ان تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اهم القضايا التي تواجهها الدولة خصوصا الدولة النفطية لاعتمادها بشكل شبة التام على العوائد النفطية وهذا يؤدي الى تقلب حجم الايراد العام (انخفاض وارتفاع) مما يؤثر على الاستدامة المالية بالإضافة الى ارتفاع حجم الانفاق العام اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية , اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق العام والايراد العام) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات والايرادات خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
The analysis of the orientations of Iraqi art commodification contributed to the discovery of deliberation, which was founded in the deliberative discourse in the trends towards commodification in the Iraqi art, since the important transformations in social structures and relations produced a dictionary with new vocabulary and tools that replaced the traditions and norms that have been in circulation for a century. Deliberation and commodification have become more prevalent in the mechanics and trends of the art where the pace of change is becoming increasingly frantic towards the market. The general market for art constitutes one of the most effective phenomena within contemporary art, that there has been a proliferation of sales auctio
... Show More
Abstract
Oil is the most important natural resources in Iraq and represents the goal to others as well as Iraqi people. It is gift from God to all Iraqi people now and future. So we must maintain it and invest its revenue that achieve development in country and ensure the next generations' rights in it without external costs or negative externalities from extracted and invested it.
The most problems that we attempt to solve by this research are the exhausted, environmental degradation and theft from next generation that produced with oil contracts between Iraq and foreign companies. From here was th
... Show MoreThe aim of the research is to identify the educational and psychological effects of the positive and negative aspects of using social networking websites. The researcher administered a number of questions to (250) users of different types of social networking websites. He analyzed his research results and obtained a number of results. The research has reached a number of recommendations and suggestion: Regulating the use of social media. Monitoring the parents of the sites used by children in a way that they do not feel they are observers. It is necessary to devote an hour daily to show the importance of real social life for children other than using social media. It is necessary to show the importance of choosing friends who hav
... Show MoreThe tax exemption, whether wholly or partially, and for an unlimited duration of the investment or for a limited period of few years, is one of the encouraging things to the flow of foreign capital. And if necessary, impose tax on the profits of the invested capital, the promotion requires that not be discriminatory taxes or payments in the amount of money with the need to avoid double taxation. The tax exemption is granted by the government and the feature according to the law of a natural person or legal entity seeking from the government purports to achieve a set of political goals, economic and social development. The reduction of taxes or grants partial exemption is one of the factors that encourage attract of direct foreign i
... Show MoreSinging has significant importance being a major basis for the expressive and cultural production of the societies and a real companion that reflects their artistic career and is strongly connected to the reality of the peoples and the production of the individuals, who are geniuses of arts and culture.
Rural singing represents one of the most well-known artistic singing styles in Iraq, which truly embodied the Iraqi national identity. However, it remained confined to the countryside and did not spread due to the lack of mass media and the recording technologies at that time. It has been pure virgin singing art. The theoretical framework is divided into three axes:
• The Iraqi singing heritage in the twentieth century, a hi
... Show MoreThe concept of narration has taken an aesthetic field farther than the primitive human act which was imposed by the necessities of social communication in an ancient historical period. The research addressed the research problem. The importance of the research lies in connecting the concept of narration with the theatre directing elements. The research aims at discovering the narration fields in the theatre directing represented by the perceived videos, audios and motions. The research time limit was (2014). The theoretical framework is divided into three chapters:
The first chapter (the concept of narration in literature and criticism), the second addressed
... Show Moreيعد شعر المنفى احد اهم روافد الادب المعاصر فهو يعكس الإبداع الشعري الحقيقي للشاعر المنفي، ويعكس في الوقت ذاته الحنين والألم الذي يعاني منه بسبب البعد عن وطنه. ومن ناحية أخرى، يصور شعر المنفى حالة المقاومة والنضال التي يختزنها الشاعر . نتناول في هذا البحث م وضوع شعر المنفى عند شاعرين منفيين لم يلتقيا في بلد واحد ولم يتبنيا ثقافة فكرية مشتركة, إلا أن الشاعرين تحملا نفس مرارة المنفى التي عبرا عنها بشكل واضح في شعر
... Show MoreThis research deals with the study of the relationship between the success factors as the independent variable and product strategies as the dependent variable , has reacted to these variables to form the frame , which is the research which centered research problem about the extent to which industrial companies the vision and knowledge of Muslim women survive and develop in the business market , which can be expressed about the extent of awareness of corporate success factors and the use of product strategies and what the relationship between the factors and strategies , while expressing the importance of research to make the focus on the product occupies a paramount importance in the industrial sector companies in relation to t
... Show MoreThe features of the actor's performance in the ritual theater are of great importance and chief in theatrical work since the first emergence of the theater, as the features of the performance were embodied in all Iraqi theatrical performances, but they took personal privacy in some ritual performances because of their differences and similarities between the ritual theatrical performance and the ritual show Al-Khalis, who wanted the researcher to know the similarities and differences in the features of the ritual performance and in the theatrical performance, despite the many transformations that occurred in the theater and affected the features of the performance, but it remained an important and attractive link between the recipient, t
... Show More