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A modified time series model using conditional and unconditional estimations with applications to a real dataset
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Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 19 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Study of the Relationship for Neutron and Proton Skin Thickness on the Neutron Equation of State for 18Ne-18O Pair Mirror Nuclei
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Within the framework of the shell model, the single-particle wave functions of Hartree-Fock approximation adopted with Skyrme interactions like kxtb, Skxs25, Sly4 and Bsk9 to get the thickness of the neutron skin, the mirror radii and the charges mirror radii for 18Ne-18O pair mirror nucleus. The wave functions were calculated using the NuShellX@MSU shell model code. The computed values of root-mean-square-radii are inuenced by the type of interaction employed. The symmetry energy and its slope at nuclear saturation density and the mirror energy displacement were also determined. Comparisons between theoretical and experimental data were made and it was concluded that the data are well described in of this pair mirror nucleus

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 04 2020
Journal Name
Frontiers In Plant Science
Suppression of Arabidopsis Mediator Subunit-Encoding MED18 Confers Broad Resistance Against DNA and RNA Viruses While MED25 Is Required for Virus Defense
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Publication Date
Wed Sep 24 2025
Journal Name
International Journal Of Environmental Analytical Chemistry
Mesoporous activated carbon from eggshell waste via H₃PO₄ chemical activation and its application in the removal of Janus Green B dye
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The main objective of this study was to evaluate the adsorption efficiency of two adsorbent materials, Iraqi chicken eggshells (ESh) and activated carbon (AC) derived from ESh powder for the removal of a cationic dye (Janus green B; JGD) from aqueous solution. Activated carbon was synthesised from ESh using a simple chemical activation method using phosphoric acid as the activating agent. The physicochemical properties of the adsorbents were characterised by the Brunauer–Emmett–Teller (BET) method, FT-IR spectroscopy, scanning electron microscopy (SEM), energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS), inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectroscopy (ICP-OES), and point of zero charge (pHpzc). The results of BET analysis confirmed th

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 24 2025
Journal Name
International Journal Of Environmental Analytical Chemistry
Mesoporous activated carbon from eggshell waste via H₃PO₄ chemical activation and its application in the removal of Janus Green B dye
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The main objective of this study was to evaluate the adsorptionefficiency of two adsorbent materials, Iraqi chicken eggshells (ESh)and activated carbon (AC) derived from ESh powder for theremoval of a cationic dye (Janus green B; JGD) from aqueoussolution. Activated carbon was synthesised from ESh usinga simple chemical activation method using phosphoric acid asthe activating agent. The physicochemical properties of the adsor-bents were characterised by the Brunauer–Emmett–Teller (BET)method, FT-IR spectroscopy, scanning electron microscopy(SEM), energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS), inductivelycoupled plasma optical emission spectroscopy (ICP-OES), andpoint of zero charge (pHpzc). The results of BET analysis confirmedthat AC has

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 02 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The impact of moving the educational activities in the conservation of literary texts and the development of literary taste in the fifth grade students moral: The impact of moving the educational activities in the conservation of literary texts and the development of literary taste in the fifth grade students moral
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Abstract
The study was conducted in Baghdad and aimed to:
The impact of moving the educational activities in the conservation of literary
texts and the development of literary taste in the fifth grade students moral "by
verifying the validity of hypotheses Elsafreeten following forms:
The first hypothesis:
- There are no differences in women with statistical significance between means
of scores of students three experimental groups, the experimental group first
used upstream activities in the teaching material of literature and texts, the
second experimental group used the activities of building in the teaching
material itself and the experimental group the third use activities concluding
taught the same

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Analysis of the requirements of electronic management and its role improving The performance of human resources: Applied research at Iraqi general insurance company
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The study seeks to identify e-governance requirements in human resources management, which are (administrative requirements, technical, human, financial, and security) which is a new style differs from the traditional management pattern, where work depends on multiple forms and methods of Tools, (e. g. computers and various electronic software), by relying on powerful information systems that help to make management decisions as quickly and less effortless and less expensive to keep up with the tremendous technological advancements in the field of information and communication technology revolution.

 The sample included 132 Person who constitute a position (Director General, assistant Director General, section managers and d

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 15 2022
Journal Name
Al-academy
Strategies of brain-based learning theory and its impact on the achievement of students of the Department of Art Education in Teaching Methods
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The aim of the current research is to reveal the effect of using brain-based learning theory strategies on the achievement of Art Education students in the subject of Teaching Methods. The experimental design with two equal experimental and control groups was used. The experimental design with two independent and equal groups was used, and the total of the research sample was (60) male and female students, (30) male and female students represented the experimental group, and (30) male and female students represented the control group. The researcher prepared the research tool represented by the cognitive achievement test consisting of (20) questions, and it was characterized by honesty and reliability, and the experiment lasted (6) weeks

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 11 2022
Journal Name
Chemical Papers
Surface tensiometry study of the interfacial phenomena in the mixed surfactant solutions of sodium di-2-ethylhexylsulfosuccinate (AOT) and hexadecyl benzylammonium chloride (HDBAC)
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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Veterinary Practitioner
ESTIMATION OF BRAIN NATRIURETIC PEPTIDE HORMONE AS PREDICTOR OF BRAIN STROKE AND NEUROCOGNITIVE IMPAIRMENT IN CHRONIC KIDNEY DISEASE PATIENTS IN BAGHDAD PROVINCE/IRAQ
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Present investigation aimed to study plasma BNP hormone estimation as predictor of brain stroke and neurocognitive in relative with other limitations in CKD patient. The case control experimental study was conducted on CKD patient at Yarmuk Hospital at Baghdad Province, Iraq from February to April 2020. The results showed that there were significant variances (P< 0.05) between CKD patients and control group, there was significant increase in BNP hormone and cystatin-C levels at patient, while ihematological parameters were significantly decreased. The parameters of lipid profile were significantly increased (P<0.05). The result revealed that there was relationship between BNP hormone level and CKD. This support that BNP level is related wit

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 25 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Determining the concentrations of radon and the rate of annual effective dose in some types of drinking water available in the Iraqi markets
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           In this research, radon concentrations in some types of healthy drinking water samples available in Iraq's market were measured using a technique called Durridge RAD-7-H2O with closed loop. Then the rate of annual effective dose in human taken this water is determined.

          It was found that, radon concentrations in studied samples ranged between 1.2 Bq.m-3 to 142 Bq.m-3. The results of the radon concentrations and the rate of annual effective dose for drinking water samples were significantly lower than the USEPA and WHO recommended limits that equal 500 Bq/m3 and 1 mSv/y resp

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