يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
Turkman literature is regarded as a branch of the general Turkish literarure. The title Turman literature began to be used after 1918, and this remained under the influence of classical Turkishliterature till the beginning of the twentieth century. The best poets who repreesented this type are Hijri Dada, Khidir Lütfi, Mohammad Sadiq, Othman Mathloom and others…
In this study I followed the method of Professor Doctor Mohammad Kaplan (Ph.D) and Professor Doctor Nurullah Çetin(Ph.D) in analysing the poetical design. In this study I tried to analyse the poem entitled Taliim (My Fate) by the poet Khidir Lütfi and the poet Othman mathloom who wrote a poem wi
... Show MoreAbstract
This study dealt with " The Strategic analysis of Operating Income". The study Concerned with two main variables, they are: Strategic analysis and operating income and used one of the total strategic analysis tools, it is "resources analysis method" through analysing the change in operating income in the years that taken in comparing in three components: growth, price recovery and productivity.
To achieve the goal of the research, the study depended upon a hypothesis, "The strategic analysis of operating income leads to supply the appropriate information for the management to make sure of executing its definite strategies".
There is agroup o
... Show MoreThis study deals with the estimation of critical load of unidirectional polymer matrix composite plates by using experimental and finite element techniques at different fiber angles and fiber volume fraction of the composite plate.
Buckling analysis illustrated that the critical load decreases in nonlinear relationship with the increase of the fiber angle and that it increases with the increase of the fiber volume fraction.
The results show that the maximum value of the critical load is (629.54 N/m) at (q = 0°) and (Vf = 40 %) for the finite element method, while the minimum val
... Show MoreThis paper deals with the ideological positioning of the English poet John Donne in a selected poems of his i.e Holy Sonnet X, as regards the theme of death found therein. The researchers adopt an emerging branch of stylistics, called Critical Stylistics, as proposed by Jeffries (2010) in order to uncover the ideologies of the author regarding the topic concerned and how linguistic choices are used to slant ideas. The model is comprised of ten tools of analysis which, upon being applied to the selected data, have shown how the poet exploits language resources in order to pass his ideology and influence his readers. In this paper, the workings of only one tool are presented as applied to a certain portion of the data.
Waste recycling is one of the modern means of treating waste and minimizing its harmful effects that have caused problems for all countries of the world through the disposal of them in a safe and healthy manner as well as achieving economic and social benefits to the United Nations, and through the goals of sustainable development. 2015-2013 seeks to solve the environmental problems, including various peoples of the world, through various projects and programs, including waste recycling. Here is the question of whether there is a relationship between waste recycling and the goals of sustainable development, the research seeks to answer through five categories to determine the type of relationship between waste recycling and the g
... Show MoreThe main objective of this research is to design and select a composite plate to be used in fabricating wing skins of light unman air vehicle (UAV). The mechanical properties, weight and cost are the basis criteria of this selection. The fiber volume fraction, fillers and type of fiber with three levels for each were considered to optimize the composite plate selection. Finite element method was used to investigate the stress distribution on the wing at cruise flight condition in addition to estimate the maximum stress. An experiments plan has been designed to get the data on the basis of Taguchi technique. The most effective parameters at the process to be find out by employing L9
... Show MoreAnalysis of Covariance consider to be quite important procedure to reduce the effect of some independents factors before going through the experiment.
By this procedure we can compare variances causes from the difference between treatments and error term variance of they are equals or less than consider to be not significant, otherwise if is significant.
We carry on with this comparison until we find the greatest covser for the significant variance flam the treatments.
There are methods can be used like least significant difference method, Duncan method and Turkeys' w-procedure and Student Newman.
Key Word: Analysis of variatio
... Show MoreThe aim the research that definition on the impact a lot of Analysis and evaluation jobs impact in support the employees performance the property that are Analysis and evaluation jobs is one of the jobs however of the human resource management on organization and the impact footpace big on the chractericties and performance of the people and the impact that success of the organization , And here problem stool of the research in the omission the role for the Analysis and evaluation jobs impact in support the employees performance from the upward management in the organization , Polls were adopted as tools for obtaining data and the Depart
... Show More
It is easy to talk about democracy, but it is difficult to practice. We talk about postmodernism, but difficult to be embodied in the ground. Yet, the age of democracy and modernity at the same time prompted the researcher to try to find a media concept for it. It does not mean that this concept has not yet formed. But the rooting of democracy and the approaching of states and groups towards it, made it necessary to by studied again.
The relationship between democracy and the media has made them look like one concept. The existence of one is linked to the existence of the other. The reality is only a linguistic formulation, but the social and cultural aspect is related to democracy origin
... Show MoreThe evaluation of banks plays an important role in maintaining the interests of customers with the bank as well as providing continuous supervision and control by the Central Bank. The Central Bank of Iraq conducted an assessment of the Iraqi banks through the implementation of the CAMEL model during a certain period. This evaluation did not continue. The research provides continuity to the Central Bank's assessment and as a step to continue the evaluation process for all banks through the use of the CAMEL model. ROA and ROE by using the regression model for four Iraqi banks registered in the Iraqi market for securities during the period 2010-2016. The results showed that the capital and profitability indicators have a significan
... Show More