يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
In this paper, the Monte Carlo N-Particle extended computer code (MCNP) were used to design a model of the European Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor. The multiplication factor, conversion factor, delayed neutrons fraction, doppler constant, control rod worth, sodium void worth, masses for major heavy nuclei, radial and axial power distribution at high burnup are studied. The results show that the reactor breeds fissile isotopes with a conversion ratio of 0.994 at fuel burnup 70 (GWd/T), and minor actinides are buildup inside the reactor core. The study aims to check the efficiency of the model on the calculation of the neutronic parameters of the core at high burnup.
This paper deals with the design and implementation of an ECG system. The proposed system gives a new concept of ECG signal manipulation, storing, and editing. It consists mainly of hardware circuits and the related software. The hardware includes the circuits of ECG signals capturing, and system interfaces. The software is written using Visual Basic languages, to perform the task of identification of the ECG signal. The main advantage of the system is to provide a reported ECG recording on a personal computer, so that it can be stored and processed at any time as required. This system was tested for different ECG signals, some of them are abnormal and the other is normal, and the results show that the system has a good quality of diagno
... Show MoreThe research considers The Analysis Dimensions of The organizational citizen ship Behavior for a sample of the Faculty of the university of Baghdad through the five Dimensions of citizenship ((Altruism– couscientiosness– sportsmanship courtesy– civic virtue))
The sample contains (120) professor from four colleges of the Baghdad university.
The most Important conelusion is the rise of citizenship behavior level for the Iraqi professor through his generaliaed compliance for most dimensions of the citizenship behavior the most important recommanelations presenteel in research is the encouragement and development for this behavior because of its oby viosis impact on the p
... Show MoreThe performance evaluation process requires a set of criteria and for the purpose of measuring the level of performance achieved by the Unit and the actual level of development of its activities, and in view of the changes and of rapid and continuous variables surrounding the Performance is a reflection of the unit's ability to achieve its objectives, as these units are designed to achieve the objectives of exploiting a range of economic resources available to it, and the performance evaluation process is a form of censorship, focusing on the analysis of the results obtained from the achievement All its activities with a view to determining the extent to which the Unit has achieved its objectives using the resources available to it and h
... Show Moreيهدف هذا البحث الى تصميم قائمة بمؤشرات القيم العلمية والاخلاقية التي ينبغي توافرها في محتوى كتاب الحاسوب للصف الثاني المتوسط، وتحليل محتوى الكتاب المذكور آنفاً وفقاً لها، وذلك عن طريق الإجابة عن السؤال الآتي: ما نسبة توافر القيم العلمية والأخلاقية في محتوى كتاب الحاسوب المُعد لطلبة الصف الثاني المتوسط الصادر من وزارة التربية العراقية/ المديرية العامة للمناهج في العام الدراسي ( 2017-2018) م؟ ولتحقيق هدفا البحث أ
... Show MoreThe research aims to estimate missing values using covariance analysis method Coons way to the variable response or dependent variable that represents the main character studied in a type of multi-factor designs experiments called split block-design (SBED) so as to increase the accuracy of the analysis results and the accuracy of statistical tests based on this type of designs. as it was noted in the theoretical aspect to the design of dissident sectors and statistical analysis have to analyze the variation in the experience of experiment )SBED) and the use of covariance way coons analysis according to two methods to estimate the missing value, either in the practical side of it has been implemented field experiment wheat crop in
... Show MoreThe sentence is one building unit in a music that has a full meaning which in the end takes a long silence .The sentence bases made the sentences with intransitive verb ( non connection ) and the sentences are made with general verb (connection ) .The sentence parts :Verbal sentence –supportive sentence , sentence without a verb .
The method of divide the sentence into these syntax units ( face division ) or (analysis and to each of the syntax units resulted from dividing the sentence to sections made to the end the characterizes the smaller syntax units ,the words .The method of analyze the surface structure of Persian language sentence is exchange method.  
... Show MoreThe purpose of current study is to analyze the computer textbooks content for intermediate stage in Iraq according to the theory of multiple intelligence. By answering the following question “what is the percentage of availability of multiple intelligence in the content of the computer textbooks on intermediate stage (grade I, II) for the academic year (2017-2018)? The researcher followed the descriptive analytical research approach (content analysis), and adopted an explicit idea for registration. The research tool was prepared according the Gardner’s classification of multiple intelligence. It has proven validity and reliability. The study found the percentage of multiple intelligence in the content of computer textbooks for the in
... Show MoreIn this paper, a modified derivation has been introduced to analyze the construction of C-space. The profit from using C-space is to make the process of path planning more safety and easer. After getting the C-space construction and map for two-link planar robot arm, which include all the possible situations of collision between robot parts and obstacle(s), the A* algorithm, which is usually used to find a heuristic path on Cartesian W-space, has been used to find a heuristic path on C-space map. Several modifications are needed to apply the methodology for a manipulator with degrees of freedom more than two. The results of C-space map, which are derived by the modified analysis, prove the accuracy of the overall C-space mapping and cons
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The article critically analyzes traditional translation models. The most influential models of translation in the second half of the 20th century have been mentioned, among which the theory of formal and dynamic equivalence, the theory of regular correspondences, informative, situational-denotative, functional-pragmatic theory of communication levels have been considered. The selected models have been analyzed from the point of view of the universality of their use for different types and types of translation, as well as the ability to comprehend the deep links established between the original and the translation.
Аннотация