يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
The Developing economies of countries have witnessed essential changes to words the development of tourism industry in the 21st century . in addition to adopting same of policies and strategies to grow up with the tourism sector to make it one of the important economic sector to compete the tourist cal developments in the wear .
As for the tourism sector in Iraq ,it's still afresh one , has many of elements which can be in vested ,needs a wide strategies of tourist cal in statutes and variety completive services and change of success for the locale and forgin investor ,the essential aim after this research is to prompt the national economic through the tourism industry and making concisen
... Show MoreThis study focuses on the basics of cultivation and production of the Wheat Crop in
Wasit Province ; in order to reveal the reality of the geographical distribution of its cultivation
and production.
Wheat is the most important field crops cultivated in Wasit province, as it has vast
possibilities for expansion in growing and production, in which agriculture conducted in a
year and left in other , then changing this method would increase cultivated area of it to nearly
doubled, as well as the possibility of increasing average yields in Donam by using improved
seeds, fertilizer, with the availability of water lever machines, especially wheat is grown in
areas of rivers abutment.
The study showed the spread of th
Increased attention to corporate governance with the increasing need for investors and other parties in the Iraqi market for securities of the information credible and confidence and greater transparency in the disclosure as well as the systems of governance lead to raise the value of the company and that by reducing the cost of capital and reduce the cost of financing, as well as that there are indications modern measurement can be adopted by the Iraqi market for securities for the purpose of evaluating the performance of listed companies and then raise their value.
The research problem is that there is no framework or structure of the legal and local rules for the application of corporate governance in Iraq obliges
... Show MoreThis research discusses the developmental role of the social worker in providing care for children at risk. The research is desicriptive in nature include both the theoretical and field aspects. The theoretical aspect focuses on the characteristics and requirements of these children and what forms and implications are exposed to them by society, what is the developmental role of the social worker in the rehabilitation of this group. As for the field aspect, the study sample took a (40) social workers who working in Aiwa institutions inside Baghdad. A questionnaire of (14) questions was used as tool to collect the needed data.
The Abbasid Caliphate generally paid attention to the financial aspect through the collection of resources , And also in terms of spending these resources
The study aims at showing the Importance of the Corporate of Governances to the Activate the quality and integrity of financial reports prepared inside the companies through explaining what they should be obliged to in writing the reports and financial and nonfinancial statements according to the international standards of accounting to be transparent and integral. It also aims at giving the independence that the auditors should enjoy through connecting them to an Auditing Commissions to submit additional services in addition to assessing the instrument of control to evaluate risks, give consultations and the services related to the governance and independence of Supervising Council. &
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The research aims to study the reliability of government institutions, including the audit directors, which are one of the most important oversight formations in the Ministry of Construction, Housing and Public Municipalities, on which the responsibility for comprehensive auditing of all the Ministry's (municipalities) formations falls on the Managing the Audit Program according to the specification (ISO 19011: 2018) to improve the audit performance which requires compliance with the application of the audit management system in accordance with the standard Specification (ISO 19011: 2018), depending on the methodology of the case study, and using of checklists, which were chosen ac
... Show MoreAs the process of estimate for model and variable selection significant is a crucial process in the semi-parametric modeling At the beginning of the modeling process often At there are many explanatory variables to Avoid the loss of any explanatory elements may be important as a result , the selection of significant variables become necessary , so the process of variable selection is not intended to simplifying model complexity explanation , and also predicting. In this research was to use some of the semi-parametric methods (LASSO-MAVE , MAVE and The proposal method (Adaptive LASSO-MAVE) for variable selection and estimate semi-parametric single index model (SSIM) at the same time .
... Show MoreThe aim of the present study is to identify the level of prosoical behavior of Baghdad University's students and to recognize the differences between male and female students. Moreover, it also aims to identify the level of openness to experience for these students. A random sample of (123) students has been selected; 77 males and 46 females. Two scales have been used in the study. The Prosocialness scale for adults by Caprara. Et al (2005) has been translated into the Arabic language and relies on four types of actions (Helping, Sharing, Taking care, and feeling Empathetic with others) and the other scale is the Openness to Experience Scale, which is one of the Big Five Inventory by John and Srivastava (1999). The main results showed a
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