يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
I came back and made my jewelery from the first research or studies known to man, and the oldest era and confirmed the problem of searching for the links of sweets and admiration of the magnificence of the effectiveness of the search for the importance of preserving the heritage of the Iraqi civilization in its original creative aspects. Metal in Iraq, Head Costume, Neck Costume, Party Costume (Hands and Legs). The main results of the research were;
1-Contemporary folk jewelry in Iraq was characterized by design units for use.
Dependence in the feed industry in the form of laboratory mold.
Bumpiness in the atmosphere is the vertical movement of air, whether
upward or downward movement and the bumpiness is accompanied by areas
of unrest in the air and wind. And contribute to each of the coups thermal
fronts, wind, wind and thunderstorms. Moreover, bumpiness is net of the
reasons that lead to circumstances is appropriate to cut the wind, and this
contributes to the formation of bumpiness in the atmosphere. The study found
that the noon of the times, which is expected to occur where clear-air
bumpiness during flights because of the warmth of the earth's surface. The
study found increased incidence of air hole during the summer, especially
July, due to increased incidence of coup surface, while the s
هدفت الدراسة لالقاء الضوء على وضع المرأة في التعليم العالي في العراق خلال الاعوام الدراسية: 2008 - 2009, 2010 – 2011 و2011- 2012. تتيح القوانين والتعليمات في التعليم العالي في العراق فرص متكافئة للاناث والذكور للتسجيل في الدراسات الاولية والعليا، وكذلك عدم التمييز في الرواتب الشهرية للمنتسبين وفقا لنوع الجنس (الجندر ). بلغ متوسط عدد الاناث في مرحلة الدراسة الاولية في مؤسسات التعليم العالي في العراق لثلا
... Show MoreThe Economist opinion (views) gathered on the great Importance’s of small enterprise on the production sectors at Developed or in developing countries, statistics indicate that these enterprise represent almost 90% of the total enterprises in most economies in the world.
Many of these enterprises have originated in Iraq since the beginning of last century and the question of financing these enterprises remained an issue facing the most of workers in this sector, because of the peculiarty of which are characterized by which as a lack of financial abilities and the difficulty of obtain the sources of financing in Iraq and considered the enterprise as the guarantor of fulfilling Financial obligations. Afte
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The current research aims to develop a guidance program suitable for high school students and apply it to them in order to ensure the reduction of addiction to the use of different means of communication. The researchers used the scale of addiction to the means of communication (SAS) to measure the level of addiction as well as to identify the impact of the proposed guidance program in reducing the degree of addiction to communication. It was applied to a sample of (20) female students divided equally into two groups: an experimental group of (10) female students and a control group of (10) female students from the secondary level in a school under the department of education in the education of the alma
... Show Moreالعراق ومنطقة الخليج
The goal of this research to identify a set of criteria that can be measured on the basis of which the effectiveness of the application of the Balanced Scorecard in the Jordanian Public Institutions in order to identify the basic requirements to ensure the application of balanced performance measures. The study population consisted of the staff of the Public Institution for Social Security - Irbid of directors of departments and heads of departments and administrative staff, was the use of a random sample of (50) an employee and the employee. The questionnaire was used as a tool to collect data, and as a result of subjecting these standards for the field test and the use of statistical analysis tools to the results of the study c
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The research aims to identify the factors that affect the quality of the product by using the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) tool and to suggest measures to reduce the deviations or defects in the production process. I used the case study approach to reach its goals, and the air filter product line was chosen in the air filters factory of Al-Zawraa General Company. The research sample was due to the emergence of many defects of different impact and the continuing demand for the product. I collected data and information from the factory records for two years (2018-2019) and used a scheme Pareto Fishbone Diagram as well as an FMEA tool to analyze data and generate results.
Par
... Show Morehe current research aims at showing the correlation and effect of the internal environment analysis in the quality of health service in AL_Elwiya Maternity Teaching Hospital, researcher depended on the integral method in the "analytical descriptive method" for the study of the relation between the main variables and the sub-variables throughout data collection required by the theme of this study, a case study" in tackling the data and information related to the financial aspects of the internal environment.
The problem of the study was manifested in the essential question, that is (is there internal struc
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