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تحليل وقياس الاستدامة المالية لصندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي في العراق للمدة 2004-2018
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يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 20 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Natural-Convection Phenomenon from a Finned Heated Vertical Tube: Experimental Analysis
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       In this work, an experimental analysis is made to predict the thermal performance of the natural-convection phenomenon from a heated vertical externally finned-tube to surrounding air through an open-ended enclosure. Two different configurations of longitudinal rectangular fin namely, continuous and interrupted are utilized with constant thickness, different numbers, and different heights are extended radially on the outer surface of a heated tube. The tube is heated electrically from inner surface with five varied power input magnitudes. The effect of fins configuration, fins number, fins height, and heat flux of the inner tube surface on the thermal performance of natural c

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analysis of Robust Principal Components Depends on the some methods of Projection-Pursuit
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The analysis of the classic principal components are sensitive to the outliers where they are calculated from the characteristic values and characteristic vectors of correlation matrix or variance Non-Robust, which yields an incorrect results in the case of these data contains the outliers values. In order to treat this problem, we resort to use the robust methods where there are many robust methods Will be touched to some of them.

   The robust measurement estimators include the measurement of direct robust estimators for characteristic values by using characteristic vectors without relying on robust estimators for the   variance and covariance matrices. Also the analysis of the princ

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 28 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
An Autocorrelative Approach for EMG Time-Frequency Analysis
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As they are the smallest functional parts of the muscle, motor units (MUs) are considered as the basic building blocks of the neuromuscular system. Monitoring MU recruitment, de-recruitment, and firing rate (by either invasive or surface techniques) leads to the understanding of motor control strategies and of their pathological alterations. EMG signal decomposition is the process of identification and classification of individual motor unit action potentials (MUAPs) in the interference pattern detected with either intramuscular or surface electrodes. Signal processing techniques were used in EMG signal decomposition to understand fundamental and physiological issues. Many techniques have been developed to decompose intramuscularly detec

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Use Principal Component Analysis Technique to Dimensionality Reduction to Multi Source
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This paper tackles with principal component analysis method (PCA ) to dimensionality reduction in the case of linear combinations to digital image processing and analysis. The PCA is statistical technique that shrinkages a multivariate data set consisting of inter-correlated variables into a data set consisting of variables that are uncorrelated linear combination, while ensuring the least possible loss of useful information. This method was applied to a group of satellite images of a certain area in the province of Basra, which represents the mouth of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers in the Shatt al-Arab in the province of Basra.

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Buckling and Pre Stressed Dynamics Analysis of Laminated Composite Plate with Different Boundary Conditions
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Critical buckling and natural frequencies behavior of laminated composite thin plates subjected to in-plane uniform load is obtained using classical laminated plate theory (CLPT). Analytical investigation is presented using Ritz- method for eigenvalue problems of buckling load solutions for laminated symmetric and anti-symmetric, angle and cross ply composite plate with different elastic supports along its edges. Equation of motion of the plate was derived using principle of virtual work and solved using modified Fourier displacement function that satisfies general edge conditions. Various numerical investigation were studied to exhibit a convergence and accuracy of the present solution for considering some design parameters such as edge

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Vibration Analysis of Cross-Ply Plates Under Initial Stress Using Refined Theory
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Natural frequency under initial stresses for simply supported cross-ply composite laminated plates (E glass- fiber) are obtained using Refind theory (RPT). This theory accounts for parabolic distribution of the transverse shear strain through the plate thickness and satisfies the zero traction boundary conditions on the surfaces of the plate without using shear correction factors. The governing equations for Eigen value problem under initial stress are derived using Hamilton’s principle and solved using Navier solution for simply supported cross-ply symmetric and antisymmetric laminated plates. The effect of many design factors such as modulus ratio, thickness ratio and number of laminates on the Natural frequency and buckling stresses

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 05 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
An Asymptotic Analysis of the Gradient Remediability Problem for Disturbed Distributed Linear Systems
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The goal of this work is demonstrating, through the gradient observation of a   of type linear ( -systems), the possibility for reducing the effect of any disturbances (pollution, radiation, infection, etc.) asymptotically, by a suitable choice of related actuators of these systems. Thus, a class of  ( -system) was developed based on finite time  ( -system). Furthermore, definitions and some properties of this concept -system and asymptotically gradient controllable system ( -controllable) were stated and studied. More precisely, asymptotically gradient efficient actuators ensuring the weak asymptotically gradient compensation system ( -system) of known or unknown disturbances are examined. Consequently, under convenient hypo

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The contribution of the tax authorities to increase the tax revenues: An applied research on a sample of the supporting bodies in the health sector for the period 1998-2008
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the research was exposed to a study the importance of the role of the supportive entities in providing the useful information to the tax administration and their ability to extend the level of the tax base of taxpayers, through the improvement of the tax payers determination and their tax settle for the purpose of increasing the tax revenue, and shed light on the legal evidence through which these entities become officially assigned to perform a supplementary task to the General Committee for Taxes GCT, to help it to perform its task efficiently, and to study the reasons of the weak cooperation of the supportive entities and their reluctance to provide useful information which leads to limiting the tax base.

The research data hav

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The added value of the knowledge assets using a scale (VAIC) in a sample of the industrial sector companies
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The sustainable competitive advantage for organizations is one of the requirements for value creation, which centered on the possession of scarce resources that achieve maximum flows to invest in intellectual capital, if what has been interest in them, measured and employed the way properly and style, so I figured the need for new technologies to enable organizations to measure the intellectual and physical assets and to assess its performance accordingly, so it sheds search light on the measurement of the added value of existing knowledge using the standard value-added factor is the intellectual (value added intellectual coefficient) (VAIC) and to develop a set of assumptions about the extent of the difference between the sample

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Developing Human Capital according to the Communities of Practice: A comparative study by using Data Envelopment Analysis
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The research discusses the need to find the innovative structures and methodologies for developing Human Capital (HC) in Iraqi Universities. One of the most important of these structures is Communities of Practice (CoPs) which contributes to develop HC by using learning, teaching and training through the conversion speed of knowledge and creativity into practice. This research has been used the comparative approach through employing the methodology of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) by using (Excel 2010 - Solver) as a field evidence to prove the role of CoPs in developing HC. In light of the given information, a researcher adopted on an archived preliminary data about (23) colleges at Mosul University as a deliberate sample for t

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