The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
The logistic regression model regarded as the important regression Models ,where of the most interesting subjects in recent studies due to taking character more advanced in the process of statistical analysis .
The ordinary estimating methods is failed in dealing with data that consist of the presence of outlier values and hence on the absence of such that have undesirable effect on the result. &nbs
... Show MoreThis paper presents a robust algorithm for the assessment of risk priority for medical equipment based on the calculation of static and dynamic risk factors and Kohnen Self Organization Maps (SOM). Four risk parameters have been calculated for 345 medical devices in two general hospitals in Baghdad. Static risk factor components (equipment function and physical risk) and dynamics risk components (maintenance requirements and risk points) have been calculated. These risk components are used as an input to the unsupervised Kohonen self organization maps. The accuracy of the network was found to be equal to 98% for the proposed system. We conclude that the proposed model gives fast and accurate assessment for risk priority and it works as p
... Show MoreIn this study water quality was indicated in terms of Water Quality Index that was determined through summarizing multiple parameters of water test results. This index offers a useful representation of the overall quality of water for public or any intended use as well as indicating pollution, water quality management and decision making. The application of Water Quality Index (WQI) with sixteen physicochemical water quality parameters was performed to evaluate the quality of Tigris River water for drinking usage. This was done by subjecting the water samples collected from eight stations in Baghdad city during the period 2004-2010 to comprehensive physicochemical analysis. The sixteen physicochemical parameters included: Turbidity,
... Show MoreIn this study water quality was indicated in terms of Water Quality Index that was determined through summarizing multiple parameters of water test results. This index offers a useful representation of the overall quality of water for public or any intended use as well as indicating pollution, which are useful in water quality management and decision making. The application of Water Quality Index (WQI) with ten physicochemical water quality parameters was performed to evaluate the quality of Euphrates River water for drinking usage. This was done by subjecting the water samples collected from seven stations within Al-Anbar province during the period 2004-2010 to comprehensive physicochemical analysis. The ten physicochemical parame
... Show MoreIn this study water quality was indicated in terms of Water Quality Index that was determined through summarizing multiple parameters of water test results. This index offers a useful representation of the overall quality of water for public or any intended use as well as indicating pollution, water quality management and decision making. The application of Water Quality Index
(WQI) with sixteen physicochemical water quality parameters was performed to evaluate the quality of Tigris River water for drinking usage. This was done by subjecting the water samples collected from eight stations in Baghdad city during the period 2004-2010 to comprehensive physicochemical analysis. The sixteen physicochemical parameters included: Turbidity, A
In this study water quality was indicated in terms of Water Quality Index that was determined through summarizing multiple parameters of water test results. This index offers a useful representation of the overall quality of water for public or any intended
use as well as indicating pollution, which are useful in water quality management and decision making. The application of Water Quality Index (WQI) with ten physicochemical water quality parameters was performed to evaluate the quality of Euphrates River water for drinking usage. This was done by subjecting the water samples collected from seven stations within Al-Anbar province during the period 2004-2010 to comprehensive physicochemical analysis. The ten physicochemical paramete
In this article, we developed a new loss function, as the simplification of linear exponential loss function (LINEX) by weighting LINEX function. We derive a scale parameter, reliability and the hazard functions in accordance with upper record values of the Lomax distribution (LD). To study a small sample behavior performance of the proposed loss function using a Monte Carlo simulation, we make a comparison among maximum likelihood estimator, Bayesian estimator by means of LINEX loss function and Bayesian estimator using square error loss (SE) function. The consequences have shown that a modified method is the finest for valuing a scale parameter, reliability and hazard functions.
This research is a continued efforts for a project on the fire tube boiler control for Al Rasheed edible oil factory. The aim is to enhance the control system with new integral control one. A functional blocks diagram (FBD) was built and simulated. With Schneider smart relays, FBD differs than ladder logic programming in which the PID option is active. An extensive work was done to understand the operation sequence, emergency shutdown, and faults causing the trips. A control program was designed to control logical sequence of operation. Furthermore temperature is controlled via cascade control with fuel and air controllers. The temperature controller output is send as remote set point to the fuel controller in a serial cascade manner. The f
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