يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
This research aims to study the important of the effect of analysis of covariance manner for one of important of design for multifactor experiments, which called split-blocks experiments design (SBED) to deal the problem of extended measurements for a covariate variable or independent variable (X) with data of response variable or dependent variable Y in agricultural experiments that contribute to mislead the result when analyze data of Y only. Although analysis of covariance with discussed in experiments with common deign, but it is not found information that it is discussed with split-Blocks experiments design (SBED) to get rid of the impact a covariance variable. As part application actual field experiment conducted, begun at
... Show Moreه رثا قيقحتلو ،ةيبساحملا تامولعملا ةميق ةمئلام يف قيقدتلا ةنجلل ةيبساحملاو ةيلاملا ةربخلاو ةيللاقتسلاا ثحبلا تايضرف رابتخلا ةمزلالا تانايبلا عمجل ةنابتسا ةرامتسا مادختساب ةثحابلا تماق ةساردلا فده ةللاد وذ رثأ دجوي(يهو ةيبساحملاو ةيلاملا ةربخلل ةيئاصحإ ةللاد وذ رثا دجوي( ، )ةيبساحملا تامولعملا ةميق ةمئلام ىلع قيقدتلا ةنجل ةيللاقتسلا ةيئاصحا )ةيبساحملا تامولعملا ةميق ةمئلام ىلع ( نم تنوكت ةنيع ىلع تعزو ث
... Show MoreSource of energy and protein Field crops considered an important needed for human
beings Due of this fact increases should appear in the quantities of their production in order to
meet the needs of continuous increasing in the population of the glope year after year ;
otherwise, an increase in the gap between the amount of production and consumption will
occur .
This study aims to reveal the geographical distribution of the potato crop in the district
of Abu – Ghraib. For this purpose, a study conducted about the cultivated areas, production
and crop yields per Dunam for period of 7 years lasted from 2005-2011.
The study shows that potato is one of the most important field crops that are grown in
the Abu –
The study population growth of the most important demographic phenomena upon which planners to meet changes in the size of the population increase is through knowledge of the requirements of population growth can be planned for the future. On this basis, Tuz District was chosen for the study of population growth, which set her period (1977-2012), and compared with the growth of the population of the province and the extent of the variation in population growth, according to the administrative units, has touched search numerical and proportional distribution of the population according to the administrative aspects of the judiciary, as well as environmental distribution.
The elimination of the study population growth dramatically
... Show MoreThe current research seeks to achieve several objectives, including knowing the extent of the audit directorate of the Ministry of Construction, Housing and General Municipalities of the International Standard (ISO19011:2018) regarding determining the efficiency and evaluation of auditors and diagnosing the gap between requirements and application and knowing the reasons for not applying some of the items in the standard, starting from the problem, The field raised the following question (Does the audit directorate determine the efficiency and evaluation of auditors according to the standard ISO19011:2018?), and the importance of research lies in determining the return that can be achieved by the directorate through its application of stand
... Show MoreThe purpose of the research is to identify the social capital of the Municipality of Samawah Municipality by defining the level of its three dimensions (the structural dimension, the relational dimension and the cognitive dimension) and identifying the appropriate means that contribute to increasing the structural empowerment of the workers in the Municipality of Samawah. Between the social capital and the structural empowerment of the workers. From the perspective of social capital, the researchers examined the correlation and the effect of dimensions (structural, relational, cognitive) on the structural empowerment of the workers and with data collected from a sample of (168) Samawah, which is part of the Ministry of Constructi
... Show MoreObjective: To know the impact of social networks on the mental health of adolescents in the city of Diwaniyah.
Methodology: A descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted on adolescents in preparatory schools in ALDiwaniyah
City Center, for the period from Jun 26, 2015 through to October 20, 2015. The schools were
selected from using Probability sampling (240 random samples) six schools were selected from 32 schools (20 %
from total number) the schools were chosen by writing the names of all schools on a pieces of paper and put in
bags. Then, selected six schools random, three boys schools (2 preparatory and 1 secondary) three girls schools
(2 preparatory and 1 secondary), then I chose the sample the students in grad
The current research aims to study social capital and its effect in enhancing the psychological empowerment of workers through the two variables of social capital within its dimensions (structural, relational, cognitive) and the variable of psychological empowerment within its components (ability, meaning, personal will and influence). The questionnaire was used as a main tool in the collection of data and with data collected from a sample of 168 employees in the Municipality of Samawa Municipality, which is part of the Ministry of Construction, Housing, Municipalities and Public Works. The results of the research (The impact of social capital in enhancing the psychological empowerment of workersApplied research in the Dire
... Show MoreThe study aimed to reveal the role of social capital represented by its dimensions (structural, relational, and cognitive) in strengthening the management of excellence in Azadi Hospital / Duhok. In order to reach the goal of the study, the study variables were highlighted in theory through framing concepts and literary contributions for researchers in this field, In the field, the questionnaire was used as a basic tool to collect data from the individuals in the research sample who were represented by officials and individuals working from administrators and technicians, as (120) forms were distributed to the respondents, and (110) were retrieved from them in a way that is valid for analysis. Several statistical methods have bee
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