يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
The study seeks to identify e-governance requirements in human resources management, which are (administrative requirements, technical, human, financial, and security) which is a new style differs from the traditional management pattern, where work depends on multiple forms and methods of Tools, (e. g. computers and various electronic software), by relying on powerful information systems that help to make management decisions as quickly and less effortless and less expensive to keep up with the tremendous technological advancements in the field of information and communication technology revolution.
The sample included 132 Person who constitute a position (Director General, assistant Director General, section managers and d
... Show MoreThis study tests the effect of a large number of independent variables that control the growth of the total productivity, which amounted to 112 variables, gathered from what is mentioned in the specialized theoretical and applied literature. The data for these variables were taken from global reports of sound international organizations and reliable databases covering the period 1991-2016. The data of the dependent variable, the growth of the total factor productivity, were taken from the database of the world development indicators. The study covered 61 countries for which data were available. The study included three regression models to explain
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Public relations are amongst the social sciences that rely on scientific methods in achieving new knowledge or resolving existing problems by means of its scientific researches that are often applied and require a classification in terms of their results’ analysis. It also requires subtle statistical processes whether in constructing their material or in analyzing and interpreting their results.
This research seeks to identify the relation between public relations and statistics, and the significance a researcher or practitioner in the domain of public relations should assign to statistics being one of the important criteria in identifying the accuracy and object
... Show MoreThe current study aims to cover the health topics in the Iraqi journalism , to know the concern 's level of the Iraqi journalism when covering the health subjects and to know the size of its performance under the diversity of visual and audio medias. The researcher has discussed his research by wording it with a set of inquiries that should be answered via the research and study. He could have determined that by the following:
What is the concern's level of Iraqi journalism over the health subjects? What are the forms and press arts that are functionalized by the Iraqi journalism as to get the health message to the republics? What is t
... Show MoreThe research is aimed at investigating how the New York Times framed the war against ISIS in its news coverage and which news sources it adopted while reporting on this war.
The research could be classified under descriptive researches. The survey methodology has been adopted and the content analysis has been used. The research sample consists of all the news stories the New York Times have published about the war against ISIS from 10/17/2016 to 4/16/2017 according to the comprehensive sampling method. The number of news stories that were analyzed was (155) news story. The research tool was (coding scheme).
The research has reached the following conclusions:
1. In its news coverage of the war against ISIS, the New York T
يهدف هذا البحث إلى تحليل محتوى كتابي الحاسوب للمرحلة المتوسطة في العراق وفقاً لنظرية الذكاءات المتعددة عن طريق الإجابة عن السؤال الآتي: ما نسبة توافر الذكاءات المتعددة في محتوى كتابي الحاسوب المقرران على طلبة المرحلة المتوسطة (الصفين الأول والثاني) للعام الدراسي (2017-2018) م؟ ولتحقيق هدف البحث اتبعت الباحثة منهج البحث الوصفي التحليلي (تحليل المحتوى)، واعتمدت الفكرة الصريحة وحده للتسجيل، أما أداة البحث فهي أداة
... Show MoreMalaysia has been supported by one of the high-speed fiber internet connections called TM UniFi. TM UniFi is very familiar to be used as a medium to apply Small Office Home Office (SOHO) concept due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Most of the communication vendors offer varieties of network services to fulfill customers' needs and satisfaction during the pandemic. Quality of Services is queried by most users by the fact of increased on users from time to time. Therefore, it is crucial to know the network performance contrary to the number of devices connected to the TM UniFi network. The main objective of this research is to analyze TM UniFi performance with the impact of multiple device connections or users' services. The study was conducted
... Show MoreThe aim of this research is to diagnose the impact of competitive dimensions represented by quality, cost, time, flexibility on the efficiency of e-learning, The research adopted the descriptive analytical method by identifying the impact of these dimensions on the efficiency of e-learning, as well as the use of the statistical method for the purpose of eliciting results. The research concluded that there is an impact of the competitive dimensions on the efficiency of e-learning, as it has been proven that the special models for each of the research hypotheses are statistically significant and at a level of significance of 5%, and that each of these dimensions has a positive impact on the dependent variable, and the research recommended
... Show MoreEn el contexto de la disponibilidad léxica, Esta investigación surge de la necesidad de enseñar, a los estudiantes extranjeros de comunicación que cursan sus estudios en nuestra universidad, el español especializado que realmente necesitan. La metodología disponibilidad léxica ofrece una oportunidad en cuanto a la elaboración de los manuales.
Abstract
This article presents the lexical availability as a practical tool, this research can be exploited didactically in the teaching of vocabulary as a foreign languages LE.