The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
This article reports the first record of Aenasius arizonensis (Girault, 1915) (Hymenoptera, Encyrtidae) parasitizing the recently introduced species of cotton mealybug, Phenacoccus solenopsis Tinsly (Hemiptera, Psedococcidae) infesting Lantana camara L. (Verbeneceae) as well as other ornamental plants in Baghdad province, Iraq. A short morphological description is also presented.
In this research, main types of optical coatings are presented which are used as covers for solar cells, these coatings are reflect the infrared (heat) from the solar cell to increase the efficiency of the cell (because the cell’s efficiency is inversely proportional to the heat), then the theoretical and mathematical description of these optical coatings are presented, and an optical design is designed to meet this objective, its optical transmittance was calculated using (MATLAB R2008a) and (Open Filters 1.0.2) programs
The aim of this study was to evaluate the risk factors that influence the perforation, regardless of the presence of H. pylori infection, in a sample of Iraqi patients with peptic ulcers, admitted to Al-Kindy Teaching Hospital. A total of 90 patients who had perforated peptic ulcer participated in this study. The diagnosis was based on history, clinical examination, laboratory and radiological investigations and was confirmed intraoperatively. A number of probable risk factors for perforation were investigated. Eighty participants were males and 10 were females (male to female ratio 8:1). About 42.2% of patients were in their fifth decade of life. Forty-nine (54.4%) patients were asymptomatic be
Experimental tests were carried to control lost circulation in the Khabaz oil field using different types of LCMs including Nano-materials. A closed-loop circulation system was built to simulate the process of lost circulation into formations. Two dolomite plugs were used from different depths of the formation of Azkand in Khabaz oil field. The experimentations were carried out to study the effect of different types of LCMs, cross-linked copolymer (FLOSORB CE 300 S), SiO2 NP, and Fe2O3 NP, on mud volume losses as a function of time.
The rheological measurements of the nanoparticles-reference mud system showed that both of the SiO2 NP and Fe2O3 NP w
... Show MoreThe high viscosity of heavy oil is a crucial factor that strongly affects its up-stream recovering, down-stream surface transporting and refining processes. Economical methods for recovering the heavy oil and reducing is very important and related to capital and/or operating cost. This research studies the treatment of Iraqi heavy crude oil, which characterize with high viscosity and low API which makes transportation of heavy crude oil a difficult mission, needs for treatment to reduce viscosity for facilitating transportation and processing. Iraqi heavy crude oil was used Sharqi Baghdad, which obtained from Baghdad east oil fields with API 22.2º.Many kinds of additives were used to reduce the viscosity, experiments were performed o
... Show MoreAn investigation was conducted for the improvement of viscosity index of a lubricating oil fraction (SAE – 30) obtained from vacuum distillation unit of lube oil plant of Daura Refinery, using solvent extraction process. In this study two type of extraction solvents were used to extract the undesirable materials which reduce the viscosity index of raw lubricating oil fraction, the first solvent was furfural which is un use today in the Iraqi refineries and the second was NMP (N-methyl, 2, pyrrolidone) which is used for the first time in this work to extract the lubricating oil fraction produced from Iraqi crude oils. The studied effecting variables of extraction are extraction temperature range from 70 to 110 oC for furfural and NMP ex
... Show MoreEmpirical equation has been presented to predict the optimum hydrodynamic
pressure gradient with optimum mud flow rate (one equation) of five Iraqi oil wells
to obtain the optimum carrying capacity of the drilling fluid ( optimum transport
cuttings from the hole to the surface through the annulus).
This equation is a function of mud flow rate, mud density and penetration
rate without using any charts or graphs.
The correlation coefficient accuracy is more than 0.9999.
The efficiency of attapulgite liners as anti-seepage for crude oil is examined. Consideration is given to the potential use of raw attapulgite and mixture attapulgite with prairie hay and coconut husk as liners to prevent crude oil seepage. Attapulgite clay used in this study was brought from Injana formation /Western Desert of Iraq. Two types of Crude oil brought from Iraqi oil fields were used in experiments; heavy crude oil from East-Baghdad oil field and light crude oil from Nassiriya oil field. Initially the basic properties of attapulgite and crude oils were determined. The attapulgite clay was subjected to mineralogical, chemical and scanning electron microscope analyses. Raw Attapulgite 150µm, 75µm, and 53µm were tested
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