Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.
The probability is considered one of the grammatical cases in all languages of the world. Expressions of probability in Spanish language are expressed by various structures, expressions and some verb tenses. By this study explains the grammatical cases, the verbal periphrases, the impersonal expressions, the future tenses (simple and perfect) and the conditional mode of probability in Spanish language .We have explains these cases in detail with examples that have extracted from various spanish grammar books .The specific objective of this study is to know the resources and constructions of probability in Spanish language and their translation in Arabic language.
The researchers seek to shed light on the importance of accounting disclosure on social responsibility, and the research aims to provide a theoretical approach to social accounting and its disclosure, identify the concept of sustainable development, highlight the theoretical foundations of sustainable development and employ disclosure of social responsibility towards achieving the goals of sustainable development, and identify the impact of The accounting disclosure on social responsibility in achieving sustainable development goals, and the research problem can be reviewed by asking the following question (Does the accounting disclosure of the social responsibility of economic units contribute to achieving sustainable developmen
... Show MoreBackground: Enterococcus faecalis is emerging as an important endodontic pathogen, which can persist in the environment for extended periods after treatment and may cause endodontic failure. It is known to produce biofilms, a community of bacteria enclosed within a protective polymeric matrix. This study aimed to establish whether the biofilm formation by Enterococcus faecalis can be inhibited with steralium, co+steralium, and 5% sodium hypochlorite in the root surface environment. Materials and Methods: Extracted human teeth were biomechanically prepared, vertically sectioned, placed in the tissue culture wells exposing the root canal surface to E. faecalis to form a biofilm. At the end of the 3rd and 6th weeks, all groups were treated fo
... Show MoreThe concept of TQM is based on one of the concepts that combine administrative and innovative methods. The aim of the research is to demonstrate the dimensions of TQM in enhancing the satisfaction of the taxpayers through a survey of a sample of officials in the General Authority for Taxation and 50 officials. In the collection of data and information, and the results were analyzed using the SPSS program to find the most important compounds and factors in he method of analysis.
The research problem was represented by the non-application of the General Authority for Taxation to the entrances and modern practices in the administrative work. The results of some of the complications that accompany the tax accounting process, which af
... Show MoreA new ligand [ 2-chloro-N- (1,5-dimethyl-3-oxo-2-phenyl-2,3-dihydro -1H-pyrazol- 4-ylcarbamothioyl)acetamide](L) was synthesized by reacting the Chloro acetyl isothiocyanate with 4-aminoantipyrine,The ligand was characterized by(C HNS) elemental microanalysis and the spectral measurements including Uv-Vis ,IR ,1H and13C NMR spectra, some transition metals complex of this ligand were prepared and characterized by Uv-Vis, FT-IR spectra, conductivity measurements, magnetic susceptibility and atomic absorption. From the obtained results the molecular formula of all prepared complexes were [M(L)2(H2O)2]Cl2 (M+2 =Mn, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd and Hg),the proposed geometrical structure for all complexes were octahedral.
To achieve excellence in the quality of performance in school sports administration, which has suffered a lot of problems and constraints on the administrative system, supervision and education level as well as the regulatory environment and available resources available and contribute to the provision of some processors and overcome difficulties to participate in the formation of the individual good of itself and society through sports activities. Hence the importance came this study to create a reference to the quality of the performance criteria school sports from the perspective of supervisors (specialists and technicians) in the districts of breeding Baghdad, to be of help to all those involved in school sports and maintaining an excep
... Show MoreThe objective of present study was to compare of several methods for estimating the degree of heritability and calculating the number of genes using generation mean analysis of maize (
Marketing studies are important to researchers and policy makers. The study of marketing margins and efficiency is important to understand the marketing problems that face parties of the marketing process. The aim of the research is to measure the efficiency margins and the most important marketing channels for marketing chicken meat in the province of Baghdad and to identify the most important marketing problems facing marketers of the commodity. The absolute marketing margins were (0, 1360, 1570, 1545) for the four channels respectively, while the price paid by the consumer was variable according to the marketing channel (3150, 3790, 3920, 4065) for the four channels respectively. T
A field study aimed at identifying the sources of mutual complaints among the Directorates of Education staff of their departments and management and run it in their daily dealings with principals in the province of Baghdad, and adopt approach. It was determined the research consists of (2357) male and female employees and 305 randomly stratified simple by the rate of (7%) from the research community as the number of sample reached (167) male and female employees, and selected sample was randomly stratified simple by the rate of (39.67%) of the research community, as the number of sample was (121) principals. It was constructed two questionnaires, the first included (28) items and the second contained (28) items. And the two researchers
... Show MoreObjectives: To assess levels of premenstrual psychological disorders of the students in Bab Al-Mua’dham Complex and to find out the relationship between the levels of premenstrual psychological and physical disorders and some demographic characteristics of the students. Methodology: A descriptive study was accomplished throughout the period from the 1st of October, 2015 to the 8th of July, 2016 to assess the psychological and physical problems. A purposive sample of 313 students distributed among different colleges of Bab Al-Mua’dam complex distributed as following: 82 students are from college of Arts; 79 students are from College of Languages; 48 students are from college of Islamic Sciences: and 104 are from College of Nursing. For t
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