يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
Abstract
The economic entities view about human resources has been changed from traditional view based on the resources as one of production factors required for achieving the activities that lead to create products in turn for financial substitute embodied in wages, toward contemporary view consider human resources the most important richest investments, a real source for continuing, developing, and achieving competitive advantage for the entity.
From that point, this research dealt with studying the subject of disclosing investment information of human resources in the financial reports of Iraqi economic entities. The research ended with stating a suggestive model for the
... Show MoreThe research dealt with the case stock repurchase policy of Emaar Real Estate Company one of listed companies in Dubai Stock exchange. The research has launched from the cognitive dimensions of repurchasing policy which took great concern in the literatures of financial management, and also this policy became as substitute for distributing the monitory profit in the last three decades in the international financial markets, but it did not get any importance in the Arab Markets such as that of the Arab Gulf in addition to the Iraqi Stock Exchange.
The research summarized a set of conclusions, the most important one was the consistence of analysis result with the test of the major two hypotheses (The first
... Show Moreشهد العصر الحالي سرعة فائقة في انتاج وسائل الاتصال لاسيما في حقل الاتصال الاليكتروني وتوضح ذلك عبر الاندماج بين ظاهرة الكم الهائل من المعلومات وتعدد الوسائل الاتصالية وذلك لتحقيق الهدف المنشود لبث الرسالة الاتصالية الا وهو التفاعل من اجل التأثير في الفرد ومن ثم المجتمع ككل , فيما اضحت العلاقات العامة احد العوامل المؤثرة في عملية التغيير الاجتماعي بما تستند اليه من ممارسات تضعها في اطار الوظائف المجتمعية ال
... Show MoreThe research aims to determine the factors affecting the woman’s use of electronic marketing in social networking sites, and to know the extent of the sample’s use of social networking sites for electronic shopping purposes. The research tool used the questionnaire form that was designed in its final form after presenting it to the arbitrators and it included a set of questions and a five-Likert scale, and used the spss statistical program to perform the statistical operations that were laid out in tables showing the frequencies, percentages and percentages Salary, mean, standard deviation, and correlation using the Spearman correlation coefficient, the Ka2 square test, the F test, the Alpha Cronbach test, and arrived at Searching to
... Show MoreAdolescence important and sensitive stage in social terms, being a stage where learns teenager bear social responsibilities and composition of their ideas about family life, as well as it is the stage where the teenager looking to himself for an important place in the community to become independent socially people, so it highlights the role of Social Work to do better effort and I believe him in order to prepare for the adolescent stage of adolescence and help him overcome the problems so that makes it adapts to the society in which he lives
Most statistical research generally relies on the study of the behaviour of different phenomena during specific time periods and the use of the results of these studies in the development of appropriate recommendations and decision-making and for the purpose of statistical inference on the parameters of the statistical distribution of life times in The technical staff of most of the manufacturers in the research units of these companies deals with censored data, the main objective of the study of survival is the need to provide information that is the basis for decision making and must clarify the problem and then the goals and limitations of this study and that It may have different possibilities to perform the
... Show MoreIn light of the limited sources of funding suffered by the Iraqi economy, it highlights the importance of enhancing the efficiency of public expenditure, and if the measurement of the efficiency of public expenditure and identify benchmarks first step of promoting efficiency, the adoption of scientific methods of analysis imperative in promoting the efficiency. Under this framework, the focus was on the methodologies used to measure the efficiency of public spending and supply analysis with trying statement strengths and weaknesses, and make use of it in the measurement of the efficiency of public spending in the Iraqi economy. As well as devise measurable indicators take into account the specificity of the Iraqi economy and the
... Show MoreThe Developing economies of countries have witnessed essential changes to words the development of tourism industry in the 21st century . in addition to adopting same of policies and strategies to grow up with the tourism sector to make it one of the important economic sector to compete the tourist cal developments in the wear .
As for the tourism sector in Iraq ,it's still afresh one , has many of elements which can be in vested ,needs a wide strategies of tourist cal in statutes and variety completive services and change of success for the locale and forgin investor ,the essential aim after this research is to prompt the national economic through the tourism industry and making concisen
... Show MoreThis study focuses on the basics of cultivation and production of the Wheat Crop in
Wasit Province ; in order to reveal the reality of the geographical distribution of its cultivation
and production.
Wheat is the most important field crops cultivated in Wasit province, as it has vast
possibilities for expansion in growing and production, in which agriculture conducted in a
year and left in other , then changing this method would increase cultivated area of it to nearly
doubled, as well as the possibility of increasing average yields in Donam by using improved
seeds, fertilizer, with the availability of water lever machines, especially wheat is grown in
areas of rivers abutment.
The study showed the spread of th
Receipt date: 12/28/2020 accepted date: 20/1/2021 Publication date: 12/31/2021
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Russia has emerged as a rising and influential power in the international arena, especially with Vladimir Putin's assumption of power and his desire for the rise of Russia and the end of the "unipolarism" represented by the hegemony of the United States of
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