Survival analysis is widely applied to data that described by the length of time until the occurrence of an event under interest such as death or other important events. The purpose of this paper is to use the dynamic methodology which provides a flexible method, especially in the analysis of discrete survival time, to estimate the effect of covariate variables through time in the survival analysis on dialysis patients with kidney failure until death occurs. Where the estimations process is completely based on the Bayes approach by using two estimation methods: the maximum A Posterior (MAP) involved with Iteratively Weighted Kalman Filter Smoothing (IWKFS) and in combination with the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. While the other method was represented by the Hybrid Markov Chain Monte Carlo method (HMCMC). Moreover, two hazard function models were considered in the comparison: the Logistic model and the discrete Cox model. Two criteria were used for comparisons Average Mean Square Error: AMSE and Cross Entropy Error: CEE. All these four combinations of methods were clarified via the discussion of the numerical results with their explanations. It can be noticed the superiority of HMCMC method through the two hazard models.
In this work, the switching nonlinear dynamics of a Fabry-Perot etalon are studied. The method used to complete the solution of the differential equations for the nonlinear medium. The Debye relaxation equations solved numerically to predict the behavior of the cavity for modulated input power. The response of the cavity filled with materials of different response time is depicted. For a material with a response time equal to = 50 ns, the cavity switches after about (100 ns). Notice that there is always a finite time delay before the cavity switches. The switch up time is much longer than the cavity build-up time of the corresponding linear cavity which was found to be of the order of a few round-trip ti
... Show MoreIn this work, an investigation for the dynamic analysis of thin composite cylindrical and spherical shells is presented. The analytical solution is based upon the higher order shear deformation theory of elastic shells from which the developed equations are derived to deal with orthotropic layers. This will cover the determination of the fundamental natural frequencies and mode shapes for simply supported composites cylindrical and spherical shells.
The analytical results obtained by using the derived equations were confirmed by the finite element technique using the well known Ansys package. The results have shown a good agreement with a maximum percentage of discrepancy, which gives a confidence o
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We have presented the distribution of the exponentiated expanded power function (EEPF) with four parameters, where this distribution was created by the exponentiated expanded method created by the scientist Gupta to expand the exponential distribution by adding a new shape parameter to the cumulative function of the distribution, resulting in a new distribution, and this method is characterized by obtaining a distribution that belongs for the exponential family. We also obtained a function of survival rate and failure rate for this distribution, where some mathematical properties were derived, then we used the method of maximum likelihood (ML) and method least squares developed (LSD)
... Show MoreWe have presented the distribution of the exponentiated expanded power function (EEPF) with four parameters, where this distribution was created by the exponentiated expanded method created by the scientist Gupta to expand the exponential distribution by adding a new shape parameter to the cumulative function of the distribution, resulting in a new distribution, and this method is characterized by obtaining a distribution that belongs for the exponential family. We also obtained a function of survival rate and failure rate for this distribution, where some mathematical properties were derived, then we used the method of maximum likelihood (ML) and method least squares developed (LSD) to estimate the parameters an
... Show MoreIn this paper, the Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) for Williamson fluid with varying temperature and concentration in an inclined channel with variable viscosity has been examined. The perturbation technique in terms of the Weissenberg number to obtain explicit forms for the velocity field has been used. All the solutions of physical parameters of the Darcy parameter , Reynolds number , Peclet number and Magnetic parameter are discussed under the different values as shown in plots.
The present study has examined the spatiotemporal varieties of the demographics of the Shatt Al-Arab River fishes and their relation to some ecological components. The aim is to forecast these groups in the unexplored parts of the waterway with an emphasis on environmental indices of diversity. Three sites in the river were selected as an observation and study of these species, which lasted from March 2019 to February 2020, the study dealt with factors affecting fishes, as Water Temperature (WT), Dissolved Oxygen (DO), Potential Hydrogen Ion (pH), Salinity (Sal), and Transparency (Tra). Gill nets, cast nets, hooks, and hand nets were adopted to collecting fish. The results indicated that the fish population comprises 60 species represent
... Show MoreThis paper deals with studying the effect of hole inclination angle on computing slip velocity and consequently its effect on lifting capacity. The study concentrates on selected vertical wells in Rumaila field, Southern Iraq. Different methods were used to calculate lifting capacity. Lifting capacity is the most important factor for successful drilling and which reflex on preventing hole problems and reduces drilling costs. Many factors affect computing lifting capacity, so hence the effect of hole inclination angle on lifting capacity will be shown in this study. A statistical approach was used to study the lifting capacity values which deal with the effect of hole
... Show MoreMammals are under threat worldwide due to deforestation, hunting, and other human activities. In Iraq, a total of 93 species of wild mammals have been recorded including species with global conservation concern. Bamo Mountain is situated within the Zagros Mountains in northern Iraq which is a suitable habitat for wild mammals. Due to scarcity of the field survey efforts and cryptic behavior, monitoring of the wild mammals fauna in Zagros Mountain seems challenging. Therefore, we used a camera trap which seems to be an ideal way to determine species diversity of wild mammals in Bamo Mountain. Moreover, interviews with local villagers were performed. The mammalian diversity of Bamo Mountain is not fully explored but seemed threatened by lo
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