Survival analysis is widely applied to data that described by the length of time until the occurrence of an event under interest such as death or other important events. The purpose of this paper is to use the dynamic methodology which provides a flexible method, especially in the analysis of discrete survival time, to estimate the effect of covariate variables through time in the survival analysis on dialysis patients with kidney failure until death occurs. Where the estimations process is completely based on the Bayes approach by using two estimation methods: the maximum A Posterior (MAP) involved with Iteratively Weighted Kalman Filter Smoothing (IWKFS) and in combination with the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. While the other method was represented by the Hybrid Markov Chain Monte Carlo method (HMCMC). Moreover, two hazard function models were considered in the comparison: the Logistic model and the discrete Cox model. Two criteria were used for comparisons Average Mean Square Error: AMSE and Cross Entropy Error: CEE. All these four combinations of methods were clarified via the discussion of the numerical results with their explanations. It can be noticed the superiority of HMCMC method through the two hazard models.
The analysis of survival and reliability considered of topics and methods of vital statistics at the present time because of their importance in the various demographical, medical, industrial and engineering fields. This research focused generate random data for samples from the probability distribution Generalized Gamma: GG, known as: "Inverse Transformation" Method: ITM, which includes the distribution cycle integration function incomplete Gamma integration making it more difficult classical estimation so will be the need to illustration to the method of numerical approximation and then appreciation of the function of survival function. It was estimated survival function by simulation the way "Monte Carlo". The Entropy method used for the
... Show MoreStatic and dynamic circumstances confirm that seepage is water movement through the earth dam’s embankment’s voids from upstream to downstream. Seepage is a quantity of fluid that has seeped through the permeable material or as the infiltration downward and lateral movement of water into soil or substrata from a source of supply such as a reservoir of a dam. In case of an earthquake strikes saturated soils, the water-filled pore spaces collapse, reducing the soil’s overall volume. The water pressure between individual soil grains is increased as a result of this action, and the grains can then move freely in the watery matrix. This reduces the soil’s resistance to shear str
Horizontal wells have revolutionized hydrocarbon production by enhancing recovery efficiency and reducing environmental impact. This paper presents an enhanced Black Oil Model simulator, written in Visual Basic, for three-dimensional two-phase (oil and water) flow through porous media. Unlike most existing tools, this simulator is customized for horizontal well modeling and calibrated using extensive historical data from the South Rumaila Oilfield, Iraq. The simulator first achieves a strong match with historical pressure data (1954–2004) using vertical wells, with an average deviation of less than 5% from observed pressures, and is then applied to forecast the performance of hypothetical horizontal wells (2008–2011). The result
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This research deals with what so called concept of The Human Model and how Iraqi Media concerns of this concept practically as it plays a key role in attracting readers, on the first hand. On the second, it is important to shed light on the scientific desire of the Iraqi Media and how it deals with this contemporary trend especially in editorial media.
The importance of the research stems from the fact that it alerts to a new stream of modern trends in journalistic writing, according to many modern Arab and foreign media studies; and to the importance of employing human modeling in dealing with facts, events, issues and problems in various editorial arts within their effective influence in concilia
... Show MoreIt is often needed in demographic research to modern statistical tools are flexible and convenient to keep up with the type of data available in Iraq in terms of the passage of the country far from periods of war and economic sanctions and instability of the security for a period of time . So, This research aims to propose the use of style nonparametric splines as a substitute for some of the compounds of analysis within the model Lee-Carter your appreciation rate for fertility detailed variable response in Iraq than the period (1977 - 2011) , and then predict for the period (2012-2031). This goal was achieved using a style nonparametric decomposition of singular value vehicles using the main deltoid , and then estimate the effect of time-s
... Show MoreFluid-structure interaction method is performed to predict the dynamic characteristics of axial fan system. A fluid-structure interface physical environment method (monolithic method) is used to couple the fluid flow solver with the structural solver. The integration of the three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations is performed in the time Doman, simultaneously to the integration of the three dimensional structural model. The aerodynamic loads are transfer from the flow to structure and the coupling step is repeated within each time step, until the flow solution and the structural solution have converged to yield a coupled solution of the aeroelastic set of equations. Finite element method is applied to solve numerically
... Show MoreThe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the infection escalation around the globe encourage the implementation of the global protocol for standard care patients aiming to cease the infection spread. Evaluating the potency of these therapy courses has drawn particular attention in health practice. This observational study aimed to assess the efficacy of Remdesivir and Favipiravir drugs compared to the standard care patients in COVID-19 confirmed patients. One hundred twenty-seven patients showed the disease at different stages, and one hundred and fifty patients received only standard care as a control group were included in this study. Patients under the Remdesivir therapy protocol were (62.20%); meanwhile, there (30.71
... Show MoreThe national educational systems both in the Russian Federation and Iraq Republic have to adjust the training programs to duly prepare the pedagogical university students for the modern challenges and situations on the market of educational services. For success of the service, the education specialists have to fully mobilize their physical, mental and emotional resources and persistently advance their skills and knowledge using the relevant online education courses; practical research conferences; persistent self-education to master theoretical fundamentals of the modern physical education and sport service; and be active in trainings and competitions in their vocational individual game sports including badminton, table tennis and tennis.
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