يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
It reflects the gross domestic product in any country total output of goods and services by the size of the country's citizens and foreign residents during the period of the year and reflect the contribution of the commodity sectors of the economy and the distribution and service in the composition of output. And gross domestic product in Iraq as an indicator dominated in the composition of oil output, along with the contribution of the service sector, as the gross domestic product is the output of a yield lien and subjected GDP in Iraq to a series of declines succession due to vibrations of the oil market during the economic blockade on the one hand and stop imported production inputs, lack of arriving in commodity s
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The research aims to identify the magnitude of the impact of external debt on the gross domestic product in Morocco, and the importance of research lies in the role that external debt plays in addressing structural imbalances, if it is best disposed of according to well-studied economic plans by specialists in this regard, especially if these debts are directed with Other resources, as it helps pay the costs of these debts (debt servicing) that the external debt also raises the level of gross domestic product, and the research starts from the hypothesis that: There is an effect of foreign debt on the GDP in Morocco, has contributed in one way or another to The exacerbation of the external debt, which affected the m
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It is clear to everyone how important it is to implement transactions electronically, as it facilitates the provision of services to beneficiaries, whether individuals or institutions, to achieve many benefits that are not exclusive to the beneficiary or the applicant, but extends to the governmental and international bodies. And the number of users has reached millions since its emergence in 1995, because the concepts of electronic transactions have great advantages for the economy in general and the banking sector in particular, so cooperation in various fields with the aim of becoming an information society has become paramount, It allows customers to pay money to any company they want t
... Show Moreهذه الورقة البحثية تهدف الى مناقشة سبل تطوير التعليم العالي في العالم العربي والارتقاء به لخلق راسمال بشري وثقافي قادر على مواجهة تحديات العصر، فالتنمية الاقتصادية في العصر الحالي ما عادت تعتمد على المواد الاولية بل على القيمة الابداعية للانسان التي اصبحت اساسية في المنافسة الحالية بين الشعوب الانسانية و اصبح الفكر المبدع هو المنافس الحقيقي المهم حيث تصنع احدث الاجهزة الحديثة باحجام صغيرة ومواد اولية اقل
... Show MoreIs the subject of environmental analysis of the important issues that should occupy the attention of the departments of banks in general and banks in particular, the research sample, regardless of their size and the nature of its activity, So if the current era and witnessing rapid developments and changes, making the banking environment is more complex and interconnected than ever, And it became not possible for banks to be aware and understand the external environment variables without an analysis of the various constituent elements and influential heavily in its financial and administrative,Therefore research aims to find out the relationship between the external environment and banking facilities analysis application on the Rafidain
... Show MoreOvako Working Postures Analyzing System (OWAS) is a widely used method for studying awkward working postures in workplaces. This study with OWAS, analyzed working postures for manual material handling of laminations at stacking workstation for water pump assembly line in Electrical Industrial Company (EICO) / Baghdad. A computer program, WinOWAS, was used for the study. In real life workstation was found that more than 26% of the working postures observed were classified as either AC2 (slightly harmful), AC3 (distinctly harmful). Postures that needed to be corrected soon (AC3) and corresponding tasks, were identified. The most stressful tasks observed were grasping, handling, and positioning of the laminations from workers. The construct
... Show MoreLoanwords are the words transferred from one language to another, which become essential part of the borrowing language. The loanwords have come from the source language to the recipient language because of many reasons. Detecting these loanwords is complicated task due to that there are no standard specifications for transferring words between languages and hence low accuracy. This work tries to enhance this accuracy of detecting loanwords between Turkish and Arabic language as a case study. In this paper, the proposed system contributes to find all possible loanwords using any set of characters either alphabetically or randomly arranged. Then, it processes the distortion in the pronunciation, and solves the problem of the missing lette
... Show MoreThe present paper aims at investigating the linguistic image portrayed by UNICEF reports on the Iraqi child from a critical discourse analysis perspective during Covid19 pandemic (2020). The paper attempts to fill a gap in research literature concerning the linguistic construction of the Iraqi child by the UNICEF reports during the critical health crisis of Covid19. Van Leeuwen’s (2008) approach of social actor representation has been adopted for this purpose. From Van Leeuwen’s approach, the category of determination (single determination and overdetermination) has been selected to be the main analytical tool for its high compatibility with the set of objectives put forward to figure out how such a globally effective and
... Show MorePoetry is regarded an interesting area of inquiry in linguistic studies due to its eccentric and aesthetic use of language. A lot of studies have been carried out so far for the analysis of poetry, yet few have dealt with pastoral poetry. The present research attempts to investigate the language of pastoral poetry in two different languages i.e. English and Arabic with the aim of finding similarities and differences. The data of the study consists of one English and one Arabic pastoral poems. Leech and Short's (2007) checklist is used as a model for analysis. The findings of the study reveal that there are more similarities than differences between English and Arabic pastoral poems as the poems rely on contrast
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