يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
The Financial authority is considered as one of the most of benefited parts from financial statements which depends on it in process of accounting in taxes as basis to determine The Tax Base , but no confidence from financial authority part in objectivity of income financial information in them for many of limited companies led to no dependence on them to specify taxation contain & dependence on yearly regulations that issued them. To enhance the confidence of financial authority to these lists must meet its requirements, because the menus Fulfill the requirements of the financial authority increases the confidence in these statements and therefore reliable in determining the tax base. So this research aims to speci
... Show Morethis research paper aims at measuring and analyzing the influence of the stock exchange on the economic development in the Kingdom. This is done through comparing the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as a changeable factor affiliated with some independent variables in the KSA stock exchange. These variables are (All Share Index {TASI}, Market Value, Trade Volume Index, number of companies and number of shares). The study covers the period from 2003 to 2017 and adapts the measuring method in analyzing this relation using the Multiple Linear Regression (Stepwise) and (SPSS). The study affirmed the validity of the
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The economic entities view about human resources has been changed from traditional view based on the resources as one of production factors required for achieving the activities that lead to create products in turn for financial substitute embodied in wages, toward contemporary view consider human resources the most important richest investments, a real source for continuing, developing, and achieving competitive advantage for the entity.
From that point, this research dealt with studying the subject of disclosing investment information of human resources in the financial reports of Iraqi economic entities. The research ended with stating a suggestive model for the
... Show MoreThe research dealt with the case stock repurchase policy of Emaar Real Estate Company one of listed companies in Dubai Stock exchange. The research has launched from the cognitive dimensions of repurchasing policy which took great concern in the literatures of financial management, and also this policy became as substitute for distributing the monitory profit in the last three decades in the international financial markets, but it did not get any importance in the Arab Markets such as that of the Arab Gulf in addition to the Iraqi Stock Exchange.
The research summarized a set of conclusions, the most important one was the consistence of analysis result with the test of the major two hypotheses (The first
... Show MoreReceipt date: 12/28/2020 accepted date: 20/1/2021 Publication date: 12/31/2021
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Russia has emerged as a rising and influential power in the international arena, especially with Vladimir Putin's assumption of power and his desire for the rise of Russia and the end of the "unipolarism" represented by the hegemony of the United States of
... Show MoreForeign direct investment has seen increasing interest worldwide, especially in developing economies. However, statistics have shown that Yemen received fluctuating FDI inflows during the period under study. Against this background, this research seeks to determine the relationship and impact of interest rates on FDI flows. The study also found other determinants that greatly affected FDI inflows in Yemen for the period 1990-2018. Study data collected from the World Bank and International Monetary Fund databases. It also ensured that the time series were made balanced and interconnected, and then the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag method used in the analysis. The results showed that the interest rates and
... Show MoreWith a great diversity in the curriculum contemporary monetary and visions, and development that hit the graphic design field, it has become imperative for the workers in the contemporary design research and investigation in accordance with the intellectual treatises and methods of modern criticism, because the work design requires the designer and recipient both know the mechanics of tibographic text analysis in a heavy world of texts and images varied vocabulary and graphics, and designer on before anyone else manages the process of analysis to know what you offer others of shipments visual often of oriented intended from behind, what is meant, in the midst of this world, the curriculum Alsemiae directly overlap with such diverse offer
... Show MoreThis study aims to discuss the projects of poultry in Wasit province in 2013 and geographical distribution according to the type and contrast on the level of administrative units representing Districts and The reasons for this discrepancy, as well as knowledge of the factors affecting the distribution by the analysis and reasoning and description This study divided to the four themes, The first of the statement of nutritional importance and economic Poultry focused on the importance of various poultry products, The second one shows the relative position of the province of Wasit between the provinces of Iraq in poultry and production of eggs and meat farming projects, and then followed by the third one (theme) as it ensures the geographic
... Show MoreIn this paper we will explain ,how use Bayesian procedure in analysis multiple linear regression model with missing data in variables X's as the new method suggest , and explain some of missing Patterns under missing mechanism , missing complete at random MCAR and compare Bayesian estimator with complete case estimator by use simulation procedure .
In light of the limited sources of funding suffered by the Iraqi economy, it highlights the importance of enhancing the efficiency of public expenditure, and if the measurement of the efficiency of public expenditure and identify benchmarks first step of promoting efficiency, the adoption of scientific methods of analysis imperative in promoting the efficiency. Under this framework, the focus was on the methodologies used to measure the efficiency of public spending and supply analysis with trying statement strengths and weaknesses, and make use of it in the measurement of the efficiency of public spending in the Iraqi economy. As well as devise measurable indicators take into account the specificity of the Iraqi economy and the
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