ان تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اهم القضايا التي تواجهها الدولة خصوصا الدولة النفطية لاعتمادها بشكل شبة التام على العوائد النفطية وهذا يؤدي الى تقلب حجم الايراد العام (انخفاض وارتفاع) مما يؤثر على الاستدامة المالية بالإضافة الى ارتفاع حجم الانفاق العام اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية , اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق العام والايراد العام) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات والايرادات خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
The study investigates the relationship between the volatility of the Iraqi Stock Exchange Index (ISX), and the volatility of global oil prices benchmarks, Brent and West Intermediate Texas (WTI), in additional to the Iraqi Oil, Basra Crude Light (BSL) which represents the most exported Iraqi oil and the major influential factor on the Iraqi governmental revenues. Using monthly data covering the period: 1/2005-12/1205, econometrical and technical tools represented by Co-incretion, Vector Error Correction Model – VECM, Granger Causality, and Bollinger band were employed in order to explore the relationship between the variables.
The econometric analysis revealed the impact of the oil prices volatility on
... Show MoreThis study measures the indicators of social and environmental performance of the contents of the administration's prepared reports on its social and environmental performance by comparing the actual performance with the indicators set within the standards of the Global Reports Initiative (GRI), In preparing this research, the researchers relied on studying the criteria of the Global Reporting Initiative, which aims to achieve a high level of performance disclosure under sustainability, In light of contemporary global trends towards achieving sustainable development and its disclosure and the orientations of economic institutions and units in different countries towards emphasizing the extent of commitment during practicing its a
... Show MoreThis study seeks to identify the possibility of achieving the property of faithful representation of accounting information and measure it by using the standard approach based on mathematical and statistical equations by comparing two financial periods before and after the application of (IFRS-15) Revenue from contracts with customers, during the period. (2014-2018), for the financial statements of the mixed joint stock companies listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange, which is one of the main pillars of the economic structure of the country, as a joint investment between the state and the private sector, and has importance in many aspects, including support for projects of public companies, S Absorption and employment of labor, as well as ra
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The distribution or retention of profits is the third decision among financial management decisions in terms of priority, whether at the level of theory or practice, as the issue of distribution or retention is multi-party in terms of influence and impact, as determining the optimal percentage for each component is still the subject of intellectual debate because these decisions are linked to the future of the organization and several considerations, The research focus on the nature of the policies followed by the Iraqi banking sector As the sample chosen by the intentional sampling method was represented by the Commercial Bank of
... Show MoreFinancial Reporting Quality (FRQ) is one of the important topics in the financial management, it has the impact on the users decisions, it also effect on many other variables i.e dividend, therefore. This paper aims to provide a diameter of Financial Reporting Quality (FRQ) level for the companies listed on the Iraqi Stock Exchange. It also tries to show the FRQ effects on the dividend policy. The study sample was 13 listed companies in the Iraqi Stock Exchange for the period from 2007 to 2011. Kothari et al. 2005 model has been used to measure the FRQ, on the other hand the common stock share of the dividend was used to measure the dividend.
Many conclusions have been driven by the research
... Show MoreThe investment decision, a critical decision for each investor as it involves risks and uncertain returns, so investors should avoid cases of uncertainty associated with the final decisions they are involved, and the problem of research in individual differences and differences in the behavior of individual investors and reflect the impact of this investment decision in the Iraqi market for securities. Therefore, the research aims to understand and analyze the impact of determinants of investor behavior as an independent variable in investment decision-making as a dependent variable in the Iraqi market for securities, and the research started from two main hypotheses to explore the influence and correlation between research varia
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The research aims to shed light on the extent to which the practices of performance management in achieving organizational excellence in one of the formations and the Ministry of Finance (GCT). The importance of the selection of these organizations is that they occupies a large and exceptional importance in the national economy through income redistribution add it to cover a large part of the state budget revenues, these organizations possess functionally diverse cadre of them pregnant initial certification and other senior and he fairly stable To meet this target, and on the basis of the data search exploratory researcher built model hypothesis for the search included variable impressionist and
... Show MoreResearch includes three axes, the first is the average estimate time of achievement (day) to work oversight, to five supervisory departments in the Office of Financial Supervision Federal and then choose the three control outputs and at the level of each of the five departments above, and after analyzing the data statistically back to us that the distribution of the times of achievement It is the exponential distribution (Exponential Distribution) a parameter (q), and the distribution of normal (Normal Distribution) with two parameters (μ, σ2), and introduced four methods of parameter estimation (q) as well as four modalities parameter to estimate (
... Show MoreThe dividends is one of difficult and important decisions taken by the administration in the economic units, because this decision has a direct impact on the investor and economic unit, so the main objective of any investor is achieve earnings, as well as information borne by dividends about the earnings quality of the economic unit and the level and efficiency of management to achieving earnings.
The research aims at explaining the effect of the dividends policy on the earnings quality in the companies listed in the Iraq Stock Exchange. The Miller model was used to measu
... Show MoreSAIs has a pivotal role in enhancing public sector performance through its quest to achieve the greatest possible efficiency and effectiveness in its, so it has to adopt applied framework for abilities building, the research aims to shed light on the role of SAIs and the nature of their work, and the definition for its abilities building, and to prepare a proposal for abilities building applied to work with the SAI in the Republic of Iraq (of the Federal Board of Supreme Audit ),the Researchers reached conclusions, namely: abilities building is the outcome of the interaction between the reality of all of the employees of the SAI and the institution itself and the environment and the specific requirements of the de
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