ان تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اهم القضايا التي تواجهها الدولة خصوصا الدولة النفطية لاعتمادها بشكل شبة التام على العوائد النفطية وهذا يؤدي الى تقلب حجم الايراد العام (انخفاض وارتفاع) مما يؤثر على الاستدامة المالية بالإضافة الى ارتفاع حجم الانفاق العام اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية , اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق العام والايراد العام) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات والايرادات خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
تتطلب عملية التنمية الاقتصـادية في الدول النامية مبالغ كبيرة من رؤوس الأمـوال اللازمة لتنفيذ البرامج والخطط الاقتصادية، ولما كانت الاسـتثمارات التي تنفذها هذه الدول خلال حقبة معينة، تزيد على ما تم تحقيقه من موارد مالية محلية، فلابد أنْ يمول الفرق من خلال انسياب صافٍ لرأس المال الأجنبي (قروض ومساعدات) إلى الداخل خلال المدة نفسها، لغـرض سَدّ الفجوة في المـوارد المحلية المعدة للاسـتثمار، وعانت بعض د
... Show MoreResearch is aimed at defining the risks that the sales activity of the General Company for Leather Industries about a special, then diagnose these risks, through a set of indicators, which indicate its existence and try to overcome them, and minimizing the negative effects on those activities.
The research found some conclusions, which emphasizes that the General Company for Leather Industries, suffer from a lack of profit, and a large decrease in sales; a result of absence of demand on its products and rising cost of the expenses to income ratio of, which was reflected in the cost per unit produced. Also the conclusions shown that the number of sales outlets for the company to cover the geographical area is not enough, in spite
... Show MoreThe flexibility of interaction between the movement of macroeconomic variables that affect and are affected by the balance of payments, especially the movement of the current account, implies a perception of the maturity of economic development and what the theory assumes from the launch of a wide range of economic movement that varies in the degree of its influence according to the level of economic development and the vitality of the internal/external overlap relations through the assumed response to the movement of the macroeconomic variables. On this basis, it is possible to estimate the soundness and rationality of the economic decision taken that takes into account the required reciprocal repercussions between the current a
... Show MoreThe process of transformation from the central economy to a free economy requires restructuring the economy according to a new economic philosophy that relies on activating the role of private economic activity in which private and medium-sized institutions occupy an essential axis for their active role in the economies of all countries, especially those countries that have directed towards the market mechanism and sector leadership. The special process of economic development and the role that commercial banks can play in advancing the financing of these projects by establishing specialized business incubators for financing.
What encouraged countries to pay attention to these institutions is the ease of
... Show MoreThe performa of evaluation process is a process that should be carried out by all industrial management in order to stand on aspects of development or underdevelopment of the various departments and activities in its industrial project for the purpose of identifying obstacles and find out the causes and then avoid them quickly. And intended to rectify the performance evaluation of the activities of industrial project or economic union by measuring the results achieved within a specific operational process and compare it to what is already targeted, and often the time for comparison of one year.
The process of performance evaluation depends upon several criteria and indicators within the
... Show MoreThe study investigates the relationship between the volatility of the Iraqi Stock Exchange Index (ISX), and the volatility of global oil prices benchmarks, Brent and West Intermediate Texas (WTI), in additional to the Iraqi Oil, Basra Crude Light (BSL) which represents the most exported Iraqi oil and the major influential factor on the Iraqi governmental revenues. Using monthly data covering the period: 1/2005-12/1205, econometrical and technical tools represented by Co-incretion, Vector Error Correction Model – VECM, Granger Causality, and Bollinger band were employed in order to explore the relationship between the variables.
The econometric analysis revealed the impact of the oil prices volatility on
... Show MoreThe aim of the research is to measure the change in the impact of the factors of the Corona pandemic on psychological sensitivity and COVID-19 phobia in a sample of Bisha University students and to detect the differences in the phobia (phobia) Covid-19 among the sample members in the measurement before the ban and after the ban was opened, in addition to the differences in psychological sensitivity of The sample has between sizes before and after the spread of the Corona pandemic, as well as the differences in them according to the gender variable (male, female). The researcher relied on the comparative approach. The scale of psychological sensitivity and COVID-19 phobia was applied to a sample of (62) male and female respondents.
... Show MoreThis century is witnessing changes in various fields,which have become a challenge to the enterprises in the contemporary business environment, the most important of which is the importance of measurement and disclosure of the role of knowledge capital in the transition to the knowledge economy, which is no longer the land and labor and physical capital resources the basic. Knowledge-based capital has emerged that provides the enterprise with an area of excellence and enhances its position to achieve competitive advantage. The research tackled the concept, objectives, components and importance of knowledge capital, which is fundamental in knowledge management, creating value added and enhancing competitiveness, as well as an
... Show Moreيهدف البحث الى قياس مدى التطبيق والتبني للقيادة الملهمة في المنظمات العامة، وقد اشتقت مشكلة البحث النظرية من وجود فجوة معرفية وذلك لقلة الدراسات والبحوث التي تناولت متغير البحث بأبعاده (الرؤية المستقبلية، الثقة بالنفس، تمكين العاملين، ادارة التغيير)، واعتمد البحث المنهج التحليلي عن طريق استعمال الاستبانة في المنظمة التي تم اختيارها وذلك لكونها تعد من المنظمات الاساسية في تقديم الخدمات التعليمية المهمة في
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the Objective of study is to measure the quality of medical service level, in the Iraq public hospitals ,presented by special words ,private hospitals, and compare between them, by knowing the level of recipients satisfaction of medical service for all dimensions of quality service, and then measuring satisfaction with the quality of medical service as a whole for both of them, which have been prepared in questionnaire form, included two main directions, first to determine the level of satisfaction when, recipients of medical service is not dimensions quality of service in accordance with the Scale Servqual by (Parasurman et .al 1988), consisting of five di
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