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A modified time series model using conditional and unconditional estimations with applications to a real dataset
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Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 24 2023
Journal Name
Arab World English Journal
PRAGMATIC AWARENESS OF SPEECH ACTS, POLITENESS, AND GRICE MAXIMS OF IRAQI EFL POSTGRADUATE STUDENTS الوعي التداولي بأفعال الكلام والتأدب والاقوال المأثورة لطلبة الدراسات العليا العراقيين في اللغة الانجليزية كلغة اجنبية
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This study examines postgraduate students’ awareness of pragmatic aspects, including Grice Maxims, Politeness, and Direct and Indirect forms of speech. According to Paul Grice’s theory of implicature, which is considered one of the most important contributions to pragmatics, this paper discusses how postgraduate students can meet the cooperative principle when communicating effectively. It also outlines how does politeness principles influence obeying or violating the maxims and how is the use of direct or indirect forms of utterances prompted by politeness. Sixteen master’s students of Linguistics and Literature were asked to take a multiple-choice test. The test will be represented along with the interpretation of each optio

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2025
Journal Name
Open Veterinary Journal
<b>Antimicrobial susceptibility patterns of infective <i>Streptococci</i> recovered from local and imported mozzarella cheese from different markets in Baghdad</b>
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Background: This research identified Streptococci spp. depending on culture, biochemistry, the VITEK technique, ability to produce biofilms, and antibiotic resistance. Aim: The goal of this study was to perform microbiological procedures to evaluate the qualitative qualities of mozzarella cheese against infective Streptococci using microbiological care. Methods: Sixty (60) mozzarella cheese samples were brought from diverse markets in Baghdad from October 2023 to December 2023 at the Zoonoses Research Unit and Veterinary Public Health Department, Veterinary Medicine College, University of Baghdad. Culture of samples on agar (MacConkey and blood) and aerobically incubated at 37°C for 48 hours. Gram staining purified colonies to

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 29 2024
Journal Name
Eximia
The cognitive and educational importance of the academic teacher for developing the applied skills of third-stage female students in the subject of teaching methods from their point of view
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The research aimed to prepare a measure of the importance of enlightenment, academic education, and applied skills for third-stage female students, including teaching methods from their point of view/College of Education and Sports Sciences/University of Baghdad/Al-Jadriyah. The researchers used descriptive description in the comprehensive research procedures, an appropriate methodology in achieving the research objectives, sufficient for interpretations, how important is the academic teacher’s knowledge of teaching methods for student learning, what are the roles that the learners have acquired from the academic teacher. The scale of importance and horror consists of 15 items. The research population includes female students of t

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Publication Date
Wed May 01 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
Effect of Sulfur on Characterization of AgInSe<sub>1.8</sub>S<sub>0.2</sub> Thin Film and n-AgInSe<sub>1.8</sub>S<sub>0.2</sub> / p-Si Solar Cell
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Abstract Ternary Silver Indium selenide Sulfur AgInSe1.8S0.2 in pure form and with a 0.2 ratio of Sulfur were fabricated via thermal evaporation under vacuum 3*10-6 torr on glasses substrates with a thickness of (550) nm. These films were investigated to understand their structural, optical, and Hall Characteristics. X-ray diffraction analysis was employed to examine the impact of varying Sulfur ratios on the structural properties. The results revealed that the AgInSe1.8S0.2 thin films in their pure form and with a 0.2 Sulfur ratio, both at room temperature and after annealing at 500 K, exhibited a polycrystalline nature with a tetragonal structure and a predominant orientation along the (112) plane, indicating an enhanced de

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
Analysis of the symbolic images in the work of Mexican theater of: "all cats are brown," the writer Carlos Fuentes and "Palinuro on the stairs," the writer Fernando del Paso
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 This article briefly analyzing contemporary works appeared in theater writer from Latin America, which comes within the theme of "power." Latin American Literature, such as two-way extremely clear: the vanguard of social and attention, have arrived at certain moments to some extent be regarded as a two-way rival. That desire to participate in the revolution of expression and artistic significance, has appeared evident in the literature of Latin America in the late nineteenth century and ended in the third decade of the twentieth century. The writers that stage would prefer not to serve the objectives of the revolution of Arts own but the objectives of social and political revolution that stimulate the world. These acts were issued

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Success Of The Project Management In light of the Learning Organization Characteristics field reserche for the opinion of simple of worker at the State Commission For Road and Bridge
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Abstract                                                                                                                       &nbsp

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 03 2026
Journal Name
Journal Of Electrochemical Science And Engineering
Synergistic effects of NH&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;-MIL-101(Fe) metal-organic framework and Pd nanoparticles for sensitive determination of norepine­phrine in the presence of acetaminophen
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An electrochemical sensor based on an amino-functionalized iron NH2-MIL-101(Fe) metal-organic framework (MOF)/Pd nanoparticles (NPs) composite-modified screen-printed elec­trode (SPE) is prepared for the simultaneous determination of norepinephrine (NEPI) and acetaminophen (ACP). The NH2-MIL-101(Fe) MOF/Pd NPs/SPE electrochemical sensor shows a significant enhancement in the response peak current of NEPI, as compared to bare SPE. This suggests that the unique features of NH2-MIL-101(Fe) MOF/Pd NPs composite-mo­di­fied SPE improve the electro­catalytic oxidation of NEPI. Such a synergistic effect bet­ween NH2-MIL-101(Fe) MOF and Pd NPs results in a significant enhancement in the res­pon­se, where the MOF's high surface area co

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 01 2020
Journal Name
International Journal Of Pharmaceutical Research
Effectiveness of Self-Instructional Strategy and the Traditional Teaching Approach on Nursing Students&#39; Knowledge toward Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation at the College of Nursing in University of Baghdad: Randomized Comparative Trial
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MM ABDUL-WAHHAB, SA AHMED, International Journal of Pharmaceutical Research, 2020 - Cited by 2

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Evaluating The Performance of Public Companies in The Light of Financial Indicators Case study of the General Company for Drugs and Medical Supplies/ Samarra – Iraq For the period (2014-2019)
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The research aimed to evaluate the financial performance of the Public Company for the manufacture of medicines and medical supplies / Samarra - Iraq to know the strengths and weaknesses that affect its performance, as well as to compare its performance in the years between (2017-2019), which are characterized by security stability with its performance in previous years (2014 -2016) which is characterized by security instability, to assess the extent of its ability to achieve growth in performance, by answering the main question, what is the evaluation of the performance of the Public Company for the manufacture of medicines and medical supplies / Samarra - Iraq in the light of financial indicators?

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Crossref
Publication Date
Wed Jan 05 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Positive School Psychology
Influence Of Variance In Rest Interval For The Explosive Power Training For The Arms And Legs In The Light Of Some Biochemical Indicators For The Cellular Equilibrium Of The Volleyballers
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