Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.
The research is trying to identify the investment portfolio risks of the insurance company and their impact, on the Profitability ratios of the company, and whether the company's scientific methods followed in the measurement of these risks, and conducted research in the National Insurance Company. by relying on its annual budget as well as the annual reports, The search dealing with these data in theoretical and practical major premise to statistically significant between to investment portfolio risk and financial performance correlation and reach a set of conclusions and recommendations which are the following.
investments include many ri
... Show MoreThe relationship between the clinical singes and some of the hematological and biochemical values in 126 cases of local breed and Shammi breed goats (from both sexes) diagnosed as cases of malnutrition from 230 goats examined .The clinical examination include (beside the general inspection and case history) body temperature, respiratory and pulse rates, mucus membranes skin and coat. Examination of the blood samples included RBCs count, Hb concentration, PCV % and values of cupper, magnesium, phosphorus, and potassium. The results showed that the mean body temperature of these goats was lower than in normal goats, while the respiratory and pulse rates were higher .Examination of blood revealed decrease in the means of RBCs counts ,Hb con
... Show MoreResearch Summary
This research is an attempt to explain the Qur’anic verses of the vision in the practical divine vision on the Day of Resurrection, and the legal texts narrated from the Companions regarding the vision of the Prophet, may God’s prayers and peace be upon him, regarding the vision of the Prophet, may God bless him and grant him peace, regarding the vision of the Prophet, may God’s prayers and peace be upon him, regarding the vision of the Prophet, may God bless him and grant him peace He was greeted with regard to vision, and he explained the two sayings of Ibn Abbas and Aisha on the same subject, including an area of conflict between them.
The present paper is devoted to studying the imitation of some Quran phrases and words in the tale of "The Leprous Girl". The paper aims at identifying the common ground between the tale and some great stories related in the verses of the holy Quran, and comparing the original work with the present translation. First, we translated the tale from Russian into Arabic so as to be tackled in study, and then an identification of the commonalities between this tale and the Quran wording is made. It was found that texting is clear in the original text of the tale, hence the need for this paper. By studying the texts and phrases employed by the writer, we observe that the text is influenced by the Quranic stories whose effects have been reflecte
... Show MoreThe present study attempts to identify some of the differences between the skull bones of two species Cyprinus carpio and Carassius carassius, which belong to the Cyprinidae family. The study is a taxonomic diagnostic study between the two species which are considered local fish abundant in the Iraqi aquatic environment
Objective: preparing exercises for the third intensity zone for strength and speed for the legs, and identifying their effect on some physiological and biochemical indicators for (the level of lactic acid concentration, the concentration of sodium bicarbonate, the concentration level of (potassium K+) and (sodium Na+) in the blood, and the number of breathing times (RF) Research methodology: the experimental research method was adopted by designing the experimental and control groups on a sample of Army Sports Club players amounting to (16) players, deliberately selected (100%) from their community using a comprehensive enumeration method, and then divided into two groups of equal number, After determining the tests for physiologica
... Show MoreThe aim of the research: To identify the trends of students of the College of Physical Education and Sports Sciences towards modern teaching methods. To determine the type of strategies used that students prefer in practical lessons. In light of the research results, the researcher adopted the descriptive method because it is appropriate for the study. The research community is represented by students of the College of Physical Education and Sports Sciences (fourth stage), amounting to (320) students. Conclusions: The research results indicate that students of the College of Physical Education and Sports Sciences have positive and strong attitudes towards using modern teaching methods, and they realize their reality in improving interaction
... Show MoreEnglish allows for consonant sequences at the beginning of words, which poses a challenge for speakers of other languages, especially those whose native languages do not contain such sequences, such as Arabic. Therefore, this study aims to investigate students’ recognition and production of initial consecutive consonants in relation to gender, and the significance of the statistical differences between students in recognition and pronunciation of consecutive consonants. Consequently, a cohort of fifty-two Iraqi college students (18 males and 34 females) were selected as a sample. A multiple-choice test of two phases was used as a research instrument. The results showed that females outperformed males in recognizing and producing c
... Show MoreRecords of two regionalized variables were processed for each of porosity and permeability of reservoir rocks in Zubair Formation (Zb-109) south Iraq as an indication of the most important reservoir property which is the homogeneity,considering their important results in criterion most needed for primary and enhanced oil reservoirs.The results of dispersion treatment,the statistical incorporeal indications,boxes plots,rhombus style and tangents angles of intersected circles indicated by confidence interval of porosity and permeability data, have shown that the reservoir rocks of Zubair units (LS),(1L) and (DJ) have reservoir properties of high quality,in contrast to that of Zubair units (MS) and (AB)which have reservoir properties of less q
... Show More