular diseases, clinical datasets are available for reference. However, with the rise of big data and medical datasets, it has become increasingly challenging for medical practitioners to accurately predict heart disease due to the abundance of unrelated and redundant features that hinder computational complexity and accuracy. As such, this study aims to identify the most discriminative features within high-dimensional datasets while minimizing complexity and improving accuracy through an Extra Tree feature selection based technique. The work study assesses the efficac

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