Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.
Abstract
The research aims to identify the mediator role of workplace spirituality in the relationship between psychological capital and entrepreneurial behavior: field research to a sample opinions from employees at the center of the Iraqi ministry of Oil . The importance of the current research emerged from paucity of studies that have attempted to identify and know the nature of the relationship between the variables as well as trying to find the current address and realistic problem directly affects the performance of employees in the Iraqi oil sector.
In order to achieve the goal of research the use of the analytical method (quantitative)
... Show MoreImpact Resistance training with and against the trajectory of the motor in some physical abilities and the BioA 100-meter, mechanical racing run for young people. That Training Jogging for different distances Melt -Rubber ropes According to direction and reversed movement With Obligations To the border of scientific of components Pregnancy Training represents to a training trend Aimed To Events Developments In The link between Starting and running, According to the specific mechanical requirements Have It Of Development of force Explosive and quick and their components which To give Border To the level Special speed for Stages Sprint run 100 m and amounts Efforts Required instantaneous powers. Noted Researcher In That Over there Repeat For
... Show MoreThe research aims to apply one of the techniques of management accounting, which is the Quality Function Deployment(QFD) on the Pepsi product in Baghdad Soft Drinks Company and to determine the technical requirements objectively that have been applied in practice in Baghdad Soft Drinks Company / a private shareholding company, as it focuses on meeting the quality requirements and achieving positive quality to provide a product It meets the requirements of current and future customers, hence the importance of research that indicates that the Quality Function Deployment(QFD) is a useful tool to develop the requirements of new products, being a design process driven by customers through their voices, and thus contribute to achieve a competi
... Show MoreThe importance of this research has been to rationalize the cost of producing maize seeds through the followers of modern techniques and methods in agricultural activities such as genetic engineering for the purpose of increasing production efficiency of maize seeds as well as the importance of calculating seed cost rationalization through the ABC system and thus rationalizing government spending. The research is based on a single hypothesis that the use of genetic engineering on corn seeds works to:increase production efficiency of seeds and savings in agricultural inputs, calculation of rationalization through the cost system on the basis of activity ABC The research reached a number of conclus
... Show MoreAccelerates operating managements in the facilities contemporary business environment toward redefining processes and strategies that you need to perform tasks of guaranteeing them continue in an environment performance dominated by economic globalization and the circumstances of uncertainty attempt the creation of a new structure through multiple pages seek to improve profitability and sustainable growth in performance in a climatefocuses on the development of institutional processes, reduce costs and achieve customer satisfaction to meet their demands and expectations are constantly changing. The research was presented structural matrix performance combines methodology Alsigma in order to improve customer satisfaction significantly bet
... Show MoreThe issue of nuclear proliferation is one of the most vital issues as it reflects a form of dealing in the field of international relations. Therefore, the Middle East region has taken great interest in reducing the levels of nuclear armament and acquiring nuclear power within the strategic framework of the international and regional powers. The establishment of a nuclear-weapon-free zone in the Middle East region is currently one of the most important international and regional arrangements for controlling the levels of nuclear proliferation and attempting to build a state of stability and balance. In the Middle East and the world. The importance of the research comes from the fact that it deals with an important and vital issue
... Show MoreThe effect of Wood Flour addition to the gamma alumina powder used in the preparation of gamma alumina (ɤ-Al2O3) catalyst carrier extrudates on the pore volume and BET surface area physical properties was investigated. Two parameters which are size of wood flour particles and its quantity were studied. The sizes of wood flour particles used are 150 µm, 212 µm and 500 µm and the weight percentage added to the gamma alumina powder during the preparation of the extrudates are (1%, 3%, 5% and 10%). The results showed that the addition of wood flour to the gamma alumina powder in order to get gamma alumina extrudates used as catalyst carrier is one of the successful methods to improve the pore volume
... Show MoreThe present research aims to test the effect of cognitive complexity as an independent variable in organizational agility as a responsive variable among the leaders working at the headquarters of the Iraqi Petroleum Products Distribution Company.
To conclude a number of recommendations that contribute in the organizational agility in the company, and due to the importance of this research in public organizations and its notable role in community organizations. The research was carried out on a random sample of 101 individuals out of a total of 308, which represents the high leaders in the company (general managers, head of departments, and division officials). A questionnaire was used as information
... Show MoreAntibiotic resistance is a problem of deep scientific concern both in hospital and community settings. Rapid detection in clinical laboratories is essential for the judicious recognition of antimicrobial resistant organisms. So, the growth of Uropathgenic Escherichia coli (UPEC) isolates with Multidrug-resistant (MDR) and Extensively Drug-resistant (XDR) profiles that thwart therapy for (UTIs) has been detected and has straight squeezed costs and extended hospital stays. This study aims to detect MDR- and XDR-UPEC isolates. Out of 42 UPEC clinical isolates were composed from UTI patients. The bacterial strains were recognized by standard laboratory protocols. Susceptibility to antibiotic was measured by the standard disk diffusi
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