Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.
3-(4-hydroxyphenyl)-2-(3-(4-nitrobenzoyl) thioureido) propanoic acid (HNP) a new ligand was synthesized by reaction of Tyrosine with (4-Nitrobenzoyl isothiocyanate) by using acetone as a solvent. The prepared ligand (HNP) has been characterized by elemental analysis (CHNS), infrared (FT-IR), electronic spectral (Ultraviolet visible) and(1H,13C-Nuclear Magnetic Resonance) spectra. Some Divalent metal ion complexes of (HNP) were prepared and spectroscopic studies by Fourier transform infrared (FTIR), electronic spectral(UV-Vis), molar conductance, magnetic susceptibility and atomic absorption. The results measured showed the formula of six prepared complexes were [M (HNP)2] (M+2 = Manganese, Cobalt, Nickel, Znic, Cadmium and Mercury),from the
... Show MoreIntroduction: Due to the high prevalence of diseases associated with obesity. There are several factors, including the genetic factors, it is known that the genes Fat mass and obesity-associated FTO rs9939609, the lipoprotein lipase (LPL) Ser447Ter, and the chymase 1 (CMA1) -1903A > G are associated with lipoprotein metabolism. The aim of the present investigation was to study the association of the FTO, LPL, and CMA1 genes with obesity in the children and adolescents population of the Rostov region, Russia. Methods: In a case-control study involving 500 children and adolescents aged from 3 to 17 years, the association between the genetic polymorphisms of the FTO rs9939609, LPL Ser447Ter (rs328) and CMA1 -1903A > G (rs1800875) with the obes
... Show Moremethodology six sigma Help to reduce defects by solving problems effectively, and works Lean to reduce losses through the flow of the manufacturing process and when integrating these two methodologies (Lean and six sigma), the methodology of Lean six sigma will form the entrance to the organizers of the optimization process and increase the quality and reduce lead times and costs . by focusing on the needs of the customer. this process uses statistical tools and techniques to analyze and improve processes.
We have conducted this research in the General Company for Electrical Industries and adopted its product (machine cooling water three taps) as a sample for research. In order to determine t
... Show MoreBackground: Malnutrition during human growth affects the size of the tissues at different stages of life, body proportions, body chemistry, as well as quality and texture of tissues. Teeth are particularly sensitive to malnutrition. Malnutrition may affect odontometric measurement involving tooth size dimensions. The aim of this study was to estimate the effect of nutrition on teeth size dimension measurements among students aged 15 years old. Materials and methods: This study was conducted among malnourished group in comparison to well-nourished group matching with age and gender. The present study included 167 students aged 15 years (83 malnourished and 84 well-nourished). The assessment of nutritional status was done by using body mass
... Show MoreThrough the researchers' acquaintance with the previous studies, the problem was identified as that the preparation of training curricula in all its units must be based on accurate scientific foundations. Positively affect the type of attack and its implication in the presence of correlational relations, whether direct or indirect, i.e., precedence in training and in preparing units Therefore, the researcher decided to build a causal model to know the relationships to show the best model of the direct straight attack. The study aimed to build a causal model for the most important physical measurements and kinetic capabilities of the direct straight attack in the research sample. The two researchers used the descriptive approach in t
... Show MoreCharge transfer in styryl dyes STQ-1, STQ-2,and STQ-3 with organic media system has been studied theoretically depending on the Franck- Condon rule and continuum dielectric model . The reorientation energies (eV) were evaluated theoretically depending on dipole momentum, dielectric constant , and refrective index n. The rate constant of charge transfer has been calculated depending on the reorientation energy (eV) ,effective free energy , potential height barrier , and coupling coefficient . A matlap program has been written to calculated the rate constant of charge transfer and other parameter. The results of calculations show that STQ-2 dye is more reaction for charge transfer compare with STQ-1 and STQ-3 dyes
This research provides a novel technique for using metal organic frameworks (HKUST-1) as a gas storage system for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) in Iraqi vehicles to avoid the drawbacks of the currently employed method of LPG gas storage. A low-cost adsorbent called HKUST-1 was prepared and characterized in this research to investigate its ability for propane storage at different temperatures (25, 30, 35, and 40 oC) and pressures of (1-7) bar. HKUST-1 was made using a hydrothermal method and characterized using powder X-ray diffraction, BET surface area, scanning electron microscopic (SEM), and Fourier Transforms infrared spectroscopy (FTIR). The HKUST-1 was produced using a hydrothermal technique and possesses a high crys
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